3861 Victory Dr · Shreveport, LA 71104

$68,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 531 Days on market

Built 1945 6,098 sqft lot $70/sqft · 25% below area Est $91k · 25% under ↓ 9% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Built 1945
• Listed 530 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $68k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $149 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($912 rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $60k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 5.7% in Shreveport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#270 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Caddo Parish (urban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #53 of 98 in LA (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 146 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 221 units permitted in Caddo Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $474 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caddo County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 531 days — a 12% lower offer ($60k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo; built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $60,280 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 531 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.83%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $90,978
• List price: $68,500
• Delta: -24.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 E Elmwood St	0.31mi	2/1.0	948 (-3%)	1mo	$89,900	$95	79
232 E Gregg St	0.19mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,003 (+2%)	2mo	$75,000	$75	78
230 Elmwood E	0.37mi	2/1.0	972 (-1%)	5mo	$90,000	$93	78
3845 Victory Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	994 (+1%)	13mo	$79,000	$79	76
271 E Linden St	0.49mi	2/1.0	1,003 (+2%)	4mo	$71,900	$72	70
257 E Dudley Dr	0.24mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,035 (+6%)	5mo	$137,500	$133	69
479 Ockley	0.49mi	2/1.0	1,024 (+4%)	2mo	$135,000	$132	68
245 E Elmwood St	0.36mi	2/1.0	848 (-14%)	2mo	$40,500	$48	59
215 E Slattery Blvd	0.18mi	2/1.0	1,122 (+14%)	15mo	$90,000	$80	55
253 E Dudley Dr	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,075 (+10%)	17mo	$94,500	$88	54
225 E Elmwood St	0.34mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,117 (+14%)	2mo	$89,500	$80	53
226 Albert Ave	0.71mi	2/1.0	1,112 (+14%)	6mo	$130,000	$117	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-1,026
• Equity at exit: $10,214

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $13,765
• Equity at exit: $5,923

Cash invested: $19,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71104

• Home prices YoY: -32.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $912 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$359
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $384/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$192
• Net cashflow: $149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $724

