470 Left Fork Abner Rd · Elkhorn City, KY 41513

$134,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured · 46 Days on market

Built 1973 14 ac lot $80/sqft · 14% above area Est $119k · 14% over ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.3/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEAUTIFUL MOVE IN READY HOME, LARGE YARD, FLAT AND HILLSIDE ACREAGE, 4 LARGE FLATS 1 FLAT HAS ELEC POLE AND WATER METER ON SITE, 14 ACRES , STORAGE BUILDING, DETACHED GARAGE. THIS HOME IS A GREAT VALUE! JUST WAITING FOR ITS NEW OWNER! CALL OR TEXT TODAY TO SCHEDULE A SHOWING!

Key facts

• Storage building
• Large yard
• Detached garage

Tags

• LARGE YARD
• FLAT AND HILLSIDE ACREAGE
• STORAGE BUILDING
• DETACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#394 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pike County (rural): math 24% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #98 of 165 in KY (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Belfry Middle School (math 27% / reading 44%, grade F, #94 of 217 statewide, top 44%, 349 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 54% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,580 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.88%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $118,504
• List price: $134,900
• Delta: 13.84%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $21,946
• Equity at exit: $60,657

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $69,972
• Equity at exit: $93,479

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41513

• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,116 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $328/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,001

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $167	-5% $129	+0% $91	+5% $52	+10% $14
Rent	-10% $2	-5% $46	+0% $91	+5% $135	+10% $179
Rate	-1.0pp $158	-0.5pp $125	base $91	+0.5pp $56	+1.0pp $20

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-05
   price $134,900 277-char remark

   Show marketing remark (277 chars)

   BEAUTIFUL MOVE IN READY HOME, LARGE YARD, FLAT AND HILLSIDE ACREAGE, 4 LARGE FLATS 1 FLAT HAS ELEC POLE AND WATER METER ON SITE, 14 ACRES , STORAGE BUILDING, DETACHED GARAGE. THIS HOME IS A GREAT VALUE! JUST WAITING FOR ITS NEW OWNER! CALL OR TEXT TODAY TO SCHEDULE A SHOWING!

2. 2026-04-12
   listed $139,000 Active 277-char remark

   Show marketing remark (277 chars)

   BEAUTIFUL MOVE IN READY HOME, LARGE YARD, FLAT AND HILLSIDE ACREAGE, 4 LARGE FLATS 1 FLAT HAS ELEC POLE AND WATER METER ON SITE, 14 ACRES , STORAGE BUILDING, DETACHED GARAGE. THIS HOME IS A GREAT VALUE! JUST WAITING FOR ITS NEW OWNER! CALL OR TEXT TODAY TO SCHEDULE A SHOWING!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $328 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,160 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$832/yr (+$69/mo · 253.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,390
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$328
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,071
• − Management: −$1,071
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable loss: −$1,236
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$297
• After-tax cash flow: $1,383/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pike County
• NCES district ID: 2104800
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $32,601
• Composite: 26.14/100
• National rank: #7276
• State rank: #98 of 165 in KY

Livability — Elkhorn City

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #394
• US rank: #18934

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 393

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,108 people
• By 2030: 51,235 · -7.0%
• By 2040: 43,573 · -20.9%
• By 2050: 36,797 · -33.2%
• By 2075: 24,330 · -55.9%
• By 2100: 15,611 · -71.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.4) · D 16.8% · R 82.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -51.6pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -65.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+62.8 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $134,900 EKAR
• 2026-04-12 Listed $139,000 EKAR

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $328 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.