Adams Plan · Grangerland, TX 77302

$221,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,204 sqft · SingleFamily · 953 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Value-oriented families appreciate the versatility of the single-story Adams. A gourmet kitchen with a casual nook adjoining an inviting family room are ideal for family gatherings or entertaining guests. The home's optional covered patio extends the fun outside on mild evenings.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 953 days

🏗️ New construction. The $221,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $258,389.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $222k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-141 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (6.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 953 days — a 12% lower offer ($195k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $195,351 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 953 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.34%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $258,389
• List price: $221,990
• Delta: -14.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16157 Sepia Manor St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,206 (+0%)	2mo	$229,990	$191	98
14555 Cedar Ledge Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,204 (0%)	23mo	$248,950	$207	58
16695 Ardmore St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,179 (-2%)	12mo	$237,500	$201	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-50,178
• Equity at exit: $38,527

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-52,515
• Equity at exit: $22,341

Cash invested: $72,349 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,082 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,355
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$323 /mo · $3,876/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,260

Max offer price $238,009

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,597
• Closing costs: $7,752
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $221,990 Active 953 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $221,990 Active 952 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $221,990 Active 951 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $221,990 Active 950 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $221,990 Active 948 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $221,990 Active 944 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $221,990 Active 943 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $221,990 Active 942 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $221,990 Active 939 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $221,990 Active 938 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $221,990 Active 936 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $221,990 Active 935 DOM
13. 2025-12-21
    price $221,990 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Value-oriented families appreciate the versatility of the single-story Adams. A gourmet kitchen with a casual nook adjoining an inviting family room are ideal for family gatherings or entertaining guests. The home's optional covered patio extends the fun outside on mild evenings.

14. 2024-09-18
    price $231,990 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Value-oriented families appreciate the versatility of the single-story Adams. A gourmet kitchen with a casual nook adjoining an inviting family room are ideal for family gatherings or entertaining guests. The home's optional covered patio extends the fun outside on mild evenings.

15. 2024-06-13
    price $229,990 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Value-oriented families appreciate the versatility of the single-story Adams. A gourmet kitchen with a casual nook adjoining an inviting family room are ideal for family gatherings or entertaining guests. The home's optional covered patio extends the fun outside on mild evenings.

16. 2023-11-08
    listed $247,490 Active 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Value-oriented families appreciate the versatility of the single-story Adams. A gourmet kitchen with a casual nook adjoining an inviting family room are ideal for family gatherings or entertaining guests. The home's optional covered patio extends the fun outside on mild evenings.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,985
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,474
• − Property taxes: −$3,876
• − Insurance: −$1,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,999
• − Management: −$1,999
• − Depreciation: −$7,517
• Taxable loss: −$6,171
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,481
• After-tax cash flow: $-209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home in Grangerland, TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with high resale and rental value potential.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New paint in interior walls — Enhances interior aesthetics and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New paint in interior walls — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-21 Price Changed $221,990 Zillow
• 2024-09-18 Price Changed $231,990 Zillow
• 2024-06-13 Price Changed $229,990 Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $247,490 Zillow