1252 Straits Tpke · Middlebury, CT
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $829 – $1,539
Heat risk 4/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 97°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 27.0%
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 4 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +21.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- DSCR +6.7/10.0
- 1% rule +5.7/10.0
- Schools +5.4/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Livability +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$299,900
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
SUBJECT TO PROBATE APPROVAL, AS-IS, WHERE-IS CONDITION NO FHA, CHFA OR VA LENDING AVAILABLE. NEEDS WORK. LOTS OF HARDWOOD FLOORS, DETACHED 2 CAR GARAGE WORKSHOP AND STORAGE LOFT. LARGE ROOMS, SHARED DRIVEWAY, 24 HOUR NOTICE SHOWINGTIME. SUBJECT TO PROBATE APPROVAL. AS-IS, WHERE-IS CONDITION. NO FHA, CHFA OR VA LENDING AVAILABLE. MAKE DEPOSIT CHECK(s) TO: ATTORNEY ANDREW PIANKA TRUSTEE 315 CENTER ROCK GREEN, SUITE #2 OXFORD, CT 06478
Key facts
- Storage loft
- Workshop
- Hardwood floors
Tags
Property features AI
Exterior
- Parking: Detached 2-car garage; Paved surfaces; Off-street parking (3 total spaces)
- Utilities: Public water connected; Public sewer connected; Domestic hot water
- Home design: Single-family home
- Construction: Frame construction; Wood and shingle exterior siding; Stone foundation; Asphalt shingle roof
- Exterior features: Deck; Interior lot; Sloping lot
Interior
- Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
- Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
- Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Oil-fired hot water system; Oil fuel tank located in the basement
- Interior features: Mud room; Workshop; Full unfinished basement; Attic with floored storage and walk-up access; Potential in-law apartment with first-floor access
- Laundry & utility: Laundry on the 2nd floor; Additional laundry/utility space on the lower level
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $425 ($5k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
Location & tenants
- Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
- Regional School District 15 (suburban): math 56% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #46 of 153 in CT (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
- Zoned schools: Middlebury Elementary School (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B, #118 of 553 statewide, top 23%, 319 students, 18% FRL); Pomperaug Regional High School (math 54% / reading 74%, grade B-, #37 of 194 statewide, top 19%, 1,039 students, 14% FRL).
- Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 502 units permitted in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region in 2024 (171 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Negotiation context
- Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
- Current owner paid $145k; list at $300k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.07% ✓
- Cap rate
- 7.99%
- Cash-on-cash
- 6.07%
- DSCR
- 1.27
- GRM
- 7.8
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $439,824
- Comps found
- 12
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 201 Crest St | 0.32mi | 3/1.5 (-1) | 1,840 (-0%) | 12mo | $385,000 | $209 | 68 |
| 478 Lakeside Blvd W | 0.44mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,864 (+1%) | 14mo | $482,300 | $259 | 58 |
| 32 Yale Ave | 0.61mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,861 (+1%) | 5mo | $390,000 | $210 | 57 |
| 1 Yale Ave | 0.49mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,788 (-3%) | 11mo | $425,000 | $238 | 54 |
| 35 Deepwood Dr | 0.62mi | 3/1.5 (-1) | 1,836 (-1%) | 13mo | $306,000 | $167 | 52 |
| 38 E Ridge Dr | 0.73mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,780 (-4%) | 1mo | $510,000 | $287 | 50 |
| 1440 Straits Tpke | 0.35mi | 3/2.5 (-1) | 2,046 (+11%) | 11mo | $505,000 | $247 | 46 |
| 25 Parkwood Ave | 0.58mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,602 (-13%) | 5mo | $340,000 | $212 | 38 |
| 604 Lakeside Blvd W | 0.57mi | 3/3.0 (-1) | 2,088 (+13%) | 6mo | $495,000 | $237 | 34 |
| 76 Three Mile Hill Rd | 0.62mi | 4/3.0 | 2,088 (+13%) | 10mo | $536,000 | $257 | 33 |
| 332 Lakeside Blvd E | 0.62mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,607 (-13%) | 11mo | $285,000 | $177 | 31 |
| 43 Merideth Rd | 0.64mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,576 (-15%) | 14mo | $385,000 | $244 | 25 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -6.9%
- Equity multiple
- 0.74×
- Total profit
- $-21,453
- Equity at exit
- $44,716
- IRR
- 2.7%
- Equity multiple
- 1.20×
- Total profit
- $16,479
- Equity at exit
- $25,930
Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 27 Tenant-Leaning
- State Connecticut
- 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 06762
- Home prices YoY
- -22.6%
- Active inventory
- 60
- Price-to-rent
- 7.8×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $3,216 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,573
- Tax from tax record
- −$418 /mo · $5,011/yr
- Insurance
- −$125
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$675
- Net cashflow
- $425
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $595 | -5% $510 | +0% $425 | +5% $340 | +10% $255 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $171 | -5% $298 | +0% $425 | +5% $552 | +10% $679 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $576 | -0.5pp $501 | base $425 | +0.5pp $347 | +1.0pp $268 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $74,975
- Closing costs
- $8,997
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Listing history 7 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $299,900 Active 8 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $299,900 Active 7 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $299,900 Active 6 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $299,900 Active 5 DOM
-
2026-06-14days on market $299,900 Active 3 DOM
-
2026-06-13remarks 440-char remark
-
2026-06-13$299,900 Active 2 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $5,011 · $418/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $5,714 · $476/mo
- Expected delta
- +$703/yr (+$59/mo · 14.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $38,586
- − Mortgage interest
- −$16,799
- − Property taxes
- −$5,011
- − Insurance
- −$1,500
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$3,087
- − Management
- −$3,087
- − Depreciation
- −$8,724
- Taxable income
- $379
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$91
- After-tax cash flow
- $5,009/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Regional School District 15
- NCES district ID
- 0903537
- Math proficiency
- 56% ▼ -15.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 64% ▼ -11.00%
- Median HH income
- $84,697
- Composite
- 54.36/100
- National rank
- #1361
- State rank
- #46 of 153 in CT
Livability — Middlebury
No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)
Census & demographics
- Population (ZIP)
- 7,736
Population outlook (Naugatuck Valley County) Hauer SSP2
- By 2040
- 496,846
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (83%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 83% Asian 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
- Common ancestry
- Russian 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3%
- Foreign-born
- 12% · China, Canada
- Languages at home
- 87% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Arabic 3% Chinese 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Naugatuck Valley
- 2024 margin
- Lean R (+7.4) · D 45.6% · R 53.0% · Other 1.4%
- All cycles
- 2024: R+7.4
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -53.23%
- Current HPI
- 182.4523
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.06%
- F500 in state
- 38
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Machinery | 4 | $38B |
|
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| Insurance | 3 | $71B |
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| Financial Services | 2 | $25B |
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| Transportation / Logistics | 2 | $18B |
|
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| Healthcare | 1 | $247B |
|
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| Telecommunications | 1 | $55B |
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Price history
+106.8% since first listed2 events — show timeline
- 2026-06-10 Listed $299,900 Smart MLS
- 1996-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
Property tax history
+1.7%/yrLatest (2022): $5,011 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…