2607 River Run Rd · Sienna, TX 77459

$449,900

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,853 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2015 6,351 sqft lot $158/sqft · at area comps Est $466k · at est. $121/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Step into this stunning, move-in-ready residence featuring soaring high ceilings, 4 spacious bedrooms, and 3.5 designer baths. The gourmet kitchen is a chef’s dream, complete with a stone center island, custom backsplash tiling, and premium pull-out cabinetry. The entire first floor features upgraded wood-look tile that seamlessly integrates with an ambient built-in speaker system. Outside, a full-property sprinkler system ensures effortless curb appeal for this fully upgraded gem. Extended backyard, no back neighbours!!

Key facts

• Stone center island
• Gourmet kitchen
• 6,351 sq ft lot

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• STONE CENTER ISLAND
• CUSTOM BACKSPLASH TILING
• PREMIUM PULL-OUT CABINETRY
• UPGRADED WOOD-LOOK TILE
• BUILT-IN SPEAKER SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community: Sienna; Community amenities include tennis courts and trails; Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Built in 2015; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick, stone, and vinyl siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Concrete road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14 x 17); Secondary bedrooms on the second floor (approx. 10 x 11; 14 x 11; 10 x 13)
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Family room; Living room; 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-307 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $396k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $442k (1.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $396k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Billy Baines Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,296 students, 37% FRL); Ridge Point H S (math 61% / reading 69%, grade B, #198 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 3,170 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 35% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1229 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $395,707 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.92%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $465,896
• List price: $449,900
• Delta: -3.43%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10018 Foggy Riv	0.12mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,944 (+3%)	1mo	$449,999	$153	81
2610 Lazy Vine Ln	0.45mi	4/4.5	2,907 (+2%)	1mo	$715,000	$246	73
10143 Deerpark Dr	0.49mi	4/3.5	2,874 (+1%)	2mo	$475,000	$165	72
10023 Starhill Ct	0.45mi	4/3.0	2,930 (+3%)	4mo	$450,000	$154	67
9507 Shaded Tree Dr	0.72mi	4/3.5	2,935 (+3%)	4mo	$445,000	$152	56
10439 Caribou Ct	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,924 (+2%)	3mo	$414,900	$142	54
2827 Monarch Xing	0.54mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,119 (+9%)	0mo	$550,000	$176	54
3031 Reindeer Run	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,658 (-7%)	1mo	$390,000	$147	51
9418 San Marco Dr	0.60mi	4/4.5	3,266 (+14%)	4mo	$745,000	$228	43
2610 Parker Oak Pass	0.75mi	4/3.5	3,220 (+13%)	1mo	$510,000	$158	41
2018 Edgemont Pl	0.67mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,227 (+13%)	2mo	$499,500	$155	38
2303 Jasper Pt	0.73mi	4/3.5	3,279 (+15%)	2mo	$519,000	$158	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-79,263
• Equity at exit: $94,357

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-118,977
• Equity at exit: $87,397

Cash invested: $125,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1229
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,419 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,359
• Tax from tax record: −$1,130 /mo · $13,561/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$121
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$928
• Net cashflow: $-307

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,807

Max offer price $395,707

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-52	-5% $-179	+0% $-307	+5% $-434	+10% $-561
Rent	-10% $-656	-5% $-481	+0% $-307	+5% $-132	+10% $42
Rate	-1.0pp $-80	-0.5pp $-192	base $-307	+0.5pp $-423	+1.0pp $-542

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,475
• Closing costs: $13,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	45d	1	0.88mi
9006 Meadow Bridge Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	3958	$6,580	$1.66	4d	1	0.95mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	0d	1	1.05mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	24d	1	1.15mi
2718 Van Gogh Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	3036	$3,595	$1.18	12d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $121 · $1,452/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $449,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-04-23
   listed $449,900 Active 486-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $13,561 · $1,130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,561 · $1,130/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,029
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,201
• − Property taxes: −$13,561
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,242
• − Management: −$4,242
• − HOA: −$1,452
• − Depreciation: −$13,088
• Taxable loss: −$11,007
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,642
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,040/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $449,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+59.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $13,561 · +111.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.