609 E 5th St · Rock Falls, IL 61071

$109,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 1954 8,712 sqft lot Est $171k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This Rock Falls home features a sound, leak-free roof. Inside, the main floor showcases a blend of durable LVP and tile in the kitchen, transitioning to hardwood upstairs. The functional kitchen comes equipped with laminate countertops and sturdy original cabinetry, offering a blank canvas ready for your custom appliance choices. A solid concrete basement anchors the property. Ready for your personalized cosmetic updates

Key facts

• Tile in kitchen
• Hardwood upstairs
• Durable lvp

Tags

• DURABLE LVP
• TILE IN KITCHEN
• HARDWOOD UPSTAIRS
• LAMINATE COUNTERTOPS
• ORIGINAL CABINETRY
• SOLID CONCRETE BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $184 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 5.0% in Rock Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#607 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rock Falls Twp Hsd 301 (town): math 10% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #726 of 919 in IL (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Rock Falls Township High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #218 of 693 statewide, top 35%, 566 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Whiteside County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Whiteside County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $110k implies a 101% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $108,251 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.18%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $171,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
304 E 5th St	0.30mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,557 (+4%)	1mo	$99,900	$64	72
412 E 5th St	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (-3%)	12mo	$175,000	$121	70
910 Wiker Dr	0.55mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,527 (+2%)	5mo	$195,000	$128	60
600 E 7th St	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,288 (-14%)	12mo	$170,000	$132	53
504 E 8th St	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,325 (-12%)	12mo	$115,000	$87	50
908 Wiker Dr	0.53mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,594 (+6%)	9mo	$169,900	$107	48
306 E 9th St	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,344 (-10%)	10mo	$155,000	$115	45
800 A Ave	0.44mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,320 (-12%)	8mo	$80,000	$61	44
905 Wiker Dr	0.53mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,320 (-12%)	6mo	$165,000	$125	43
407 2nd Ave	0.49mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,287 (-14%)	5mo	$83,000	$64	42
906 Wiker Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (+13%)	8mo	$194,000	$114	42
411 4th Ave	0.60mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,277 (-15%)	12mo	$128,000	$100	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-5,989
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $10,251
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61071

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,336 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,991/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $184

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,103

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $246	-5% $215	+0% $184	+5% $153	+10% $122
Rent	-10% $79	-5% $131	+0% $184	+5% $237	+10% $290
Rate	-1.0pp $240	-0.5pp $212	base $184	+0.5pp $156	+1.0pp $127

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,900 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,900 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,900 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $109,900 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,900 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $109,900 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $109,900 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,900 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,900 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-28
    listed $109,900 Active
15. 2012-06-21
    soldstatus $54,666

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,991 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,991 · $249/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,033
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$2,991
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,283
• − Management: −$1,283
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $575
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$138
• After-tax cash flow: $2,072/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rock Falls Twp Hsd 301
• NCES district ID: 1734380
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,851
• Composite: 19.86/100
• National rank: #13891
• State rank: #726 of 919 in IL

Livability — Rock Falls

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #607
• US rank: #12541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A Health & safety B User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rock Falls, IL
• Population (ZIP): 13,482

Population outlook (Whiteside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,736 people
• By 2030: 51,657 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 47,169 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 42,613 · -20.7%
• By 2075: 32,691 · -39.2%
• By 2100: 22,638 · -57.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Whiteside

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 41.7% · R 56.4% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.6pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+8.3 2016: R+6.3 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.37%
• Current HPI: 142.0179
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+101.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $109,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $54,666 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,991 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.