Carolina III Plan · Midlothian, TX 76065

$518,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,067 sqft · SingleFamily · 774 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Classic Series Carolina III floor plan is a two-story home with 4 bedrooms, a study, and 3 bathrooms. Features of this plan include a rotunda entry, covered porch, formal dining, large family room, open kitchen with custom cabinets and island, a downstairs primary suite with a walk-in closet and garden tub, and an upstairs game room. Contact us or visit our model home for more information about building this plan.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Custom cabinets
• Rotunda entry

Tags

• ROTUNDA ENTRY
• COVERED PORCH
• CUSTOM CABINETS
• UPSTAIRS GAME ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $518,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $519,587.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $519k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $350k (32.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $306k (41.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $306k (41.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#371 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Midlothian ISD (suburban): math 53% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #94 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: T E Baxter El (math 49% / reading 48%, grade D, #950 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 600 students, 37% FRL); Walnut Grove Middle (math 57% / reading 56%, grade B, #226 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 992 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); tight market (median 1 DOM); 1408 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 774 days — a 12% lower offer ($457k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $306,348 (41.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 774 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.66%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $519,587
• List price: $518,990
• Delta: -0.11%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3690 Mockingbird Ln	0.09mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,763 (-10%)	3mo	$890,000	$322	72
1113 Cardinal Dr	0.25mi	4/4.0	3,278 (+7%)	4mo	$580,000	$177	69
717 Willowbranch Ln	0.47mi	4/3.5	3,138 (+2%)	4mo	$485,000	$155	69
1511 N Walnut Grove Rd	0.38mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,977 (-3%)	3mo	$640,000	$215	68
1106 Cardinal Dr	0.22mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,849 (-7%)	2mo	$570,000	$200	67
4417 Verbena St	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,972 (-3%)	5mo	$529,999	$178	56
1105 Cardinal Dr	0.25mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,481 (+14%)	2mo	$585,000	$168	55
4425 Massey Meadows Way	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,914 (-5%)	4mo	$489,000	$168	54
4206 Dandelion Ln	0.62mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,269 (+7%)	2mo	$492,000	$151	51
718 Indian Blanket Dr	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,740 (-11%)	5mo	$475,000	$173	49
4425 Dandelion	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,798 (-9%)	5mo	$488,000	$174	47
738 Larkspur Ln	0.59mi	4/2.5	2,620 (-15%)	2mo	$449,900	$172	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-154,583
• Equity at exit: $77,472

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-213,047
• Equity at exit: $44,924

Cash invested: $145,484 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 100 active · 22 under contract
• Months of supply: 17.6 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $534,990 ($175/sqft)
• Median days on market: 250 d
• This list price: 42% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -3.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76065

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Median DOM (565 sales): 1 d
• Active inventory: 1408
• Price-to-rent: 14.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,063 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,725
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$649 /mo · $7,794/yr
• Insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$643
• Net cashflow: $-1,171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,545

Max offer price $350,199

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-812	-5% $-991	+0% $-1,171	+5% $-1,350	+10% $-1,530
Rent	-10% $-1,413	-5% $-1,292	+0% $-1,171	+5% $-1,050	+10% $-929
Rate	-1.0pp $-909	-0.5pp $-1,038	base $-1,171	+0.5pp $-1,305	+1.0pp $-1,442

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $129,897
• Closing costs: $15,588
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1109 Abbey Ln Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2449	$3,100	$1.27	11d	1	0.10mi
3826 Hyde Park Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.5	2822	$2,995	$1.06	4d	1	0.32mi
3222 Eagle Ln Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.5	2380	$2,675	$1.12	7d	1	0.35mi
1137 Robin Cir Midlothian, TX	5.0	2.5	2646	$2,900	$1.10	4d	1	0.38mi
1146 Finch Cir Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.5	2332	$2,881	$1.24	0d	1	0.46mi
4434 Verbena St Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.5	2970	$3,400	$1.14	2d	1	0.74mi
344 Dairy Way Midlothian, TX	3.0	2.5	2817	$3,200	$1.14	18d	1	0.85mi
3005 Arbor Grove Trl Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.0	2121	$2,995	$1.41	4d	1	0.89mi
2837 Hay Ln Midlothian, TX	3.0	2.0	2153	$2,900	$1.35	41d	1	0.91mi
2 Saint Charles Pl Unit 1389216P Midlothian, TX	5.0	3.0	2389	$15,575	$6.52	73d	1	0.96mi
2 Saint Charles Pl Midlothian, TX	5.0	3.0	2400	$8,950	$3.73	93d	1	0.96mi
3825 Honey Grove Dr Midlothian, TX	5.0	4.0	3771	$4,500	$1.19	93d	1	1.04mi
3829 Honey Grove Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$3,200	$1.33	93d	1	1.05mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 1134 S Bluebird Ln, Midlothian, TX 76065Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $507,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: New construction planSingle-family property (Plan: Carolina III)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 3067

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (Carolina III)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $518,990 Active 774 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $518,990 Active 772 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $518,990 Active 771 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $518,990 Active 770 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $518,990 Active 769 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $518,990 Active 766 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $518,990 Active 765 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $518,990 Active 764 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $518,990 Active 763 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $518,990 Active 761 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $518,990 Active 759 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $518,990 Active 758 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $518,990 Active 757 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $518,990 Active 756 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $518,990 Active 755 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $518,990 Active 753 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $518,990 Active 752 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $518,990 Active 751 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $518,990 Active 750 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $518,990 Active 749 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $518,990 Active 748 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $518,990 Active 747 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $518,990 Active 746 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $518,990 Active 745 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $518,990 Active 744 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $518,990 Active 742 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $518,990 Active 741 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $518,990 Active 740 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $518,990 Active 739 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $518,990 Active 738 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $518,990 Active 737 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $518,990 Active 736 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $518,990 Active 735 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $518,990 Active 734 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $518,990 Active 733 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $518,990 Active 731 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    pricedays on marketlisting id $518,990 Active 729 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    pricedays on marketlisting id $507,990 Active 1 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $518,990 Active 726 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $518,990 Active 723 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $518,990 Active 722 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $518,990 Active 720 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $518,990 Active 718 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $518,990 Active 714 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $518,990 Active 713 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $518,990 Active 712 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $518,990 Active 709 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $518,990 Active 708 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $518,990 Active 707 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $518,990 Active 706 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,762
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,105
• − Property taxes: −$7,794
• − Insurance: −$2,598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,941
• − Management: −$2,941
• − Depreciation: −$15,115
• Taxable loss: −$23,732
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,696
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home in the Carolina III plan is in good condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a well-maintained exterior and interior, making it a solid investment with potential for minor updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Both Interior cleaning — A clean interior can make the home more appealing to potential buyers ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary T E Baxter El D TX #950/4,322 Nat'l #14,081/41,679 Middle Walnut Grove Middle B TX #226/1,662 Nat'l #2,304/14,009 High Midlothian Heritage H S C TX #315/1,632 Nat'l #3,934/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midlothian ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830600
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $85,068
• Composite: 48.22/100
• National rank: #2165
• State rank: #94 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Midlothian

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #7851

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midlothian, TX
• County: Ellis County · 194,556 people
• City population: 47,438
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 47,438
• Household income: $127,756
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.85%
• Current HPI: 243.5953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.32%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 1134 S Bluebird Ln, Midlothian, TX 76065Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $507,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: New construction planSingle-family property (Plan: Carolina III)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 3067

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (Carolina III)