127 Geronimo Trl · Shawneeland, VA 22602

$213,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 945 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1965 1.92 ac lot Est $264k · 19% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming house in the woods. Combination of 5 lots to equal almost 2 acres for great privacy, can not be subdivided. Upgraded cabinets in open Kitchen area with soft close drawers. Appliances convey, and all furniture conveys. (except the secretary in the photo) Large Sunroom with 4 Anderson sliding doors to let the outside in. Nice built in closets and dressers in 2 bedrooms. New water softener system and newer hot water tank in laundry room. Propane stove with the appearance of a woodstove for extra heat. Mini split for A/C. 2 car detached garage. Perfect spot to enjoy nature.

Key facts

• 1.92 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1965

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is outside city limits; Location type: Rural
• HOA & community: Association recreation fee ($660); Association fees include road maintenance and common area maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (front entry) with 2 garage spaces; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Well water; On-site septic; Electric heating and cooling
• Home design: Detached structure; Single-story living (main-level bedrooms and bath implied); Year built source: Assessor; Ownership: Fee simple
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Crawl space foundation; Building winterized
• Exterior features: Rural, sloping lot with trees/wooded; Not in a federal flood zone; Above grade and below grade structures noted

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on main level
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard electric heat; Ductless/Mini-split cooling; Electric hot water
• Interior features: No basement; Living area source: Assessor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $213k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $306 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (5.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.3% in Shawneeland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#359 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Frederick County Public School District (rural): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #65 of 131 in VA (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 872 units permitted in Frederick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Frederick County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $200,220 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.16%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $263,655
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
803 Tomahawk Trl	0.29mi	3/1.5	960 (+2%)	1mo	$246,000	$256	81
111 Genesee Trl	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (-2%)	0mo	$240,000	$260	75
111 Dakota Trl	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,029 (+9%)	8mo	$290,000	$282	65
109 Gannentaha Trl	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,008 (+7%)	23mo	$277,500	$275	45
212 Graywolf Trl	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	880 (-7%)	12mo	$257,770	$293	40
117 Buffalo Trl	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (+10%)	14mo	$290,000	$279	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-20,979
• Equity at exit: $31,759

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-16,230
• Equity at exit: $18,416

Cash invested: $59,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22602

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,006 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,117
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $869/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,618

Max offer price $213,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $427	-5% $366	+0% $306	+5% $246	+10% $186
Rent	-10% $148	-5% $227	+0% $306	+5% $385	+10% $465
Rate	-1.0pp $413	-0.5pp $360	base $306	+0.5pp $251	+1.0pp $195

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,250
• Closing costs: $6,390
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $213,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $213,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $224,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $224,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $224,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $224,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $224,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $224,000 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,000 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,000 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $224,000 Active 46 DOM
18. 2026-05-18
    price $224,000
19. 2026-04-14
    listed $235,000 Active
20. 2022-11-23
    soldstatus $258,000 Closed 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    Charming house in the woods. Combination of 5 lots to equal almost 2 acres for great privacy, can not be subdivided. Upgraded cabinets in open Kitchen area with soft close drawers. Appliances convey, and all furniture conveys. (except the secretary in the photo) Large Sunroom with 4 Anderson sliding doors to let the outside in. Nice built in closets and dressers in 2 bedrooms. New water softener system and newer hot water tank in laundry room. Propane stove with the appearance of a woodstove for extra heat. Mini split for A/C. 2 car detached garage. Perfect spot to enjoy nature.

21. 2022-11-23
    soldstatus $258,000

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    Charming house in the woods. Combination of 5 lots to equal almost 2 acres for great privacy, can not be subdivided. Upgraded cabinets in open Kitchen area with soft close drawers. Appliances convey, and all furniture conveys. (except the secretary in the photo) Large Sunroom with 4 Anderson sliding doors to let the outside in. Nice built in closets and dressers in 2 bedrooms. New water softener system and newer hot water tank in laundry room. Propane stove with the appearance of a woodstove for extra heat. Mini split for A/C. 2 car detached garage. Perfect spot to enjoy nature.

22. 2022-11-01
    price $258,000 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    Charming house in the woods. Combination of 5 lots to equal almost 2 acres for great privacy, can not be subdivided. Upgraded cabinets in open Kitchen area with soft close drawers. Appliances convey, and all furniture conveys. (except the secretary in the photo) Large Sunroom with 4 Anderson sliding doors to let the outside in. Nice built in closets and dressers in 2 bedrooms. New water softener system and newer hot water tank in laundry room. Propane stove with the appearance of a woodstove for extra heat. Mini split for A/C. 2 car detached garage. Perfect spot to enjoy nature.

23. 2022-11-01
    historical Active Under Contract 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    Charming house in the woods. Combination of 5 lots to equal almost 2 acres for great privacy, can not be subdivided. Upgraded cabinets in open Kitchen area with soft close drawers. Appliances convey, and all furniture conveys. (except the secretary in the photo) Large Sunroom with 4 Anderson sliding doors to let the outside in. Nice built in closets and dressers in 2 bedrooms. New water softener system and newer hot water tank in laundry room. Propane stove with the appearance of a woodstove for extra heat. Mini split for A/C. 2 car detached garage. Perfect spot to enjoy nature.

24. 2022-10-24
    listed $249,900 Active 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    Charming house in the woods. Combination of 5 lots to equal almost 2 acres for great privacy, can not be subdivided. Upgraded cabinets in open Kitchen area with soft close drawers. Appliances convey, and all furniture conveys. (except the secretary in the photo) Large Sunroom with 4 Anderson sliding doors to let the outside in. Nice built in closets and dressers in 2 bedrooms. New water softener system and newer hot water tank in laundry room. Propane stove with the appearance of a woodstove for extra heat. Mini split for A/C. 2 car detached garage. Perfect spot to enjoy nature.

25. 2022-10-10
    historical $249,900 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    Charming house in the woods. Combination of 5 lots to equal almost 2 acres for great privacy, can not be subdivided. Upgraded cabinets in open Kitchen area with soft close drawers. Appliances convey, and all furniture conveys. (except the secretary in the photo) Large Sunroom with 4 Anderson sliding doors to let the outside in. Nice built in closets and dressers in 2 bedrooms. New water softener system and newer hot water tank in laundry room. Propane stove with the appearance of a woodstove for extra heat. Mini split for A/C. 2 car detached garage. Perfect spot to enjoy nature.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $869 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,747 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: +$878/yr (+$73/mo · 101.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,066
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,931
• − Property taxes: −$869
• − Insurance: −$1,065
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,925
• − Management: −$1,925
• − Depreciation: −$6,196
• Taxable income: $154
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$37
• After-tax cash flow: $3,638/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frederick County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101470
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $67,049
• Composite: 49.75/100
• National rank: #1964
• State rank: #65 of 131 in VA

Livability — Shawneeland

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #359
• US rank: #14402

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shawneeland, VA
• County: Frederick County · 60,887 people
• Metro: Winchester, VA-WV
• Population (ZIP): 32,840
• Household income: $101,398
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 294.0

Population outlook (Frederick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 92,976 people
• By 2030: 97,195 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 104,149 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 108,407 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 116,431 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 114,323 · +23.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Frederick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.2% · R 63.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -21.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+27.4 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+21.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.39%
• Current HPI: 209.8801
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.55%
• Metro: Winchester, VA-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-10.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $224,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $235,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $258,000 Public Records
• 2022-11-23 Sold (MLS) $258,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-11-01 Price Changed $258,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-11-01 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-10-24 Listed $249,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-10-10 Coming Soon $249,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $869 · -36.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.