7737 Birchfield Rd · Wise, VA 24279

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,742 sqft · SingleFamily · 92 Days on market

Built 1973 1.16 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Our loss is your gain! This 3 bedroom, 2 bath home has been partially renovated, and many of the remaining materials are still on-site and ready for you to finish. Due to a change in health, the owners must sell as-is, offering a great opportunity to build instant equity. Recent upgrades include brand new kitchen appliances and cabinets, new flooring in select areas, a new electrical panel, and replaced floor joists—a solid start to your renovation vision. The property also includes an additional home currently being used for storage, offering multiple possibilities such as a guest house, rental, workshop, or studio depending on your needs. Nestled in a beautiful, remote setting, this

Key facts

• New flooring
• New electrical panel
• 1.16 acre lot

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW ELECTRICAL PANEL
• REPLACED FLOOR JOISTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $361 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 5.1% in Wise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#99 in VA, #3,153 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Wise County Public School District (town): math 74% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #11 of 131 in VA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: J.W. Adams Combined (math 83% / reading 85%, grade A+, #87 of 1,108 statewide, top 8%, 504 students, 83% FRL); Union Middle (math 58% / reading 70%, grade B+, #127 of 342 statewide, top 37%, 583 students, 89% FRL); Central High (math 87% / reading 87%, grade A, #16 of 319 statewide, top 5%, 674 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 55% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Wise County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,250 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.42%
• DSCR: 2.09
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.55% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $30,316
• Equity at exit: $31,848

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.72×
• Total profit: $78,035
• Equity at exit: $47,670

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24279

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,197 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $361

Break-even live

Break-even rent $740

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $413	-5% $387	+0% $361	+5% $335	+10% $309
Rent	-10% $266	-5% $314	+0% $361	+5% $408	+10% $455
Rate	-1.0pp $399	-0.5pp $380	base $361	+0.5pp $341	+1.0pp $322

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-08
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-06
   listed $75,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,364
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$1,172
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,149
• − Management: −$1,149
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $3,386
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$813
• After-tax cash flow: $3,518/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wise County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5104080
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $35,624
• Composite: 63.37/100
• National rank: #625
• State rank: #11 of 131 in VA

Livability — Wise

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #3153

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,679

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,714 people
• By 2030: 33,742 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 29,870 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 26,233 · -26.5%
• By 2075: 18,296 · -48.8%
• By 2100: 12,147 · -66.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.3) · D 18.1% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.7pp · 2024: -63.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.3 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.0 2012: R+48.8 2008: R+27.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Current HPI: 147.686
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-08 Pending — TVRMLS
• 2025-12-06 Listed $75,000 TVRMLS