11119 Wortham Bend Rd · Waco, TX 76708

$199,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,192 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1960 0.61 ac lot $168/sqft · 15% below area Est $236k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderful remodel in popular China Spring within sight of China Spring Elementary School. Come check out this ranch style home with a huge fenced lot and a rear porch to die for. Redone recently with new appliances (Dishwasher, Stove, Washer, Dryer) Roof, updated electrical, granite, new sink. Most everything already done for you. Metal covered spot for parking with multiple storage buildings. Come and make this beauty yours today.

Key facts

• 0.61 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1960

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing is Active and for sale; Possession at closing/funding
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2-car); 1 covered parking space
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Attached property; Built in 1960; One story
• Construction: Year built 1960
• Exterior features: Approximately 0.61-acre lot; Lot in Barron T H subdivision; Directions: China Spring Road to Wortham Bend Road, right to the property

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (including double vanity)
• Interior features: Double vanity; One living area; One dining area; 2 bathrooms total; 3 bedrooms total; One-level layout
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-324 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (28.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (24.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• China Spring ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #70 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: China Spring El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 677 students, 36% FRL); China Spring Middle (math 63% / reading 59%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 478 students, 34% FRL); China Spring H S (math 50% / reading 69%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 948 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 381 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,745 (28.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.95%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,775
• List price: $199,999
• Delta: -15.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10234 Condor Loop	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,171 (-2%)	1mo	$249,900	$213	74
4216 Knoll Dr	0.41mi	2/1.0	1,280 (+7%)	4mo	$150,000	$117	66
10226 Condor Loop	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,281 (+8%)	9mo	$219,900	$172	58
10201 Condor Loop	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,369 (+15%)	8mo	$239,000	$175	48
10429 Condor Loop	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,303 (+9%)	21mo	$249,900	$192	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-57,377
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -61.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.67×
• Total profit: $-93,242
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76708

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 381
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,513 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$387 /mo · $4,646/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $-324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,923

Max offer price $142,745

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-211	-5% $-267	+0% $-324	+5% $-381	+10% $-437
Rent	-10% $-444	-5% $-384	+0% $-324	+5% $-264	+10% $-205
Rate	-1.0pp $-223	-0.5pp $-273	base $-324	+0.5pp $-376	+1.0pp $-429

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10220 Lilac Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,695	$1.13	45d	1	0.97mi
9900 China Spring Rd Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	954	$1,405	$1.47	15d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-24
   listed $199,999 Active
2. 2023-11-08
   soldstatus 435-char remark

   Show marketing remark (435 chars)

   Wonderful remodel in popular China Spring within sight of China Spring Elementary School. Come check out this ranch style home with a huge fenced lot and a rear porch to die for. Redone recently with new appliances (Dishwasher, Stove, Washer, Dryer) Roof, updated electrical, granite, new sink. Most everything already done for you. Metal covered spot for parking with multiple storage buildings. Come and make this beauty yours today.

3. 2023-08-19
   listed $219,995 435-char remark

   Show marketing remark (435 chars)

   Wonderful remodel in popular China Spring within sight of China Spring Elementary School. Come check out this ranch style home with a huge fenced lot and a rear porch to die for. Redone recently with new appliances (Dishwasher, Stove, Washer, Dryer) Roof, updated electrical, granite, new sink. Most everything already done for you. Metal covered spot for parking with multiple storage buildings. Come and make this beauty yours today.

4. 2021-06-22
   soldstatus
5. 2021-06-18
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (262 chars)

   Great affordable home located in China Spring school district. Huge fenced backyard that will allow kids to go out and have fun without the worry of getting close to the road. This property comes equipped with an above ground pool for some spring and summer fun!

6. 2021-05-14
   listed $129,900

   Show marketing remark (262 chars)

   Great affordable home located in China Spring school district. Huge fenced backyard that will allow kids to go out and have fun without the worry of getting close to the road. This property comes equipped with an above ground pool for some spring and summer fun!

7. 2020-06-01
   soldstatus
8. 2006-05-08
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,646 · $387/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,646 · $387/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,155
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$4,646
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,452
• − Management: −$1,452
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$7,417
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,780
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,109/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: China Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813960
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,314
• Composite: 50.64/100
• National rank: #1837
• State rank: #70 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,790
• Household income: $68,856
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 583.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 20% Black 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.80%
• Current HPI: 218.9643
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+54.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $199,999 NTREIS
• 2023-11-08 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-08-19 Listed $219,995 NTREIS
• 2021-06-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-18 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-05-14 Listed $129,900 NTREIS
• 2020-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-05-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,646 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.