64 Aspen St · Clarence, NY 14001

$64,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 60 Days on market

Built 1978 Fair condition $56/sqft · at area comps Est $64k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-maintained and spacious 3-bedroom, 1-bath home in a 55+ community situated on a large, private corner lot. Enjoy the bright and inviting sunroom, filled with natural light from an abundance of windows and doors—truly living up to its name. With no neighbors behind or on one side, you’ll appreciate the peaceful setting surrounded by mature trees and natural landscape—perfect for relaxing with your morning coffee or evening tea. Inside, the home features cathedral ceilings and beautiful natural woodwork throughout the main open living areas, creating a warm and airy atmosphere. The generously sized kitchen offers ample cabinetry and comes fully equipped with all appliances, making it both functional and convenient. Updates include new furnace in Aug. 2020, new roof in Oct. 2021 , and new hot water tank in Dec. 2025

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1978
• Listed 59 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $427 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 1.3% in Clarence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#707 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Clarence Central School District (suburban): math 70% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #94 of 590 in NY (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $62,953 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.20%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $63,845
• List price: $64,900
• Delta: 1.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 Quarry Hl	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,248 (+8%)	6mo	$52,900	$42	76
182 Quarry Hill Ests	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-8%)	10mo	$77,000	$73	68
136 Quarry Hill Ests	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,000 (-13%)	1mo	$72,000	$72	62
—	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-8%)	22mo	$60,000	$57	61
181 Quarry Hl	0.11mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (-15%)	11mo	$38,900	$40	56
110 Quarry Hl	0.14mi	2/1.5 (-1)	980 (-15%)	14mo	$12,500	$13	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $16,694
• Equity at exit: $9,677

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.73×
• Total profit: $49,622
• Equity at exit: $5,611

Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14001

• Home prices YoY: -7.1%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,108 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $974/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $427

Break-even live

Break-even rent $568

Max offer price $64,900

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $472	-5% $449	+0% $427	+5% $405	+10% $382
Rent	-10% $339	-5% $383	+0% $427	+5% $471	+10% $515
Rate	-1.0pp $460	-0.5pp $443	base $427	+0.5pp $410	+1.0pp $393

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,225
• Closing costs: $1,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $64,900 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $64,900 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $64,900 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $64,900 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $64,900 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $64,900 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $64,900 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $64,900 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $64,900 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $64,900 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $64,900 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $64,900 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $64,900 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $64,900 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $64,900 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    listed $67,900 Active 849-char remark

    Show marketing remark (849 chars)

    Well-maintained and spacious 3-bedroom, 1-bath home in a 55+ community situated on a large, private corner lot. Enjoy the bright and inviting sunroom, filled with natural light from an abundance of windows and doors—truly living up to its name. With no neighbors behind or on one side, you’ll appreciate the peaceful setting surrounded by mature trees and natural landscape—perfect for relaxing with your morning coffee or evening tea. Inside, the home features cathedral ceilings and beautiful natural woodwork throughout the main open living areas, creating a warm and airy atmosphere. The generously sized kitchen offers ample cabinetry and comes fully equipped with all appliances, making it both functional and convenient. Updates include new furnace in Aug. 2020, new roof in Oct. 2021 , and new hot water tank in Dec. 2025

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,299
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,635
• − Property taxes: −$974
• − Insurance: −$324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,064
• − Management: −$1,064
• − Depreciation: −$1,888
• Taxable income: $4,349
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,044
• After-tax cash flow: $4,080/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

A well-maintained 3-bedroom mobile home with average exterior and interior conditions, offering a peaceful setting in a 55+ community. Simple exterior updates can significantly boost its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Trim bushes — Improves landscaping and enhances curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Trim bushes — Improves landscaping and enhances curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clarence Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607590
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,568
• Composite: 64.85/100
• National rank: #514
• State rank: #94 of 590 in NY

Livability — Clarence

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #707
• US rank: #13415

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,122

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.68%
• Current HPI: 322.1897
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $67,900 WNYREIS