16249 Bergara Bend Dr · Splendora, TX 77357

$208,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,451 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $192/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction Lennar Houston Home - The Kitson Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Timbers Edge Community Association with an annual fee of $2,300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and cement siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision lot setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor); Bedroom (First floor); Bedroom (First floor); Dining room and family room also on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Electric and Gas); Central air conditioning (Electric and Gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen and family room combo; Separate shower; Tub-shower combination
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $208,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $236,513.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $209k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-214 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (2.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (2.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Timber Lakes El (math 23% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,311 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 860 students, 63% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 986 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $204,142 (2.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.87%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $236,513
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16229 Bergara Bend Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,451 (0%)	1mo	$235,990	$163	74
16226 Bergara Bend Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-2%)	1mo	$243,990	$172	70
16218 Bergara Bend Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-3%)	1mo	$235,990	$167	69
21621 Jasmine Star Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-0%)	2mo	$234,990	$162	66
14282 Moonflower Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,415 (-2%)	1mo	$239,990	$170	64
16246 Bergara Bend Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-10%)	0mo	$231,990	$177	62
16206 Bergara Bend Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-10%)	1mo	$231,990	$177	61
14270 Moonflower Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+8%)	1mo	$253,990	$161	53
21613 Jasmine Star Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,566 (+8%)	2mo	$244,990	$156	52
16225 Bergara Bend Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+14%)	1mo	$260,990	$158	46
16210 Bergara Bend Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+14%)	1mo	$256,990	$155	46
14396 Oceanblue Way	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,665 (+15%)	1mo	$257,990	$155	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-57,367
• Equity at exit: $35,265

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-88,517
• Equity at exit: $20,449

Cash invested: $66,224 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 986
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,041 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,240
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$296 /mo · $3,548/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,312

Max offer price $205,581

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-50	-5% $-132	+0% $-214	+5% $-295	+10% $-377
Rent	-10% $-375	-5% $-294	+0% $-214	+5% $-133	+10% $-52
Rate	-1.0pp $-95	-0.5pp $-154	base $-214	+0.5pp $-275	+1.0pp $-337

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,128
• Closing costs: $7,095
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15019 Ashton Meadows Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,790	$1.19	26d	1	0.54mi
14255 Timber Fields Way New Caney, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1797	$1,622	$0.90	7d	57	1.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $192 · $2,304/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $208,990 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $208,990 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $208,990 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $208,990 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 638-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $208,990 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $208,990 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $208,990 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   remarks 599-char remark
10. 2026-06-09
    listed $208,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,497
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,248
• − Property taxes: −$3,548
• − Insurance: −$1,183
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,960
• − Management: −$1,960
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$6,880
• Taxable loss: −$6,586
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,581
• After-tax cash flow: $-985/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It has a spacious floor plan and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value.
• Resale Updating the kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Updating the kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $208,990 HARMLS