2205 Lake Foreest Dr Dr · East Columbia, TX 77486

$325,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,022 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2017 0.27 ac lot $161/sqft · at area comps Est $323k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautiful 4-bedroom, 2-bath, single-story home with a formal dining room in the gated community of Columbia Lakes! Nestled on a corner lot surrounded by majestic moss-draped trees, this home offers peaceful green space views and no rear neighbors. The charming stone-and-brick exterior, covered front porch, and open-concept layout are perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Fresh interior paint, cleaned air ducts, tile flooring throughout the main living areas, recently replaced carpet in the spacious primary suite make this home move-in ready. The primary retreat features a large walk-in closet, while covered back patio is the perfect spot to enjoy your morning co

Key facts

• Gated community
• Covered front porch
• Green space views

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• CORNER LOT
• GREEN SPACE VIEWS
• NO REAR NEIGHBORS
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association (Goodwin & Company); Quarterly association fee of $150; Controlled access; Trails; Community pool; Curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with three spaces; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public sewer; Concrete road surface
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2017; Brick, cement siding, and stone exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Greenhouse; Pond on lot; Backs to greenbelt/park

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (15 x 13); Three additional bedrooms on the first floor (14 x 10; 11 x 9; 10 x 11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Has heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Entrance foyer; Kitchen/family room combo; Soaking tub; Tub with shower; Walk-in pantry; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Low emissivity windows; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-362 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (19.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Columbia-Brazoria ISD (town): math 35% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #513 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Columbia El (math 47% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 709 students, 60% FRL); West Brazos J H (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 676 students, 65% FRL); Columbia H S (math 13% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,389 of 1,632 statewide, top 86%, 889 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $261,014 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.90%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,250
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -1.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
214 Montclaire Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,968 (-3%)	1mo	$365,990	$186	83
212 Forest Park Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,878 (-7%)	3mo	$299,990	$160	76
230 Edgewater Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,902 (-6%)	4mo	$309,999	$163	74
2280 Riveroaks Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,885 (-7%)	2mo	$399,999	$212	69
229 N Amherst Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,007 (-1%)	3mo	$354,000	$176	63
2571 Pinehurst Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,019 (-0%)	1mo	$249,000	$123	60
213 Woodhaven	0.42mi	4/2.5	2,219 (+10%)	3mo	$369,990	$167	60
331 Woodhaven Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,878 (-7%)	5mo	$329,990	$176	55
241 Woodhaven Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,735 (-14%)	2mo	$292,900	$169	47
2337 Shalmar Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,801 (-11%)	3mo	$335,000	$186	47
418 Twin Lakes Blvd W	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,863 (-8%)	4mo	$289,000	$155	46
264 S Amherst Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,761 (-13%)	6mo	$309,000	$175	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $103,338
• Equity at exit: $238,754

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.49×
• Total profit: $317,257
• Equity at exit: $466,348

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77486

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$539 /mo · $6,468/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-362

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,158

Max offer price $261,014

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-178	-5% $-270	+0% $-362	+5% $-454	+10% $-546
Rent	-10% $-576	-5% $-469	+0% $-362	+5% $-256	+10% $-149
Rate	-1.0pp $-199	-0.5pp $-280	base $-362	+0.5pp $-446	+1.0pp $-532

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2363 Ridgewood Dr West Columbia, TX	4.0	2.5	2555	$2,700	$1.06	25d	1	0.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on marketlisting id $325,000 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $319,000 Active 264 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $319,000 Active 261 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $319,000 Active 260 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $319,000 Active 259 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $319,000 Active 258 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $319,000 Active 257 DOM
10. 2026-05-19
    price $319,000 990-char remark
11. 2026-04-22
    price $329,000 990-char remark
12. 2026-01-28
    price $339,000 990-char remark
13. 2025-12-30
    price $349,999 990-char remark
14. 2025-09-16
    listed $359,999 Active 990-char remark
15. 2017-07-31
    soldstatus
16. 2006-04-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,468 · $539/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,468 · $539/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$6,468
• − Insurance: −$2,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,592
• − Management: −$2,592
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$9,934
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,384
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,962/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia-Brazoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814670
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $57,256
• Composite: 30.23/100
• National rank: #6297
• State rank: #513 of 826 in TX

Livability — East Columbia

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,330

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 13% Black 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.63%
• Current HPI: 320.7967
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $325,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $319,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $329,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $339,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $349,999 HARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Listed $359,999 HARMLS
• 2017-07-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-04-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+70.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,468 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.