204 Quail Run Way Way SE · Walthourville, GA 31301

$298,925

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,065 sqft · SingleFamily · 7 Days on market

Built 2026 0.65 ac lot Est $308k · at est. $34/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Prepare to be charmed by our Bagley plan – a beautiful home boasting 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, thoughtfully designed with flexible spaces to suit anyone. Enter through a welcoming foyer that provides a clear view of the versatile flex room, perfect for a home office or extra living area. Continuing down the hallway, you'll find a spacious family room that flows effortlessly into the kitchen, featuring a corner pantry and a breakfast bar that keeps the cook engaged with family and guests. Upstairs, three generously-sized bedrooms with plenty of closet space share a conveniently positioned hall bathroom. The primary suite offers a luxurious bathroom complete with a garden tub, a sep

Key facts

• Laundry room
• Corner pantry
• Flex room

Tags

• FLEX ROOM
• CORNER PANTRY
• BREAKFAST BAR
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• GARDEN TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $34 monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Two covered parking spaces (total 2 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Electricity connected (electric on property); Underground utilities; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Two stories; Under construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built recently / under construction
• Exterior features: Landscaped lot; Paved road access; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-227 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#255 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Long County Middle School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #311 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 945 students, 69% FRL); Long County High School (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #140 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 1,209 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 140 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $465 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $237,004 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.26%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $307,685
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
802 Buckhead Loop SE	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,065 (0%)	0mo	$296,375	$144	94
916 Buckhead Loop SE	0.18mi	4/2.5	2,065 (0%)	3mo	$306,210	$148	89
631 Buckhead Loop SE	0.14mi	4/3.0	1,984 (-4%)	1mo	$315,475	$159	84
283 Antler Ave SE	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,002 (-3%)	7mo	$300,265	$150	80
218 Antler Ave	0.26mi	4/3.0	1,984 (-4%)	6mo	$296,450	$149	75
1105 Buckhead Loop SE	0.15mi	4/2.5	2,254 (+9%)	6mo	$312,495	$139	73
382 Buckhead Loop SE	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,926 (-7%)	1mo	$310,875	$161	68
874 Buckhead Loop SE	0.18mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,256 (+9%)	2mo	$320,675	$142	68
200 Antler Ave SE	0.27mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,256 (+9%)	4mo	$308,875	$137	62
404 Buckhead Loop SE	0.38mi	4/2.5	1,810 (-12%)	1mo	$283,825	$157	61
334 Buckhead Loop SE	0.42mi	4/2.5	1,810 (-12%)	3mo	$284,025	$157	57
377 Buckhead Loop SE	0.38mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,256 (+9%)	4mo	$282,350	$125	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-20,985
• Equity at exit: $89,128

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $5,007
• Equity at exit: $109,014

Cash invested: $83,699 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31301

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,370 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,484/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$34
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $-227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,658

Max offer price $266,009

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,731
• Closing costs: $8,968
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2722 Arnall Dr Allenhurst, GA	5.0	3.0	2256	$2,600	$1.15	43d	1	0.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $34 · $408/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $298,925 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $298,925 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $298,925 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $298,925 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $298,925 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 693-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $298,925 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,440
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,744
• − Property taxes: −$4,484
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,275
• − Management: −$2,275
• − HOA: −$408
• − Depreciation: −$8,696
• Taxable loss: −$7,937
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,905
• After-tax cash flow: $-825/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long County
• NCES district ID: 1303360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,958
• Composite: 22.51/100
• National rank: #8090
• State rank: #115 of 174 in GA

Livability — Walthourville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #255
• US rank: #14108

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 58,565 people
• City population: 4,933
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 4,933
• Household income: $65,417
• Rent vs Own: 55.7% rent · 44.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 121.0

Population outlook (Long County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,669 people
• By 2030: 28,223 · +14.4%
• By 2040: 35,430 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 42,403 · +71.9%
• By 2075: 56,996 · +131.0%
• By 2100: 64,185 · +160.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% White 31% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Long

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.1% · R 64.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.16%
• Current HPI: 187.7716
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $298,925 HABR