2603 N 16th Ave · Pensacola, FL 32503

$297,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,444 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1920 10,454 sqft lot $206/sqft · 38% below area Est $476k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Back on Market~ No Fault of Seller. New Roof installed! This is a historic 1920 East Hill home full of flexibility, and opportunity. It is a 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers approximately 1,444 square feet and is ideally located just one block from Lamancha Square, only four blocks from the East Hill Wine Bar, approximately 3 miles to Palafox Street in the heart of downtown Pensacola, and about 8.9 miles to Pensacola Beach. Situated on a generous ~0.24-acre lot, the property features a deep backyard with ample space to create your dream outdoor retreat—whether that’s a pool, urban garden, detached garage, an accessory dwelling for multigenerational living (perhaps Air BnB?) or

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Ensuite bath
• Deep backyard

Tags

• DEEP BACKYARD
• GENEROUS LOT
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• ENSUITE BATH
• ZONED R-1AA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with open parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single-story (one level); Resale property; Not attached to another property
• Construction: Frame construction; Off-grade foundation
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Central access lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen and dining combined; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the first floor (approx. 10x10, 14x12, 13x12)
• Flooring: See remarks for flooring details
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Flooring details available in remarks
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater (listed under appliances)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $297k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-188 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.6% in Pensacola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#53 in FL, #924 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: O. J. Semmes Elementary School (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,105 of 2,144 statewide, top 98%, 302 students, 91% FRL); J. H. Workman Middle School (math 20% / reading 27%, grade F, #536 of 571 statewide, top 95%, 705 students, 72% FRL); Washington Senior High School (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #411 of 667 statewide, top 62%, 1,733 students, 51% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Escambia average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 240 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($288k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $297k implies a 471% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,707 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.71%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $475,592
• List price: $297,000
• Delta: -37.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1720 E Leonard St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,389 (-4%)	2mo	$459,000	$330	77
1300 E Fisher St	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,438 (-0%)	2mo	$295,000	$205	76
1714 E Hatton St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+8%)	2mo	$540,000	$347	75
1118 E Fisher St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,447 (+0%)	3mo	$430,000	$297	75
3090 N 15th Ave	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,482 (+3%)	3mo	$300,000	$202	70
1613 E Yonge St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,579 (+9%)	3mo	$575,000	$364	70
2373 Escambia Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-2%)	2mo	$482,500	$342	68
1905 E Scott St	0.33mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,387 (-4%)	4mo	$417,000	$301	63
609 E Fisher	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-3%)	1mo	$295,000	$211	56
1911 E Mallory St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,410 (-2%)	4mo	$447,000	$317	56
1631 E Maura St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,642 (+14%)	1mo	$153,000	$93	52
1007 E Hayes St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,247 (-14%)	3mo	$210,000	$168	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-59,135
• Equity at exit: $44,284

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-62,929
• Equity at exit: $25,679

Cash invested: $83,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32503

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,357 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,558
• Tax from tax record: −$369 /mo · $4,425/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-188

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,595

Max offer price $263,797

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-20	-5% $-104	+0% $-188	+5% $-272	+10% $-356
Rent	-10% $-374	-5% $-281	+0% $-188	+5% $-95	+10% $-2
Rate	-1.0pp $-38	-0.5pp $-112	base $-188	+0.5pp $-265	+1.0pp $-343

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,250
• Closing costs: $8,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3014 Magnolia Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,750	$1.67	25d	1	0.42mi
1121 E Maxwell St Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1716	$3,550	$2.07	25d	1	0.46mi
2115 N 12th Ave Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.5	950	$1,800	$1.89	15d	1	0.47mi
1414 E Mallory St Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1323	$3,400	$2.57	25d	1	0.60mi
3131 N 10th Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.5	1085	$1,700	$1.57	25d	1	0.63mi
2008 N 8th Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1058	$1,250	$1.18	15d	1	0.75mi
1704 E Lee St Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1226	$2,295	$1.87	25d	1	0.81mi
801 E Gonzalez St Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,200	$1.83	15d	1	1.22mi
1011 Doctor M.L.K. Jr Dr Unit B Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	877	$1,200	$1.37	25d	1	1.40mi
300 Bayou Blvd Pensacola, FL	2.0–4.0	1.0–1.5	968	$1,698	$1.75	15d	2	1.49mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $297,000 Pending 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $297,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $297,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $297,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $297,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $297,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $297,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $297,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $297,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $297,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-05-11
    status Active 1742-char remark
12. 2026-05-09
    status Active 1761-char remark
13. 2026-04-29
    status Pending 1761-char remark
14. 2026-04-29
    status Pending 1742-char remark
15. 2026-04-23
    listed $297,000 Active 1742-char remark
16. 2026-04-23
    listed $297,000 Active 1761-char remark
17. 2026-03-17
    historical
18. 2026-02-26
    price $319,900
19. 2025-11-11
    price $329,900
20. 2025-09-26
    price $339,900
21. 2025-09-17
    listed $350,000 Active
22. 2024-07-29
    historical
23. 2024-07-02
    status Active
24. 2024-05-26
    historical
25. 2024-05-23
    listed $330,000 Active
26. 2010-01-27
    soldstatus $52,000
27. 2009-04-24
    listed $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,425 · $369/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,425 · $369/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,285
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,637
• − Property taxes: −$4,425
• − Insurance: −$1,485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,263
• − Management: −$2,263
• − Depreciation: −$8,640
• Taxable loss: −$7,428
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,783
• After-tax cash flow: $-473/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pensacola

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #924

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pensacola, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• City population: 237,636
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,559
• Household income: $71,411
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 948.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 20% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.02%
• Current HPI: 294.4873
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.39%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+324.9% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Pending — PARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Relisted — ECAR
• 2026-05-09 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Pending — PARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Pending — ECAR
• 2026-04-23 Listed $297,000 ECAR
• 2026-04-23 Listed $297,000 PARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $319,900 PARMLS
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $329,900 PARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $339,900 PARMLS
• 2025-09-17 Listed $350,000 PARMLS
• 2024-07-29 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2024-07-02 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2024-05-26 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2024-05-23 Listed $330,000 PARMLS
• 2010-01-27 Sold (MLS) $52,000 PARMLS
• 2009-04-24 Listed $69,900 PARMLS

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,425 · +14.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.