191 Sylvan Lake Rd Unit 28A · Chelsea Cove, NY 12533

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 900 sqft · Condo · 52 Days on market

Built 1940 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Summer at Sylvan Lake at Hill View a 6 month co-op community in an attached bungalow that offers a good size master bedroom plus a 2nd BR, large enclosed porch, full bath, gorgeous in ground swimming pool, partying at central club house, on ground laundry, large deck, small kit, LR/dinning combo. Come and enjoy all that Dutchess County has to offer and great public golf course near by. NEED A LARGER UNIT ATTACHED UNIT CAN COME AS PACKAGE DEAL w/END UNIT,Level 1 Desc:ENCLOSED DECK, LIV RM/ DINING, MASTER BR, 2ND BR, BATH. OPEN,AboveGrade:900,ROOF:Asphalt Shingles,ASNFENCLDS:Pool Service,Taxes,ExteriorFeatures:Outside Lighting,AMENITIES:Pool,FOUNDATION:Piling,FLOORING:Wall to Wall Carpet,Laminate

Key facts

• New floors
• Screened front porch
• Community pool

Tags

• NEW FLOORS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• SCREENED FRONT PORCH
• REAR DECK
• TRANQUIL YARD SPACE
• COMMUNITY POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Self-managed association; Association covers water and sewer

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Electric service by NYSEG; Public sewer; Private trash collection
• Home design: Stock cooperative; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Frame construction with shingle and wood siding
• Exterior features: In-ground pool; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One or more bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window air conditioning units; Other heating
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Partially finished attic with pull-down stairs; Estimated property condition; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

🏢 Co-op / cooperative unit. The $85,000 price buys shares in the cooperative corporation, not the real estate itself — so it isn't comparable to a fee-simple sale price, and the cashflow / cap-rate / 1%-rule cards below (which assume you own the property and can rent it out) don't apply here. Expect board approval and a monthly maintenance fee on top of the price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $85k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.7% vs local median 2.5% in Chelsea Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Arlington Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #106 of 590 in NY (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Beekman School (math 34% / reading 74%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 381 students, 21% FRL); Union Vale Middle School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A, #76 of 729 statewide, top 11%, 907 students, 21% FRL); Arlington High School (math 95% / reading 58%, grade A-, #612 of 1,100 statewide, top 56%, 2,547 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: 202 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $85k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 69.27%
• DSCR: 4.08
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $84,774
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: 0.27%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.10×
• Total profit: $73,766
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 72.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.44×
• Total profit: $177,060
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12533

• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,483 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $1,374

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,433	-5% $1,403	+0% $1,374	+5% $1,344	+10% $1,315
Rent	-10% $1,178	-5% $1,276	+0% $1,374	+5% $1,472	+10% $1,570
Rate	-1.0pp $1,417	-0.5pp $1,395	base $1,374	+0.5pp $1,352	+1.0pp $1,329

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
71 Miller Rd Hopewell Junction, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	750	$2,750	$3.67	44d	3	0.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    listed $85,000 Active 849-char remark
16. 2021-10-09
    soldstatus $47,000 703-char remark

    Show marketing remark (703 chars)

    Summer at Sylvan Lake at Hill View a 6 month co-op community in an attached bungalow that offers a good size master bedroom plus a 2nd BR, large enclosed porch, full bath, gorgeous in ground swimming pool, partying at central club house, on ground laundry, large deck, small kit, LR/dinning combo. Come and enjoy all that Dutchess County has to offer and great public golf course near by. NEED A LARGER UNIT ATTACHED UNIT CAN COME AS PACKAGE DEAL w/END UNIT,Level 1 Desc:ENCLOSED DECK, LIV RM/ DINING, MASTER BR, 2ND BR, BATH. OPEN,AboveGrade:900,ROOF:Asphalt Shingles,ASNFENCLDS:Pool Service,Taxes,ExteriorFeatures:Outside Lighting,AMENITIES:Pool,FOUNDATION:Piling,FLOORING:Wall to Wall Carpet,Laminate

17. 2021-05-31
    listed $44,000 703-char remark

    Show marketing remark (703 chars)

    Summer at Sylvan Lake at Hill View a 6 month co-op community in an attached bungalow that offers a good size master bedroom plus a 2nd BR, large enclosed porch, full bath, gorgeous in ground swimming pool, partying at central club house, on ground laundry, large deck, small kit, LR/dinning combo. Come and enjoy all that Dutchess County has to offer and great public golf course near by. NEED A LARGER UNIT ATTACHED UNIT CAN COME AS PACKAGE DEAL w/END UNIT,Level 1 Desc:ENCLOSED DECK, LIV RM/ DINING, MASTER BR, 2ND BR, BATH. OPEN,AboveGrade:900,ROOF:Asphalt Shingles,ASNFENCLDS:Pool Service,Taxes,ExteriorFeatures:Outside Lighting,AMENITIES:Pool,FOUNDATION:Piling,FLOORING:Wall to Wall Carpet,Laminate

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,792
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,383
• − Management: −$2,383
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $16,091
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,862
• After-tax cash flow: $12,625/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This property requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and appeal to buyers and renters. Key areas for improvement include the kitchen and bathrooms, as well as exterior updates.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen cabinets — Older cabinets in poor condition
• Major Appliances — Outdated appliances
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Basic fixtures in fair condition
• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered siding with some discoloration

Value-add opportunities

• Resale New kitchen cabinets and appliances — Modern kitchen will attract more buyers
• Resale Updated bathrooms — Modern bathrooms will appeal to buyers
• Resale Fresh exterior paint — Fresh paint will improve curb appeal
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping will attract renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Older cabinets in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
Appliances · Outdated appliances	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · Basic fixtures in fair condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · Weathered siding with some discoloration	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$48,000–165,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale New kitchen cabinets and appliances — Modern kitchen will attract more buyers ↑
• Resale Updated bathrooms — Modern bathrooms will appeal to buyers ↑
• Resale Fresh exterior paint — Fresh paint will improve curb appeal ↑
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping will attract renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Arlington Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603270
• Math proficiency: 77% ▲ 19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,597
• Composite: 63.47/100
• National rank: #613
• State rank: #106 of 590 in NY

Livability — Chelsea Cove

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Dutchess County · 188,048 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 27,325
• Household income: $141,585
• Rent vs Own: 10.3% rent · 89.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 190.0

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Asian 6% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.32%
• Current HPI: 232.2351
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+93.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $85,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-09 Sold (MLS) $47,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-31 Listed $44,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid