4500 Dennisville Rd · Amelia Court House, VA 23002

$265,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,412 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1975 5.00 ac lot Est $319k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Bank Owned Foreclosure * If you are looking for privacy & convenience, this is it! Located down a private lane just off R614 in Amelia County on 5+/-acres rest this 3 bedroom home. Features 3Bds. with potential for 4th on second floor. Country kitchen with wood floors & brick fireplace, large laundry room, deck, workshop/storage building and more. You'll love the large yard and the babbling creek that runs along the property line. Needs TLC. If you're looking for a place to 'Hang your Hat' with lots of privacy come take a look! Property being sold as is.

Key facts

• 5 acre lot
• Built 1975

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-300/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.5% in Amelia Court House — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#329 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing D, amenities F, commute F.
• Amelia County Public School District (rural): math 44% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #83 of 131 in VA (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Amelia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Amelia County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $265k implies a 216% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 20% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,049 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.40%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $319,112
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4715 Dennisville Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,577 (+12%)	15mo	$356,950	$226	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-44,665
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-41,484
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23002

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $789/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,982

Max offer price $260,591

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $125	-5% $50	+0% $-25	+5% $-100	+10% $-175
Rent	-10% $-179	-5% $-102	+0% $-25	+5% $52	+10% $129
Rate	-1.0pp $108	-0.5pp $42	base $-25	+0.5pp $-94	+1.0pp $-163

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-19
   listed $265,000 Active
3. 2009-06-26
   soldstatus $83,900 575-char remark

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   * Bank Owned Foreclosure * If you are looking for privacy & convenience, this is it! Located down a private lane just off R614 in Amelia County on 5+/-acres rest this 3 bedroom home. Features 3Bds. with potential for 4th on second floor. Country kitchen with wood floors & brick fireplace, large laundry room, deck, workshop/storage building and more. You'll love the large yard and the babbling creek that runs along the property line. Needs TLC. If you're looking for a place to 'Hang your Hat' with lots of privacy come take a look! Property being sold as is.

4. 2009-06-26
   soldstatus $83,900 575-char remark

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   * Bank Owned Foreclosure * If you are looking for privacy & convenience, this is it! Located down a private lane just off R614 in Amelia County on 5+/-acres rest this 3 bedroom home. Features 3Bds. with potential for 4th on second floor. Country kitchen with wood floors & brick fireplace, large laundry room, deck, workshop/storage building and more. You'll love the large yard and the babbling creek that runs along the property line. Needs TLC. If you're looking for a place to 'Hang your Hat' with lots of privacy come take a look! Property being sold as is.

5. 2008-10-16
   listed $83,900 575-char remark

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   * Bank Owned Foreclosure * If you are looking for privacy & convenience, this is it! Located down a private lane just off R614 in Amelia County on 5+/-acres rest this 3 bedroom home. Features 3Bds. with potential for 4th on second floor. Country kitchen with wood floors & brick fireplace, large laundry room, deck, workshop/storage building and more. You'll love the large yard and the babbling creek that runs along the property line. Needs TLC. If you're looking for a place to 'Hang your Hat' with lots of privacy come take a look! Property being sold as is.

6. 2008-10-16
   listed $83,900 575-char remark

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   * Bank Owned Foreclosure * If you are looking for privacy & convenience, this is it! Located down a private lane just off R614 in Amelia County on 5+/-acres rest this 3 bedroom home. Features 3Bds. with potential for 4th on second floor. Country kitchen with wood floors & brick fireplace, large laundry room, deck, workshop/storage building and more. You'll love the large yard and the babbling creek that runs along the property line. Needs TLC. If you're looking for a place to 'Hang your Hat' with lots of privacy come take a look! Property being sold as is.

7. 2008-06-27
   historical
8. 2008-06-27
   historical
9. 2008-04-11
   listed $142,500
10. 2008-04-11
    listed $142,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $789 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,173 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,384/yr (+$115/mo · 175.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,406
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$789
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,872
• − Management: −$1,872
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$5,006
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,201
• After-tax cash flow: $902/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amelia County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100180
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -42.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $53,185
• Composite: 46.33/100
• National rank: #2468
• State rank: #83 of 131 in VA

Livability — Amelia Court House

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #329
• US rank: #12495

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing D Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,657

Population outlook (Amelia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,928 people
• By 2030: 12,819 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 12,381 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 11,607 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 10,186 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 9,067 · -29.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 22% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Amelia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.4) · D 27.6% · R 71.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -22.7pp · 2024: -44.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.4 2020: R+37.7 2016: R+36.3 2012: R+26.7 2008: R+22.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.11%
• Current HPI: 251.1595
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+86.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-19 Listed $265,000 CVRMLS
• 2009-06-26 Sold (MLS) $83,900 CVRMLS
• 2009-06-26 Sold (MLS) $83,900 CVRMLS
• 2008-10-16 Listed $83,900 CVRMLS
• 2008-10-16 Listed $83,900 CVRMLS
• 2008-06-27 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2008-06-27 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2008-04-11 Listed $142,500 CVRMLS
• 2008-04-11 Listed $142,500 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $789 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.