22149 County Road 288 · Hermitage, MO 65724

$139,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 842 sqft · Other public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1972 0.80 ac lot $165/sqft · 8% below area Est $151k · 8% under $6/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cabin has been used as a vacation home, sitting on four lots, two of the lots 77 & 80 could be separated to sell. Existing water, electricity and septic system. There is not HVAC, only window units and wood heat. A perfect place to park a camper / RV. The cabin can be easily converted into a permeant residence.

Key facts

• Pomme de terre lake
• Fire pit area
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• POMME DE TERRE LAKE
• SCREENED-IN BACK PORCH
• FENCED BACKYARD
• FIRE PIT AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $70 (about $5.83/month)

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Subdivision: Riviera Pomme De Terre
• Construction: 842 above-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Screened patio/porch; Shed(s); County road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Electric oven; Free‑standing electric oven; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Wood heating; Baseboard heating; Attic fan; Has cooling
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Wood-burning fireplace in the living room; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-138 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (17.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $86k (38.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $86k (38.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.3% in Hermitage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#788 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hermitage R-IV (rural): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #185 of 535 in MO (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hermitage Elem. (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #347 of 1,115 statewide, top 35%, 138 students, 58% FRL); Hermitage Middle (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #243 of 391 statewide, top 65%, 50 students, 44% FRL); Hermitage High (math 10% / reading 50%, grade F, #377 of 521 statewide, top 73%, 81 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hickory County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $86,023 (38.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.24%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,735
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: -7.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $66,868
• Equity at exit: $125,222

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.23×
• Total profit: $203,654
• Equity at exit: $270,046

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65724

• Home prices YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $860 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $291/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $-138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,034

Max offer price $114,703

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-59	-5% $-98	+0% $-138	+5% $-335	+10% $-383
Rent	-10% $-205	-5% $-172	+0% $-138	+5% $-104	+10% $-70
Rate	-1.0pp $-68	-0.5pp $-102	base $-138	+0.5pp $-174	+1.0pp $-210

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $139,000 Pending 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $139,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $159,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    listed $159,000 Active 1156-char remark
18. 2023-09-25
    soldstatus Closed 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Cabin has been used as a vacation home, sitting on four lots, two of the lots 77 & 80 could be separated to sell. Existing water, electricity and septic system. There is not HVAC, only window units and wood heat. A perfect place to park a camper / RV. The cabin can be easily converted into a permeant residence.

19. 2023-09-22
    soldstatus
20. 2023-08-30
    status Pending 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Cabin has been used as a vacation home, sitting on four lots, two of the lots 77 & 80 could be separated to sell. Existing water, electricity and septic system. There is not HVAC, only window units and wood heat. A perfect place to park a camper / RV. The cabin can be easily converted into a permeant residence.

21. 2023-08-09
    historical 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Cabin has been used as a vacation home, sitting on four lots, two of the lots 77 & 80 could be separated to sell. Existing water, electricity and septic system. There is not HVAC, only window units and wood heat. A perfect place to park a camper / RV. The cabin can be easily converted into a permeant residence.

22. 2023-07-12
    status Pending 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Cabin has been used as a vacation home, sitting on four lots, two of the lots 77 & 80 could be separated to sell. Existing water, electricity and septic system. There is not HVAC, only window units and wood heat. A perfect place to park a camper / RV. The cabin can be easily converted into a permeant residence.

23. 2023-07-10
    listed $67,900 Active 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Cabin has been used as a vacation home, sitting on four lots, two of the lots 77 & 80 could be separated to sell. Existing water, electricity and septic system. There is not HVAC, only window units and wood heat. A perfect place to park a camper / RV. The cabin can be easily converted into a permeant residence.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $291 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,348 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,057/yr (+$88/mo · 362.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,323
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$291
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$826
• − Management: −$826
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$4,217
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,012
• After-tax cash flow: $-638/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hermitage R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2914310
• Math proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $30,066
• Composite: 40.92/100
• National rank: #7513
• State rank: #185 of 535 in MO

Livability — Hermitage

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #788
• US rank: #23974

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,728

Population outlook (Hickory County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,206 people
• By 2030: 7,690 · -6.3%
• By 2040: 6,780 · -17.4%
• By 2050: 6,076 · -26.0%
• By 2075: 5,088 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 4,489 · -45.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98%
• Common ancestry: Italian 17% Lithuanian 4% Iranian 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Hickory

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 19.1% · R 80.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.9pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+57.3 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+23.6 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.14%
• Current HPI: 216.4684
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+104.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $139,000 SOMO
• 2026-05-15 Listed $159,000 SOMO
• 2023-09-25 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2023-09-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-08-30 Pending — SOMO
• 2023-08-09 Delisted — SOMO
• 2023-07-12 Pending — SOMO
• 2023-07-10 Listed $67,900 SOMO

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $291 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.