Max offer price $68,500

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,125
• Closing costs: $2,055
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
146 E Slattery Blvd Shreveport, LA	1.0	1.0	567	$750	$1.32	21d	1	0.15mi
219 E Slattery Blvd Shreveport, LA	2.0	1.0	1047	$1,000	$0.96	43d	1	0.18mi
553 Gladstone Blvd Unit A Shreveport, LA	1.0	1.0	850	$700	$0.82	43d	1	0.73mi
336 Atkins Ave Shreveport, LA	2.0	1.0	912	$900	$0.99	43d	1	0.74mi
3307 Creswell Ave Shreveport, LA	1.0	1.0	525	$800	$1.52	21d	1	0.77mi
3307 Creswell Ave Shreveport, LA	1.0	1.0	700	$850	$1.21	43d	1	0.77mi
926 Elmwood St Unit 928 Shreveport, LA	1.0	1.0	900	$695	$0.77	43d	1	0.98mi
3820 Fairfield Ave Unit 37 Shreveport, LA	2.0	2.0	1084	$1,050	$0.97	43d	1	1.03mi
140 Wilkinson St Unit 140 Shreveport, LA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	21d	1	1.04mi
3827 Maryland Ave Shreveport, LA	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,400	$1.36	43d	1	1.07mi
3730 Fairfield Ave Shreveport, LA	1.0	1.0	783	$1,088	$1.39	21d	1	1.07mi
654 Columbia St Shreveport, LA	1.0	1.0	600	$850	$1.42	21d	1	1.07mi
640 Kirby Pl Unit 640 Shreveport, LA	1.0	1.0	850	$600	$0.71	21d	1	1.12mi
810 Rutherford St Unit A Shreveport, LA	1.0	1.0	700	$800	$1.14	13d	1	1.13mi
342 Prospect St Shreveport, LA	1.0	1.0	800	$650	$0.81	21d	1	1.19mi
2618 Roosevelt Ave Shreveport, LA	3.0	1.0	845	$1,000	$1.18	21d	1	1.22mi
3100 Fairfield Ave Shreveport, LA	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1001	$1,400	$1.40	21d	1	1.30mi
204 Boulevard St Shreveport, LA	2.0	1.0	1028	$1,195	$1.16	43d	1	1.30mi
546 Dalzell St Shreveport, LA	2.0	1.0	1000	$875	$0.88	21d	1	1.32mi
202 E College St Apt 2 Shreveport, LA	1.0	1.0	800	$600	$0.75	43d	1	1.37mi
431 College St Shreveport, LA	2.0	2.0	1100	$850	$0.77	13d	1	1.38mi
818 E Washington St Shreveport, LA	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	21d	1	1.38mi
320 College St Unit A Shreveport, LA	1.0	1.0	800	$650	$0.81	21d	1	1.39mi
2317 Freewater St Shreveport, LA	2.0	1.0	695	$750	$1.08	13d	1	1.44mi
1340 Lincoln St Shreveport, LA	2.0	1.0	1120	$850	$0.76	13d	1	1.47mi
1340 Lincoln St Shreveport, LA	2.0	1.0	1120	$950	$0.85	43d	1	1.47mi
533 Merrick St Unit C Shreveport, LA	1.0	1.0	825	$595	$0.72	21d	1	1.48mi
557 Merrick St Shreveport, LA	1.0	1.0	950	$725	$0.76	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $68,500 Active 531 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $68,500 Active 530 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $68,500 Active 529 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $68,500 Active 528 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $68,500 Active 526 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $68,500 Active 525 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $68,500 Active 523 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $68,500 Active 522 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $68,500 Active 521 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $68,500 Active 520 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $68,500 Active 517 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $68,500 Active 516 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $68,500 Active 515 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $68,500 Active 514 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $68,500 Active 513 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $68,500 Active 512 DOM
17. 2025-08-25
    price $68,500
18. 2025-06-25
    status Active
19. 2025-06-04
    historical Active Contingent
20. 2025-01-04
    listed $70,000 Active
21. 2025-01-03
    historical
22. 2023-01-13
    listed $73,500 Active
23. 2023-01-01
    historical
24. 2022-01-02
    historical
25. 2022-01-02
    listed $75,000 Active
26. 2021-01-01
    listed $75,000 Active
27. 1998-01-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $384 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $384 · $32/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AH · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,947
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,837
• − Property taxes: −$384
• − Insurance: −$2,167
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$876
• − Management: −$876
• − Depreciation: −$1,993
• Taxable income: $815
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$196
• After-tax cash flow: $1,591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caddo Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200300
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -33.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -30.00%
• Median HH income: $39,227
• Composite: 22.23/100
• National rank: #8148
• State rank: #53 of 98 in LA

Livability — Shreveport

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #270
• US rank: #19730

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shreveport, LA
• County: Caddo Parish · 178,536 people
• City population: 164,123
• Metro: Shreveport-Bossier City, LA
• Population (ZIP): 12,975
• Household income: $56,833
• Rent vs Own: 54.7% rent · 45.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 759.0

Population outlook (Caddo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 243,190 people
• By 2030: 237,231 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 222,502 · -8.5%
• By 2050: 206,516 · -15.1%
• By 2075: 165,706 · -31.9%
• By 2100: 122,262 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 28% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Lithuanian 4% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caddo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.6% · R 47.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.6pp toward D · 2008: 3.0pp · 2024: 4.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.6 2020: D+6.8 2016: D+4.2 2012: D+4.9 2008: D+3.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.61%
• Current HPI: 104.3781
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.56%
• Metro: Shreveport-Bossier City, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-8.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $68,500 NTREIS
• 2025-06-25 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-06-04 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-01-04 Listed $70,000 NTREIS
• 2025-01-03 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-01-13 Listed $73,500 NTREIS
• 2023-01-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2022-01-02 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2022-01-02 Listed $75,000 NTREIS
• 2021-01-01 Listed $75,000 NTREIS
• 1998-01-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $384 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.