1605 Iron Truss Rd · San Marcos, TX 78666

$236,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,859 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Built 2026 Poor condition 5,227 sqft lot $127/sqft · 10% below area Est $262k · 10% under $65/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: Lennar
• HOA & community: Homeowners association: River Bridge Ranch; HOA fee $65 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 covered spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Public sewer (connected)
• Home design: Single-story home; New construction by Lennar; Faces southeast; Slab foundation
• Construction: HardiPlank-type exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Front porch; Privacy fencing; Corner, level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range
• Bedrooms: Four main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Open floorplan; Main level primary bedroom; Walk-in closet(s); Window details noted in remarks
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $237k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-900/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dezavala El (math 13% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,739 of 4,322 statewide, top 87%, 575 students, 87% FRL); Goodnight Middle (math 9% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,536 of 1,662 statewide, top 93%, 866 students, 85% FRL); San Marcos H S (math 26% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,536 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 63% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1146 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,061/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 6504% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,058 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.36%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $261,990
• List price: $236,999
• Delta: -9.54%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
116 Stumpy St	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,845 (-1%)	1mo	$264,990	$144	95
208 Trinity River Holw	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-0%)	1mo	$235,990	$128	93
136 Trinity River Holw	0.07mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+2%)	1mo	$239,999	$127	91
219 Navidad River Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,845 (-1%)	2mo	$226,990	$123	90
224 Trinity River Holw	0.13mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+2%)	1mo	$229,990	$122	88
212 Navidad River Dr	0.14mi	4/2.5	1,802 (-3%)	1mo	$198,999	$110	86
235 Navidad River Dr	0.19mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+2%)	1mo	$232,990	$123	86
124 Stumpy St	0.05mi	4/2.0	2,000 (+8%)	1mo	$276,990	$138	84
214 Trinity River Holw	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,707 (-8%)	1mo	$223,990	$131	80
223 Navidad River Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,707 (-8%)	1mo	$224,990	$132	77
204 Stumpy St	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,090 (+12%)	1mo	$288,990	$138	72
128 Stumpy St	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,090 (+12%)	2mo	$289,240	$138	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-45,203
• Equity at exit: $35,337

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-53,639
• Equity at exit: $20,491

Cash invested: $66,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78666

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1146
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,061 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,243
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$296 /mo · $3,555/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,156

Max offer price $226,148

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $89	-5% $7	+0% $-75	+5% $-157	+10% $-239
Rent	-10% $-238	-5% $-156	+0% $-75	+5% $6	+10% $88
Rate	-1.0pp $44	-0.5pp $-15	base $-75	+0.5pp $-136	+1.0pp $-199

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,250
• Closing costs: $7,110
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
213 Navidad River Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	2162	$2,195	$1.02	3d	1	0.14mi
308 Navidad River Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	25d	1	0.18mi
426 Spring River Dr Martindale, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$2,250	$1.78	25d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $65 · $780/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $236,999 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $236,999 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $236,999 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $237,999 Active 33 DOM

   Show marketing remark (416 chars)

   This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $237,999 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $237,999 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $237,999 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $257,999 Active 25 DOM

   Show marketing remark (416 chars)

   This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $257,999 Active 24 DOM

   Show marketing remark (416 chars)

   This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

10. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $257,999 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $260,999 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $260,999 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $260,999 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $260,999 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $265,999 Active 625-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,727
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,276
• − Property taxes: −$3,555
• − Insurance: −$1,185
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,978
• − Management: −$1,978
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$6,895
• Taxable loss: −$4,919
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,181
• After-tax cash flow: $281/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This home requires extensive repairs and renovations, including a new roof, exterior siding, flooring, and interior painting. The extensive work needed significantly reduces its current value and would require a substantial investment.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant damage to the roof structure
• Major exterior siding — Damaged and weathered
• Major flooring — Worn and uneven
• Major interior walls/paint — Chipped and uneven

Value-add opportunities

• Resale New roof — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and value
• Resale New exterior siding — New siding would improve the home's curb appeal and value
• Resale New flooring — New flooring would improve the home's appearance and value
• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint would improve the home's appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant damage to the roof structure	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Damaged and weathered	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn and uneven	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Chipped and uneven	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale New roof — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Resale New exterior siding — New siding would improve the home's curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale New flooring — New flooring would improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint would improve the home's appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4838970
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,538
• Composite: 20.11/100
• National rank: #8644
• State rank: #731 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #1601

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Marcos, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 88,583
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 88,583
• Household income: $54,737
• Rent vs Own: 61.9% rent · 38.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6504.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 20% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.27%
• Current HPI: 187.6679
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $236,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $236,999 Zillow
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $237,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $237,999 Zillow
• 2026-06-07 Listed $257,999 Zillow
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $257,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $260,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $265,999 Unlock MLS