2 Aspen at Wildflower Mnrs · Wentzville, MO 63385

$272,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,279 sqft · SingleFamily · 365 Days on market

$213/sqft · 21% below area Est $347k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Pre-Construction. To Be Built Home ready to personalize your dream home! LIST PRICE and PHOTOS are for 3BR, 2BA Aspen Ranch. Pricing will vary depending on interior/exterior selections. This home features a stunning open great room with available vaulted ceilings or gas fireplace. Kitchen includes extensive cabinetry, plus optional breakfast bar open to the great room. The breakfast room hosts sliding doors that can open to a patio or deck. The master suite includes walk-in closet, large window, and additional selections including coffered ceiling, double vanity, or walk-in shower in master bath. Two car garage, soffits & fascia and much more! Personal selections include bay windows, main floor laundry, and great room extension. Enjoy incredible customer service and McBride Homes' 10 year builders warranty! Wildflower amenities include a sports court, pavilion with picnic tables, fire pit, pickle ball courts, and BBQ pits. Display photos shown.

Key facts

• Extensive cabinetry
• Gas fireplace
• Open great room

Tags

• OPEN GREAT ROOM
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• GAS FIREPLACE
• EXTENSIVE CABINETRY
• OPTIONAL BREAKFAST BAR
• SLIDING DOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $273k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-336 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (17.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (28.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (28.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.4% in Wentzville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#14 in MO, #1,402 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Wentzville R-IV (suburban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 699 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 365 days — a 12% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 3% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $196,199 (28.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 365 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.28%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $346,838
• List price: $272,900
• Delta: -21.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
113 Day Lily Ln	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,279 (0%)	3mo	$339,900	$266	97
120 Day Lily Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,279 (0%)	4mo	$364,004	$285	89
31 Ivy Brook Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,295 (+1%)	3mo	$275,000	$212	82
5 Tiger Dr	0.19mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,215 (-5%)	2mo	$310,000	$255	74
1251 Hepperman Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,247 (-2%)	1mo	$480,000	$385	74
146 Day Lily Ln	0.17mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,405 (+10%)	6mo	$314,509	$224	64
1059 Chesterfield Dr	0.64mi	2/2.5	1,228 (-4%)	1mo	$235,000	$191	61
1027 Chesterfield Dr	0.68mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,285 (+0%)	3mo	$215,000	$167	58
317 Columbia Dr	0.61mi	2/1.5	1,214 (-5%)	5mo	$230,000	$189	57
511 River Forest Dr	0.59mi	2/1.5	1,206 (-6%)	5mo	$239,900	$199	56
245 New Richmond Dr	0.46mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,386 (+8%)	2mo	$264,900	$191	56
709 College Park Dr	0.68mi	2/2.5	1,184 (-7%)	2mo	$235,000	$198	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-63,677
• Equity at exit: $40,690

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-74,878
• Equity at exit: $23,595

Cash invested: $76,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63385

• Home prices YoY: -31.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 699
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,962 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,431
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$341 /mo · $4,094/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-336

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,387

Max offer price $224,283

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-147	-5% $-242	+0% $-336	+5% $-430	+10% $-525
Rent	-10% $-491	-5% $-413	+0% $-336	+5% $-258	+10% $-181
Rate	-1.0pp $-199	-0.5pp $-267	base $-336	+0.5pp $-407	+1.0pp $-479

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,225
• Closing costs: $8,187
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
307 Columbia Dr Wentzville, MO	2.0	2.5	1206	$1,750	$1.45	19d	1	0.59mi
24 Chesterfield Ct Unit n/a Wentzville, MO	3.0	2.5	1404	$2,150	$1.53	5d	1	0.79mi
505 Dogleg Ct Wentzville, MO	2.0	2.0	1374	$2,400	$1.75	25d	1	0.95mi
17 Brookfield Ct Wentzville, MO	3.0	2.0	1747	$2,340	$1.34	3d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-05
   days on market $272,900 Active 365 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $272,900 Active 364 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $272,900 Active 363 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $272,900 Active 362 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $272,900 Active 361 DOM
6. 2026-02-27
   price $272,900 962-char remark

   Show marketing remark (962 chars)

