8730 Thomas Dr Unit 1203 B · Lower Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$199,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Condo · 458 Days on market

Built 1985 Good condition $237/sqft · at area comps Est $208k · at est. $572/mo HOA · 37% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Cash flow +1.9/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

$26,000 PRICE REDUCTION! St. Thomas Square 1203B is close to everything you'd want in a condo. A short stroll to the ''Most Beautiful Beaches in the World'', with restaurants, shopping and entertainment so close you can leave your car at home! St. Thomas Square offers a gated and fenced community, with two tennis courts, large pool and sun deck, steam/sauna room, shuffleboard, community room, grills and a boat dock for Boaters! Complex is 3.5 miles to the Gulf by Boat. Come see this gem today!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Large pool
• Steam sauna room

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• TWO TENNIS COURTS
• LARGE POOL
• SUN DECK
• STEAM SAUNA ROOM
• SHUFFLEBOARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $199k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $30k (84.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $30k (84.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 1.8% vs local median 0.9% in Lower Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#518 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Breakfast Point Academy (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #690 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 1,058 students, 47% FRL); J.R. Arnold High School (math 41% / reading 54%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,617 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1176 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 458 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 37% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,417 (84.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 458 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 85% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.90%
• DSCR: 0.29
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $207,854
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -4.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8743 Thomas Dr #225	0.33mi	1/1.5	740 (-12%)	0mo	$295,000	$399	62
8743 Thomas Dr #1108	0.33mi	1/1.5	740 (-12%)	1mo	$352,000	$476	62
8743 Thomas Dr #321	0.33mi	1/1.5	740 (-12%)	1mo	$268,000	$362	62
8743 Thomas Dr #816	0.33mi	1/1.5	740 (-12%)	1mo	$325,000	$439	62
1219 Thomas Dr #289	1.49mi	1/2.0	833 (-1%)	1mo	$220,000	$264	58
9900 S Thomas Dr #2008	1.16mi	1/2.0	864 (+3%)	0mo	$284,900	$330	56
8815 Thomas Dr #105	0.45mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,048 (+25%)	0mo	$285,000	$272	45
9900 S Thomas Dr #915	1.16mi	2/2.0 (+1)	907 (+8%)	1mo	$346,000	$381	42
9900 S Thomas Dr Unit 2311	1.16mi	2/2.0 (+1)	907 (+8%)	1mo	$310,000	$342	42
1219 Thomas Dr #119	1.49mi	2/2.0 (+1)	922 (+10%)	1mo	$225,000	$244	39
9860 S Thomas Dr. Dr #614	1.01mi	1/2.0	1,047 (+25%)	0mo	$265,000	$253	36
9860 S Thomas Dr #615	1.01mi	1/2.0	1,047 (+25%)	0mo	$220,000	$210	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -72.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.91×
• Total profit: $-106,501
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -2.38×
• Total profit: $-188,504
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active · 2 under contract
• Median asking: $432,000 ($411/sqft)
• Median days on market: 53 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -39.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1176
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,530 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$572
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $-1,165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,005

Max offer price $30,417

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,028	-5% $-1,096	+0% $-1,165	+5% $-1,234	+10% $-1,303
Rent	-10% $-1,286	-5% $-1,225	+0% $-1,165	+5% $-1,105	+10% $-1,044
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,065	-0.5pp $-1,114	base $-1,165	+0.5pp $-1,217	+1.0pp $-1,269

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8730 Thomas Dr Unit 1355041P Panama City Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	839	$1,373	$1.64	70d	1	0.05mi
2521 Allison Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,450	$1.48	70d	1	0.42mi
2526 Laurie Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,750	$1.84	62d	1	0.66mi
2301 Anne Ave Unit 8901 Laird Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,625	$1.81	62d	1	0.67mi
2216 Anne Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	951	$1,300	$1.37	62d	1	0.71mi
8604 Whelch Dr Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1087	$1,550	$1.43	62d	18	0.99mi
9850 S Thomas Dr Unit 1 Panama City Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$2,750	$3.93	70d	1	1.02mi
9850 S Thomas Dr Unit 1355022P Panama City Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	602	$1,639	$2.72	62d	1	1.02mi
7205 Thomas Dr Unit 1354970P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1044	$3,227	$3.09	70d	1	1.11mi
7813 N Lagoon Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,900	$1.79	70d	1	1.15mi
447 Water Oak Cir Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,800	$1.84	70d	1	1.20mi
998 Gulfside Ct Unit 1523366P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1065	$4,124	$3.87	62d	1	1.22mi
8551 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,399	$1.45	62d	12	1.33mi
2340 Grand Oaks Ln Unit 1523381P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1001	$4,240	$4.24	62d	1	1.33mi
204 Potters Bluff Dr Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1035	$1,355	$1.31	62d	12	1.34mi
2195 Wilkinson St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,526	$1.50	62d	41	1.38mi

HOA detail $572/mo · $6,864/yr condo

• Likely covers: poolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 458 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 457 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $199,000 Active 456 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $199,000 Active 455 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $199,000 Active 454 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $199,000 Active 453 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $199,000 Active 450 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $199,000 Active 449 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $199,000 Active 448 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $199,000 Active 446 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $199,000 Active 444 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $199,000 Active 442 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $199,000 Active 441 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $199,000 Active 440 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $199,000 Active 437 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $199,000 Active 435 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $199,000 Active 434 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $199,000 Active 433 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $199,000 Active 432 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $199,000 Active 431 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $199,000 Active 430 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $199,000 Active 429 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $199,000 Active 428 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 427 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 426 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $199,000 Active 425 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 424 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 423 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 422 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 421 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 420 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 419 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $199,000 Active 418 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $199,000 Active 417 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $199,000 Active 416 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $199,000 Active 415 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $199,000 Active 413 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $199,000 Active 411 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $199,000 Active 410 DOM
40. 2026-06-19
    days on market $199,000 Active 408 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $199,000 Active 407 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $199,000 Active 406 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $199,000 Active 405 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $199,000 Active 404 DOM
45. 2026-06-14
    days on market $199,000 Active 402 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $199,000 Active 401 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $199,000 Active 399 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,000 Active 398 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 397 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 396 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,361
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$6,114
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,469
• − Management: −$1,469
• − HOA: −$6,864
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$17,476
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,194
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,786/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,200–$12,600 screening

This well-maintained and updated condo is in good condition with a good curb appeal, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and can prevent water damage, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Breakfast Point Academy B- FL #690/2,144 Nat'l #7,252/41,679 High J.r. Arnold High School D FL #204/667 Nat'l #6,282/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Lower Grand Lagoon

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #518
• US rank: #9567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lower Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 206,264 people
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-20.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $199,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-05-07 Listed $225,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-04-26 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2024-05-07 Listed $250,000 CPARMLS