639 Vine Ridge Rd · Grimsley, TN 38554

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,876 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1995 4.19 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Handyman Special - Investor Special - main components of house are good, bones seem good, just needing cosmetic work. HVAC in 2020 - 5 minutes to town, 20 minutes to Monterey, 40 minutes to Cookeville. Come make it your own!

Key facts

• 5 minutes to town
• Hvac in 2020
• 4.19 acre lot

Tags

• HVAC IN 2020
• 5 MINUTES TO TOWN
• 20 MINUTES TO MONTEREY
• 40 MINUTES TO COOKEVILLE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential, single family residence; Lot is level; Lot size approximately 4.19 acres; Above-grade living area reported as 1,876 square feet; Private above-ground pool

Exterior

• Parking: Detached parking; Carport with 2 covered spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity available; Water available
• Home design: Single family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Barn(s) on property; Existing construction; Built on crawl space foundation; Year built: existing
• Exterior features: Deck; Covered porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Walk-in closet(s); Crawl space basement; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Attic fan (energy efficient feature)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $62 ($741/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.0% in Grimsley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#376 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Overton County (rural): math 27% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #70 of 139 in TN (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Wilson Elementary (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #546 of 952 statewide, top 61%, 185 students, 0% FRL); Livingston Academy (math 8% / reading 41%, grade F, #143 of 332 statewide, top 43%, 885 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Overton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Overton County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $140k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,073 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.89%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $80,117
• Equity at exit: $126,123

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.94×
• Total profit: $232,719
• Equity at exit: $271,989

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38554

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,141 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $563/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,063

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $141	-5% $101	+0% $62	+5% $22	+10% $-18
Rent	-10% $-28	-5% $17	+0% $62	+5% $107	+10% $152
Rate	-1.0pp $132	-0.5pp $97	base $62	+0.5pp $25	+1.0pp $-11

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   remarks 224-char remark
5. 2026-06-01
   listed $140,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $563 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $994 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$431/yr (+$36/mo · 76.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,689
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$563
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,095
• − Management: −$1,095
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$1,680
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$403
• After-tax cash flow: $1,144/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Overton County
• NCES district ID: 4703330
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $34,479
• Composite: 23.47/100
• National rank: #7879
• State rank: #70 of 139 in TN

Livability — Grimsley

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #376
• US rank: #24029

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,106
• Population (ZIP): 751

Population outlook (Overton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,942 people
• By 2030: 21,633 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 20,812 · -5.1%
• By 2050: 19,770 · -9.9%
• By 2075: 17,125 · -22.0%
• By 2100: 13,695 · -37.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Serbian 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Overton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.2) · D 17.4% · R 81.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -50.9pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -64.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.2 2020: R+58.6 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+25.7 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.55%
• Current HPI: 366.9298
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+77.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $140,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $563 · +28.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.