21627 Carbonari Dr · Houston, TX 77377

$272,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · SingleFamily · 35 Days on market

Built 2026 $174/sqft · 21% below area Est $347k · 21% under $135/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-level home features a low-maintenance and modern design. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas, with a nearby covered patio ready for outdoor entertainment and leisure. Two secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the luxe owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Covered patio
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $273k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-328 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (17.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 723 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,373 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.15%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $347,217
• List price: $272,990
• Delta: -20.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22202 San Lioni Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+2%)	1mo	$311,990	$195	96
19307 Licola Ln	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,627 (+4%)	0mo	$276,990	$170	94
22011 Maddaloni View Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,627 (+4%)	1mo	$296,990	$183	93
21647 Carbonari Dr	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,635 (+4%)	1mo	$330,990	$202	90
22034 Matera Vista Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,642 (+4%)	1mo	$284,990	$174	88
21643 Carbonari Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (+5%)	1mo	$333,990	$202	85
21623 Carbonari Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (+5%)	1mo	$328,990	$199	85
19071 Cetara Villa Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,582 (+1%)	0mo	$249,990	$158	80
21639 Carbonari Dr	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,749 (+11%)	1mo	$337,990	$193	78
22102 La Scorza Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+14%)	1mo	$324,990	$181	75
22026 Matera Vista Ln	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,759 (+12%)	1mo	$299,990	$171	71
21002 Echo Manor Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,513 (-4%)	0mo	$262,000	$173	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-71,295
• Equity at exit: $40,704

10-year hold

• IRR: -47.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.48×
• Total profit: $-112,795
• Equity at exit: $23,603

Cash invested: $76,437 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77377

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 723
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,144 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,432
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$341 /mo · $4,095/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $-328

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,559

Max offer price $225,524

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,248
• Closing costs: $8,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22215 Scarlino Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	2099	$2,450	$1.17	22d	1	0.20mi
20703 Solstice Point Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1912	$1,951	$1.02	1d	1	0.49mi
22023 Lost Lantern Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1601	$1,863	$1.16	1d	1	0.54mi
20718 Round Key Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2133	$1,931	$0.91	5d	1	0.68mi
21210 Echo Manor Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2221	$2,150	$0.97	2d	1	0.79mi
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2051	$2,353	$1.15	1d	1	0.92mi
22719 Klingamans Way Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,689	$1.19	1d	1	0.94mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $135 · $1,620/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $272,990 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $272,990 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $272,990 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 626-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $272,990 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $272,990 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $272,990 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,990 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,990 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $275,990 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,990 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,990 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,990 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,990 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-03-31
    price $275,990 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    This new single-level home features a low-maintenance and modern design. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas, with a nearby covered patio ready for outdoor entertainment and leisure. Two secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the luxe owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

16. 2026-03-25
    listed $315,990 Active 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    This new single-level home features a low-maintenance and modern design. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas, with a nearby covered patio ready for outdoor entertainment and leisure. Two secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the luxe owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,725
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,292
• − Property taxes: −$4,095
• − Insurance: −$1,365
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,058
• − Management: −$2,058
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$7,942
• Taxable loss: −$8,704
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,089
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,847/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,680
• Household income: $129,327
• Rent vs Own: 15.7% rent · 84.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 444.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 9% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.14%
• Current HPI: 235.031
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.69%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $275,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-25 Listed $315,990 Zillow