16868 Kempwood · Conroe, TX 77316

$325,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 950 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2014 4,094 sqft lot $55/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Price adjustment!! Great investment property! Duplex in Lake Conroe Village. Each side is available or purchase both units and Live on one side and rent the other! Each side of this Lovely duplex features an open floor plan with fresh paint and flooring. Nice size laundry room! High ceilings make it feel very roomy. Nice little backyard area! Come take a look! Book an appointment today!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Fresh paint
• Laundry room

Tags

• DUPLEX IN LAKE CONROE VILLAGE
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FRESH PAINT
• FLOORING
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• HIGH CEILINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total building area approximately 1,900; Lot about 4,094 square feet; Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Association: Spectrum; Annual association fee of $660; Community trash service

Exterior

• Home design: Residential income property
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Built in 2014; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite counters; Ceiling fans

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($219/yr) — positive. Per door: $9/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Creek H S (math 53% / reading 68%, grade C+, #268 of 1,632 statewide, top 17%, 1,649 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $262,600 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.24%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-58,275
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-75,645
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 20.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,626 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,939/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,603

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 94%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,626
Total (2 units)			$2,626

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16928 Kempwood Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	43d	1	0.11mi
16967 W Ivanhoe Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,350	$1.33	12d	1	0.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 357-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $325,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,939 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,948 · $496/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,009/yr (+$334/mo · 206.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,512
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$1,939
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,521
• − Management: −$2,521
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$5,413
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,299
• After-tax cash flow: $1,518/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+133.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-06-12 Listed $325,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-10 Listed $325,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-01-10 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-12-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-12-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-10-28 Price Changed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-28 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-23 Listed $139,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+33.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,939 · -25.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.