9837 Trellis Vine Way · Ruskin, FL 34219

$442,340

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,262 sqft · Land · 39 Days on market

Built 2026 5,411 sqft lot $74/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Pulte is selling in Oakfield Trails! Located just 3 miles from I-75, discover an elevated lifestyle within a vibrant community, where modern design meets hometown hospitality, and the timeless charm of Florida takes center stage. Residents of Oakfield Trails will enjoy access to the Harvest Social Club in including a Fitness Center, Pool with slide Tower, gathering spaces, restaurant and much more. The Pinecrest is designed with flexibility in mind, offering open living spaces and a versatile loft that’s perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Its thoughtful design adapts easily to your lifestyle. The gourmet kitchen showcases a large center island with sink, burlap

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Large center island
• Spacious pantry

Tags

• POOL WITH SLIDE TOWER
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• BURLAP CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SPACIOUS PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: PD-R
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $1,993; Total annual fees: $889.56; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by FirstService Residential (monthly HOA ~$74.13; quarterly association fee $222.39); Association approval required; Street lights in community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached garage with garage door opener; 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence, under construction; Two stories; Builder model: PINECREST; Faces southwest; Projected completion in 2026
• Construction: Block, stucco and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction by Pulte Home Company, LLC (Builder license CBC1262018)
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Sliding doors; Hurricane shutters; Sidewalks; Landscaped lot; Paved driveway and roads

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; In-wall pest / pest guard system; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on upper level; Washer and dryer included; Gas water heater; Irrigation equipment

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $442k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-414 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $369k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $311k (29.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $311k (29.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbara A Harvey Elementary School (math 74% / reading 59%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 1,069 students, 33% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2204 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($429k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $311,020 (29.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.01%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-107,207
• Equity at exit: $65,954

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-162,779
• Equity at exit: $38,245

Cash invested: $123,855 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2204
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,110 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,320
• Tax from tax record: −$293 /mo · $3,513/yr
• Insurance: −$184
• HOA: −$74
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$653
• Net cashflow: $-414

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,634

Max offer price $369,264

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-163	-5% $-288	+0% $-414	+5% $-539	+10% $-664
Rent	-10% $-659	-5% $-537	+0% $-414	+5% $-291	+10% $-168
Rate	-1.0pp $-191	-0.5pp $-301	base $-414	+0.5pp $-528	+1.0pp $-645

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,585
• Closing costs: $13,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10455 Wet Marsh Cv Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,650	$1.62	13d	1	0.50mi
9962 Last Light Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,495	$1.43	6d	1	0.59mi
9009 Moccasin Wallow Rd Parrish, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1581	$2,304	$1.46	0d	25	0.63mi
9544 Sandy Bluffs Cir Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2557	$2,950	$1.15	6d	1	0.68mi
10225 Daybreak Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	1978	$2,600	$1.31	6d	1	0.89mi
8541 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2389	$2,800	$1.17	13d	1	0.94mi
8505 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,750	$1.47	18d	1	0.99mi
9276 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2466	$4,250	$1.72	26d	1	1.02mi
9432 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,699	$1.32	18d	1	1.02mi
9224 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1799	$2,290	$1.27	26d	1	1.07mi
9207 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,275	$1.37	26d	1	1.09mi
8614 Mercator Ct Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2910	$3,300	$1.13	26d	1	1.15mi
8326 Abalone Loop Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2711	$3,650	$1.35	6d	1	1.30mi
8330 Abalone Loop Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	2473	$2,900	$1.17	18d	1	1.30mi
9262 Gulf Haven Dr Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	2043	$2,750	$1.35	17d	1	1.30mi
11628 Moonsail Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	2144	$3,500	$1.63	24d	1	1.33mi
11454 Gallatin Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1635	$2,575	$1.57	18d	1	1.35mi
11512 Gallatin Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1929	$3,300	$1.71	26d	1	1.38mi
11612 Armada Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	2112	$3,400	$1.61	22d	1	1.38mi
8031 111th Ter E Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	3067	$4,150	$1.35	26d	1	1.39mi
7566 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1807	$2,700	$1.49	24d	1	1.42mi
11230 82nd St E Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1758	$2,495	$1.42	18d	1	1.43mi
10749 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,549	$1.04	26d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $74 · $888/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-20
   listed $442,340 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,513 · $293/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,671 · $306/mo
• Expected delta: +$159/yr (+$13/mo · 4.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,322
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,778
• − Property taxes: −$3,513
• − Insurance: −$2,212
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,986
• − Management: −$2,986
• − HOA: −$888
• − Depreciation: −$12,868
• Taxable loss: −$12,908
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,098
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,866/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Listed $442,340 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid