810 Adams Dr · Killdeer, ND 58640

$209,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,852 sqft · Other · 124 Days on market

Built 2012 3,432 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0

Key facts

• Built 2012
• Listed 123 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential townhouse
• Construction: Finished basement
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 26 x 132; Zoned RMD

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Window coverings; Finished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-125 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (28.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#13 in ND, #3,337 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Killdeer 16 (rural): math 32% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #31 of 53 in ND (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Killdeer Elementary School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #152 of 236 statewide, top 68%, 396 students, 22% FRL); Killdeer High School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #71 of 144 statewide, top 52%, 250 students, 22% FRL).
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Dunn County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Dunn County population projected at +106% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $150,048 (28.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.56%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $15,584
• Equity at exit: $92,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $68,679
• Equity at exit: $141,362

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58640

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,469/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,659

Max offer price $187,783

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-6	-5% $-66	+0% $-125	+5% $-185	+10% $-244
Rent	-10% $-244	-5% $-184	+0% $-125	+5% $-66	+10% $-7
Rate	-1.0pp $-19	-0.5pp $-72	base $-125	+0.5pp $-180	+1.0pp $-235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $209,900 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $209,900 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,900 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,900 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,900 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $209,900 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $209,900 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,900 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $209,900 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $209,900 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,900 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,900 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,900 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $209,900 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-02-18
    listed $209,900 Active
17. 2023-07-25
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,469 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,057 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$588/yr (+$49/mo · 40.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,006
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$1,469
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$5,257
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,262
• After-tax cash flow: $-241/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Killdeer 16
• NCES district ID: 3810270
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $64,263
• Composite: 33.34/100
• National rank: #5495
• State rank: #31 of 53 in ND

Livability — Killdeer

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #13
• US rank: #3337

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Killdeer, ND
• Population (ZIP): 1,324

Population outlook (Dunn County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,779 people
• By 2030: 8,039 · +18.6%
• By 2040: 10,863 · +60.2%
• By 2050: 13,981 · +106.2%
• By 2075: 22,779 · +236.0%
• By 2100: 30,687 · +352.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Native American 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dunn

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.2) · D 14.9% · R 84.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.6pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -69.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.2 2020: R+68.8 2016: R+63.5 2012: R+50.0 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.85%
• Current HPI: 129.7711
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Listed $209,900 Badlands BOR MLS
• 2023-07-25 Rental Removed — APPFOLIO