Mitchell Townhome Plan · Sevierville, TN 37876

$295,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,554 sqft · Townhouse · 99 Days on market

Good condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Mitchell is a thoughtfully designed townhome offers 1,554 square feet of modern living space with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, combining functionality, style, and comfort in every detail. The main level features an open-concept layout with a bright living area that flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining spaces perfect for entertaining or relaxing at home. A conveniently placed powder room and ample storage add to the home's practicality. Upstairs, the private primary suite includes an en-suite bathroom and a spacious closet for everyday convenience. Three additional bedrooms share a full bath, offering flexibility to have guests, a dedicated home office, or a study area.

Key facts

• Garage
• Listed 98 days

🏗️ New construction. The $295,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $368,018.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $296k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (25.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (34.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (34.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 1.4% in Sevierville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#323 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Sevier County (rural): math 31% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #62 of 139 in TN (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: New Center Elementary (math 32% / reading 28%, grade F, #415 of 952 statewide, top 44%, 855 students, 0% FRL); Seymour Junior High (math 40% / reading 30%, grade F, #65 of 333 statewide, top 20%, 766 students, 0% FRL); Sevier County High School (math 20% / reading 38%, grade F, #92 of 332 statewide, top 28%, 1,248 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 1593 active listings in the ZIP; 1,594 units permitted in Sevier County in 2024 (456 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sevier County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($269k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,102 (34.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.85%
• DSCR: 0.47
• GRM: 15.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $368,018
• List price: $295,990
• Delta: -19.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
954 Topside Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,538 (-1%)	10mo	$510,000	$332	64
1018 Cedar Ln Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-4%)	9mo	$350,000	$233	60
508 Broadview Dr	1.35mi	4/2.0	1,531 (-2%)	8mo	$320,000	$209	54
529 Hardin Ln	1.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,605 (+3%)	2mo	$400,000	$249	51
1105 Center St #7	0.30mi	4/4.0	1,841 (+18%)	8mo	$598,000	$325	48
1105 Center St Unit #5	0.30mi	4/4.0	1,841 (+18%)	10mo	$600,000	$326	47
1105 Center St #3	0.30mi	4/4.0	1,841 (+18%)	10mo	$600,000	$326	47
1105 Center St #6	0.30mi	4/4.0	1,841 (+18%)	10mo	$599,000	$325	47
1011 Old Knoxville Hwy	1.20mi	4/2.0	1,456 (-6%)	8mo	$389,000	$267	46
628 Broadview Dr	1.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,218 (-22%)	2mo	$335,000	$275	31
205 Lexington Pl	1.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,931 (+24%)	3mo	$500,000	$259	31
125 High Dr	1.12mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,339 (-14%)	5mo	$90,000	$67	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $129,979
• Equity at exit: $331,540

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.11×
• Total profit: $423,669
• Equity at exit: $714,978

Cash invested: $103,045 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 12 active · 1 under contract
• Median asking: $294,825 ($212/sqft)
• Median days on market: 9 d
• This list price: 67% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +11.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 37876

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 1593
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,931 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,930
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$460 /mo · $5,520/yr
• Insurance: −$153
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $-1,018

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,219

Max offer price $220,743

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-763	-5% $-891	+0% $-1,018	+5% $-1,145	+10% $-1,272
Rent	-10% $-1,170	-5% $-1,094	+0% $-1,018	+5% $-942	+10% $-865
Rate	-1.0pp $-832	-0.5pp $-924	base $-1,018	+0.5pp $-1,113	+1.0pp $-1,210

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,005
• Closing costs: $11,041
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Mitchell Townhome Plan, Sevierville, TN 37876Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price: $295,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: TownhomeInventory type: Plan
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,554 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan: Mitchell Townhome (new construction plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $295,990 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $295,990 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $295,990 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $295,990 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $295,990 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $295,990 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $295,990 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $295,990 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-07-25
   days on market $295,990 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $295,990 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $295,990 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $295,990 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $295,990 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $295,990 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-07-16
    days on market $295,990 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $295,990 Active 75 DOM
17. 2026-07-14
    days on market $295,990 Active 74 DOM
18. 2026-07-13
    days on market $295,990 Active 73 DOM
19. 2026-07-12
    days on market $295,990 Active 72 DOM
20. 2026-07-11
    days on market $295,990 Active 71 DOM
21. 2026-07-10
    days on market $295,990 Active 70 DOM
22. 2026-07-09
    days on market $295,990 Active 69 DOM
23. 2026-07-08
    days on market $295,990 Active 68 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $295,990 Active 67 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $295,990 Active 66 DOM
26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $295,990 Active 65 DOM
27. 2026-07-04
    days on market $295,990 Active 64 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $295,990 Active 63 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $295,990 Active 62 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $295,990 Active 61 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $295,990 Active 60 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $295,990 Active 59 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $295,990 Active 58 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $295,990 Active 57 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $295,990 Active 56 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $295,990 Active 55 DOM
37. 2026-06-23
    days on market $295,990 Active 52 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $295,990 Active 51 DOM
39. 2026-06-19
    days on market $295,990 Active 49 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $295,990 Active 48 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $295,990 Active 47 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $295,990 Active 46 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $295,990 Active 45 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $295,990 Active 43 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $295,990 Active 42 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $295,990 Active 40 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $295,990 Active 39 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $295,990 Active 38 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $295,990 Active 37 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $295,990 Active 32 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,172
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,615
• − Property taxes: −$5,520
• − Insurance: −$1,840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,854
• − Management: −$1,854
• − Depreciation: −$10,706
• Taxable loss: −$19,216
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,612
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,601/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,770–$23,310 screening

This well-maintained Mitchell Townhome is in good condition with a modern and functional design. It offers a good return on investment with minimal repairs and updates needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances replacement — Modernizing the kitchen appliances can make the home more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom updates — Updating bathrooms can significantly increase the home's resale value by making it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Flooring replacement — Replacing worn-out flooring can improve the home's overall appearance and increase its value for both resale and rental purposes. ↑
• Both HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency, making it more attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 27/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Sevierville Intermediate F TN #584/952 Nat'l #31,434/41,679 Middle Sevierville Middle School F TN #116/333 Nat'l #9,545/14,009 High Sevier County High School F TN #92/332 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sevier County
• NCES district ID: 4703780
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,730
• Composite: 25.12/100
• National rank: #7527
• State rank: #62 of 139 in TN

D Composite livability gradescore 57/100

Livability — Sevierville

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #323
• US rank: #21663

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sevierville, TN
• County: Sevier County · 107,903 people
• Metro: Sevierville, TN
• Population (ZIP): 33,561
• Household income: $58,277
• Rent vs Own: 23.4% rent · 76.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Sevier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 107,903 people
• By 2030: 113,633 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 123,969 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 132,123 · +22.4%
• By 2075: 148,524 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 153,436 · +42.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Sevier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 18.9% · R 80.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -48.1pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+57.6 2016: R+61.7 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+48.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.06%
• Current HPI: 477.19
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.57%
• Metro: Sevierville, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Mitchell Townhome Plan, Sevierville, TN 37876Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price: $295,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: TownhomeInventory type: Plan
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,554 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan: Mitchell Townhome (new construction plan)