4355 Owl Rd · Alcona, MI 48742

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,073 sqft · SingleFamily · 52 Days on market

Built 1929 0.28 ac lot $116/sqft · 18% below area Est $153k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

UP-North living at its best! This adorable cottage or year-round home has an artistic touch making this property fun and inviting! Step inside to the enclosed porch that offers the perfect space for enjoying your morning coffee! The instant you walk into the home you will feel the nice open space with fantastic natural lighting! Many of the windows have recently been replaced. The kitchen has had several upgrades with freshly painted cabinets, newer ceramic backsplash and the stainless appliances which are included. The dining space is more than adequate and currently duals as an office workspace! The pops of color here and there give the perfect accent keeping the space comfortable and interesting! Enjoy cozying up to the Blaze King wood burner on those chilly nights! There are currently 3 bedrooms, one is being used as an artists studio, the second as a grand walk-in closet/dressing room and the third fits a queen size bed and has a full-sized closet. The full bathroom has a space saving barn door; the room is bright and features newer pine flooring! The laundry area has a utility sink and includes the washer and dryer! There is an attached workshop area just off the laundry area for your workbench and tools. There are also two additional sheds for all your storage needs. This Up-North retreat is located on a double lot and has a recent improved gravel driveway. You will surely love sitting out on the patio for a cook-out or having fun gathering around the campfire with friends! There is a retractable awning that will partially shade you when needed. Since these sellers live here year-round, they had the pipes in the crawl space insulated. Enjoy the 4 seasons if you choose, the deer and other wildlife that are plentiful! Lost Lake Woods Club is a unique opportunity with many amenities including 5 lakes, lodge accommodations, a golf course, horseback riding, shooting ranges and more! Membership required to purchase, well worth it!

Key facts

• Upgraded kitchen
• Double lot
• Enclosed porch

Tags

• ENCLOSED PORCH
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• BLAZE KING WOOD BURNER
• SPACE SAVING BARN DOOR
• ATTACHED WORKSHOP AREA
• DOUBLE LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community tennis court(s)

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Patio; Shed(s); On or near golf course; Gravel road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Wall furnace; Ceiling fan(s); Exhaust fan; Has cooling; Has heating
• Interior features: Window treatments; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($685/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (14.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $107k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Alcona Community Schools (rural): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #374 of 540 in MI (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Alcona County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alcona County population projected at -37% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $106,914 (14.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.96%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $152,646
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -18.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4255 N Elder Trl	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-7%)	6mo	$157,500	$158	74
2433 E Fox Rd	0.15mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,212 (+13%)	10mo	$149,000	$123	56
4438 N Cherry Rd	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,200 (+12%)	12mo	$152,000	$127	52
4175 N Hazel Rd	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	970 (-10%)	12mo	$127,000	$131	49
4084 Spruce Rd	0.64mi	3/1.0	928 (-14%)	19mo	$68,500	$74	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-16,652
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-9,945
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48742

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,069 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $960/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $997

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-04-27
    listed $125,000 Active 1965-char remark
17. 2026-04-25
    listed $125,000 Active 1965-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1965 chars)

    UP-North living at its best! This adorable cottage or year-round home has an artistic touch making this property fun and inviting! Step inside to the enclosed porch that offers the perfect space for enjoying your morning coffee! The instant you walk into the home you will feel the nice open space with fantastic natural lighting! Many of the windows have recently been replaced. The kitchen has had several upgrades with freshly painted cabinets, newer ceramic backsplash and the stainless appliances which are included. The dining space is more than adequate and currently duals as an office workspace! The pops of color here and there give the perfect accent keeping the space comfortable and interesting! Enjoy cozying up to the Blaze King wood burner on those chilly nights! There are currently 3 bedrooms, one is being used as an artists studio, the second as a grand walk-in closet/dressing room and the third fits a queen size bed and has a full-sized closet. The full bathroom has a space saving barn door; the room is bright and features newer pine flooring! The laundry area has a utility sink and includes the washer and dryer! There is an attached workshop area just off the laundry area for your workbench and tools. There are also two additional sheds for all your storage needs. This Up-North retreat is located on a double lot and has a recent improved gravel driveway. You will surely love sitting out on the patio for a cook-out or having fun gathering around the campfire with friends! There is a retractable awning that will partially shade you when needed. Since these sellers live here year-round, they had the pipes in the crawl space insulated. Enjoy the 4 seasons if you choose, the deer and other wildlife that are plentiful! Lost Lake Woods Club is a unique opportunity with many amenities including 5 lakes, lodge accommodations, a golf course, horseback riding, shooting ranges and more! Membership required to purchase, well worth it!

18. 2023-09-13
    soldstatus $90,000
19. 2005-08-02
    soldstatus $66,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $960 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,442 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$483/yr (+$40/mo · 50.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,830
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$960
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,026
• − Management: −$1,026
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,446
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$347
• After-tax cash flow: $1,032/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alcona Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2602160
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $38,164
• Composite: 25.03/100
• National rank: #7552
• State rank: #374 of 540 in MI

Livability — Alcona

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lost Lake Woods, MI
• Population (ZIP): 1,767

Population outlook (Alcona County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,071 people
• By 2030: 8,331 · -8.2%
• By 2040: 6,852 · -24.5%
• By 2050: 5,691 · -37.3%
• By 2075: 4,229 · -53.4%
• By 2100: 3,149 · -65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Alcona

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.7) · D 28.6% · R 70.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.8pp toward R · 2008: -7.9pp · 2024: -41.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.7 2020: R+38.3 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+18.2 2008: R+7.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.33%
• Current HPI: 146.2138
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+89.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $125,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-25 Listed $125,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $960 · +57.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.