150 Hearne Ln · Red Oak, TX 75154

$239,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2002 0.81 ac lot Est $294k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wide Open spaces are all yours with this 4 BR, 2 bath home Features include Island in Spacious Kitchen with builtin desk with ample Cabinet & Counter space * Roomy Master Bath with Double Sink, Garden Tub, Separate Shower * enjoy the Wood Burning Fireplace Full Sized Guest Bath too Buyer to verify all information contained herein prior to closing. No BLIND OFFERS *

Key facts

• Custom wood decks
• Brand new roof
• New flooring

Tags

• CUSTOM WOOD DECKS
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW APPLIANCES
• BRAND NEW ROOF
• CONCRETE DRIVEWAY
• SEPARATE LIVING AREAS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.81 acre (150 x 228 x 150 x 234); Deed restrictions apply; Possession at closing/funding
• Financial info: Financing accepted: Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA Loan, VA Loan
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Open concrete parking
• Utilities: Aerobic septic; Co-op water with individual water meter; Electricity available and connected; Asphalt access; Located outside city limits
• Home design: Single-story mobile home (residential); One level; Preowned (built in 2002)
• Construction: Siding exterior; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Year built 2002
• Exterior features: Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom with ensuite bath, garden tub, separate shower, dual sinks and walk-in closet; Other bedrooms feature split-bedroom layout; one bedroom includes a walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Fireplace provides supplemental heat; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Open floorplan with vaulted ceilings; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $311 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $240k).
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.9% in Red Oak — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#435 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Ferris ISD (rural): math 28% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #634 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hazel Ingram El (322 students, 88% FRL); Ferris J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 590 students, 79% FRL); Ferris H S (math 22% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,096 of 1,632 statewide, top 68%, 821 students, 76% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 578 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.55%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $294,336
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3144 Shady Creek Cir	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,160 (+7%)	1mo	$270,000	$125	65
224 Hearne Ln	0.27mi	4/3.0	1,920 (-5%)	19mo	$297,500	$155	59
236 Hearne Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,920 (-5%)	23mo	$279,900	$146	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-19,067
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $8,950
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75154

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 578
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,503 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$308 /mo · $3,702/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,110

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $447	-5% $379	+0% $311	+5% $243	+10% $175
Rent	-10% $113	-5% $212	+0% $311	+5% $410	+10% $508
Rate	-1.0pp $432	-0.5pp $372	base $311	+0.5pp $249	+1.0pp $185

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $239,900 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,900 Active Option Contract 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,900 Active Option Contract 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $239,900 Active Option Contract 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-08
   listed $239,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,702 · $308/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,390 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: +$688/yr (+$57/mo · 18.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,034
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$3,702
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,403
• − Management: −$2,403
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$90
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$22
• After-tax cash flow: $3,750/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferris ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819170
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $53,468
• Composite: 25.3/100
• National rank: #7486
• State rank: #634 of 826 in TX

Livability — Red Oak

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #435
• US rank: #8931

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ellis County · 199,237 people
• City population: 52,516
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,516
• Household income: $100,388
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1081.0

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 12% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.06%
• Current HPI: 294.5836
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.99%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+399.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $239,900 NTREIS
• 2015-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-05-26 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2015-05-12 Pending — NTREIS
• 2015-05-12 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2015-04-24 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2015-04-13 Pending — NTREIS
• 2015-04-10 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2015-04-06 Listed $48,000 NTREIS
• 2002-08-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,702 · +14.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.