   Pre-Construction. To Be Built Home ready to personalize your dream home! LIST PRICE and PHOTOS are for 3BR, 2BA Aspen Ranch. Pricing will vary depending on interior/exterior selections. This home features a stunning open great room with available vaulted ceilings or gas fireplace. Kitchen includes extensive cabinetry, plus optional breakfast bar open to the great room. The breakfast room hosts sliding doors that can open to a patio or deck. The master suite includes walk-in closet, large window, and additional selections including coffered ceiling, double vanity, or walk-in shower in master bath. Two car garage, soffits & fascia and much more! Personal selections include bay windows, main floor laundry, and great room extension. Enjoy incredible customer service and McBride Homes' 10 year builders warranty! Wildflower amenities include a sports court, pavilion with picnic tables, fire pit, pickle ball courts, and BBQ pits. Display photos shown.

7. 2025-08-29
   price $269,900 962-char remark

   Show marketing remark (962 chars)

   Pre-Construction. To Be Built Home ready to personalize your dream home! LIST PRICE and PHOTOS are for 3BR, 2BA Aspen Ranch. Pricing will vary depending on interior/exterior selections. This home features a stunning open great room with available vaulted ceilings or gas fireplace. Kitchen includes extensive cabinetry, plus optional breakfast bar open to the great room. The breakfast room hosts sliding doors that can open to a patio or deck. The master suite includes walk-in closet, large window, and additional selections including coffered ceiling, double vanity, or walk-in shower in master bath. Two car garage, soffits & fascia and much more! Personal selections include bay windows, main floor laundry, and great room extension. Enjoy incredible customer service and McBride Homes' 10 year builders warranty! Wildflower amenities include a sports court, pavilion with picnic tables, fire pit, pickle ball courts, and BBQ pits. Display photos shown.

8. 2025-06-04
   listed $264,900 Active 962-char remark

   Show marketing remark (962 chars)

   Pre-Construction. To Be Built Home ready to personalize your dream home! LIST PRICE and PHOTOS are for 3BR, 2BA Aspen Ranch. Pricing will vary depending on interior/exterior selections. This home features a stunning open great room with available vaulted ceilings or gas fireplace. Kitchen includes extensive cabinetry, plus optional breakfast bar open to the great room. The breakfast room hosts sliding doors that can open to a patio or deck. The master suite includes walk-in closet, large window, and additional selections including coffered ceiling, double vanity, or walk-in shower in master bath. Two car garage, soffits & fascia and much more! Personal selections include bay windows, main floor laundry, and great room extension. Enjoy incredible customer service and McBride Homes' 10 year builders warranty! Wildflower amenities include a sports court, pavilion with picnic tables, fire pit, pickle ball courts, and BBQ pits. Display photos shown.

9. 2025-04-18
   historical
10. 2025-03-17
    price $284,900
11. 2024-05-11
    price $279,900
12. 2024-04-17
    listed $291,900 Active
13. 2024-04-05
    historical
14. 2024-02-15
    price $279,900
15. 2024-02-01
    price $276,900
16. 2024-01-02
    price $274,900
17. 2023-11-01
    price $269,900
18. 2023-08-01
    price $284,900
19. 2023-03-20
    price $279,900
20. 2023-02-10
    listed $269,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,544
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,287
• − Property taxes: −$4,094
• − Insurance: −$1,364
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,884
• − Management: −$1,884
• − Depreciation: −$7,939
• Taxable loss: −$8,907
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,138
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,894/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wentzville R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2931650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,961
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2994
• State rank: #32 of 324 in MO

Livability — Wentzville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #1402

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wentzville, MO
• County: Saint Charles County · 399,703 people
• City population: 51,330
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 51,330
• Household income: $112,199
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 662.0

Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,857 people
• By 2030: 461,707 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 503,222 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 534,684 · +22.1%
• By 2075: 597,047 · +36.4%
• By 2100: 609,682 · +39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+17.5 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+21.0 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.98%
• Current HPI: 216.4917
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.96%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+1.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $272,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $269,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-04 Listed $264,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-18 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-17 Price Changed $284,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-11 Price Changed $279,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-17 Listed $291,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-05 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-15 Price Changed $279,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-01 Price Changed $276,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-02 Price Changed $274,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-01 Price Changed $269,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-01 Price Changed $284,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-20 Price Changed $279,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-10 Listed $269,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid