15174 SE 122nd Ave #87 · Happy Valley, OR 97015

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,540 sqft · Condo public records · 54 Days on market

Built 2008 ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully updated 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 1,596 sqft manufactured home located at Indian Bluff; a desirable all-ages community. Recently renovated throughout, this corner lot home shines with new flooring, fresh interior and exterior paint, updated bathrooms, and thoughtfully refreshed landscaping that boosts curb appeal from the moment you arrive. Step onto the large front porch, perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation, and appreciate the convenience of the oversized carport with ample covered parking. Inside, you’ll find a spacious living room ideal for entertaining or unwinding, along with generously sized guest bedrooms that provide flexibility for fami

Key facts

• Oversized carport
• Large front porch
• Corner lot

Tags

• UPDATED MANUFACTURED HOME
• CORNER LOT
• LARGE FRONT PORCH
• OVERSIZED CARPORT
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• MASSIVE PRIMARY SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Main level area approximately 1,540 (title); Lot size range listed as 0K to 2,999
• Financial info: Lot rent $975 monthly
• HOA & community: Located in Indian Bluff park; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric power
• Home design: Manufactured home in park (residential, not attached); Single-story living; Title-described building area; Built in 2008; Manufacturer: Skyline Homes; Corner home in the park (directions: SE Hubbard Rd to park, first left)
• Construction: Skirting foundation
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Deck; Fenced yard; Patio; Porch; Yard; Wood siding; Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in refrigerator; Dishwasher; Kitchen on main level
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (main) with soaking tub, walk-in closet, and walk-in shower; Second bedroom (main) with closet; Third bedroom (main) with closet
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump cooling; Electric fuel
• Interior features: One-level layout; Laundry area; Vinyl flooring; Vinyl window frames; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area included; Electric hot water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $711 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 2.5% in Happy Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#76 in OR, #3,386 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• North Clackamas SD 12 (suburban): math 29% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #22 of 58 in OR (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sunnyside Elementary School (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #263 of 412 statewide, top 68%, 427 students, 34% FRL); Rock Creek Middle School (math 19% / reading 44%, grade F, #82 of 128 statewide, top 64%, 902 students, 33% FRL); Clackamas High School (math 52% / reading 67%, grade C+, #23 of 143 statewide, top 19%, 1,224 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 124 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 946 units permitted in Clackamas County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clackamas County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $193,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.23%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $11,529
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $62,894
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97015

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,444 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,062/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $711

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,544

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $824	-5% $767	+0% $711	+5% $654	+10% $597
Rent	-10% $517	-5% $614	+0% $711	+5% $807	+10% $904
Rate	-1.0pp $811	-0.5pp $761	base $711	+0.5pp $659	+1.0pp $606

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12301 SE Hubbard Rd Clackamas, OR	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,063	$2.20	12d	4	0.13mi
13300 SE Hubbard Rd Clackamas, OR	3.0	1.0–2.0	818	$2,290	$2.80	3d	6	0.32mi
13640 SE Madena Way Clackamas, OR	3.0	2.5	1697	$2,995	$1.76	0d	1	0.57mi
13898 SE Rogers Ln Clackamas, OR	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,599	$1.75	45d	1	0.71mi
13777 SE 115th Ave Clackamas, OR	3.0	3.0	2088	$3,495	$1.67	25d	1	0.78mi
13300 SE 122nd Ave Clackamas, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$2,124	$2.18	0d	6	0.78mi
13120 SE 128th Ave Happy Valley, OR	3.0	2.5	1861	$2,900	$1.56	45d	1	0.89mi
14439 SE Oregon Trail Dr Clackamas, OR	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,615	$1.58	3d	1	1.03mi
14095 SE Summerfield Loop Happy Valley, OR	3.0	2.5	1453	$2,695	$1.85	45d	1	1.04mi
14154 SE Summerfield Loop Unit 14194 Happy Valley, OR	3.0	2.5	1125	$2,250	$2.00	25d	1	1.13mi
14194 SE Summerfield Loop Happy Valley, OR	3.0	2.5	1125	$2,250	$2.00	25d	1	1.16mi
11480 SE Sunnyside Rd Clackamas, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,255	$2.41	0d	17	1.33mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   status Active
3. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-05
   price $199,900
5. 2026-02-21
   status Active
6. 2026-02-05
   status Pending
7. 2026-01-28
   listed $210,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,062 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,939 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: +$877/yr (+$73/mo · 82.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,326
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,062
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,346
• − Management: −$2,346
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $5,560
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,334
• After-tax cash flow: $7,192/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Clackamas SD 12
• NCES district ID: 4108830
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $60,217
• Composite: 32.1/100
• National rank: #5807
• State rank: #22 of 58 in OR

Livability — Happy Valley

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #3386

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clackamas County · 361,406 people
• City population: 34,567
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 24,433
• Household income: $87,333
• Rent vs Own: 36.0% rent · 64.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1166.0

Population outlook (Clackamas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 458,456 people
• By 2030: 485,185 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 532,932 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 574,445 · +25.3%
• By 2075: 665,497 · +45.2%
• By 2100: 697,488 · +52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 12% Asian 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Scotch-Irish 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 11% Chinese 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Clackamas

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 53.4% · R 43.6% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 10.4pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+11.1 2016: D+6.1 2012: D+3.5 2008: D+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -170.50%
• Current HPI: 295.7295
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-04-08 Relisted — RMLS
• 2026-03-31 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $199,900 RMLS
• 2026-02-21 Relisted — RMLS
• 2026-02-05 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $210,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,062 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.