Cedar Plan · Ave Maria, FL 34142

$385,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,662 sqft · SingleFamily · 181 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

The Cedar boasts a long welcoming foyer leading you into your open concept living area. Enjoy indoor/outdoor living at its finest with your covered lanai right off your gathering room. Or escape to your owner's suite with a spacious walk-in closet. This single-story home is perfect for small or growing families.

Key facts

• Gathering room
• Welcoming foyer
• Covered lanai

Tags

• WELCOMING FOYER
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• COVERED LANAI
• GATHERING ROOM
• OWNER'S SUITE
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price $385,990; New construction inventory: Plan

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-story plan home
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,662; Address: Ave Maria, FL (4649 Valiant Ln)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (Cedar); Active listing

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $386k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $533 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $386k).
• Recommended offer: $340k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 449 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,052/mo this rent would consume 78% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1093% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $108k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $339,671 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.92%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.05% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $3,927
• Equity at exit: $92,281

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $77,153
• Equity at exit: $96,143

Cash invested: $108,077 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34142

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 449
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,052 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,024
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$482 /mo · $5,790/yr
• Insurance: −$161
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$851
• Net cashflow: $533

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,377

Max offer price $385,990

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,498
• Closing costs: $11,580
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4546 Battlecreek Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2104	$3,900	$1.85	23d	1	0.35mi
5032 Arancia Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1525	$2,595	$1.70	14d	1	0.57mi
4390 Battlecreek Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	2.5	2060	$3,295	$1.60	23d	1	0.74mi
5068 Annunciation Cir #4201 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1266	$3,400	$2.69	23d	1	0.75mi
4881 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2037	$2,800	$1.37	10d	1	0.75mi
5076 Annunciation Cir #2206 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1206	$3,100	$2.57	23d	1	0.80mi
5076 Annunciation Cir #2305 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1166	$2,800	$2.40	23d	1	0.80mi
5080 Annunciation Cir #1306 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$4,500	$2.65	23d	1	0.85mi
4925 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1525	$4,000	$2.62	23d	1	0.85mi
4957 Gambero Way Unit 4957 Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	1500	$3,400	$2.27	11d	1	0.93mi
5265 Messina St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1929	$4,995	$2.59	23d	1	1.01mi
5089 Penella Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2028	$2,300	$1.13	14d	1	1.06mi
5187 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1680	$2,700	$1.61	21d	1	1.14mi
5322 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	1918	$2,700	$1.41	14d	1	1.18mi
5376 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$6,850	$3.70	21d	1	1.22mi
5374 Ferris Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1933	$2,350	$1.22	23d	1	1.26mi
5522 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$3,995	$2.16	23d	1	1.26mi
5538 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$6,295	$2.80	21d	1	1.30mi
5545 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$8,500	$3.78	23d	1	1.30mi
5412 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$8,000	$3.56	21d	1	1.31mi
5538 Useppa Dr Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$10,995	$5.94	23d	1	1.35mi
5661 Melbourne Ct #8011 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	11d	1	1.36mi
5428 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$7,895	$3.51	21d	1	1.36mi
5435 Pikewood Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$3,695	$2.00	21d	1	1.38mi
5667 Melbourne Ct #7812 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$6,250	$3.59	11d	1	1.38mi
5360 Brin Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	2.5	1088	$2,495	$2.29	23d	1	1.39mi
5444 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$3,995	$1.78	21d	1	1.40mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1239	$2,495	$2.01	23d	1	1.40mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir #4135 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,195	$1.96	23d	1	1.41mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir Unit 4143 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$5,795	$5.17	23d	1	1.41mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir Unit 4118 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$4,700	$3.61	23d	1	1.41mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir #4137 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$5,795	$5.02	21d	1	1.41mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2826 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$6,495	$4.14	23d	1	1.41mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2815 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,700	$1.93	23d	1	1.41mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2825 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$6,295	$4.65	23d	1	1.41mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2822 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$5,795	$4.28	23d	1	1.41mi
5445 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,995	$2.21	23d	1	1.41mi
5674 Melbourne Ct Unit 7721 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$7,295	$3.46	11d	1	1.41mi
5445 Double Eagle Cir #3026 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$2,350	$1.50	21d	1	1.42mi
5445 Double Eagle Cir #3013 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$2,595	$1.90	21d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $385,990 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $385,990 Active 180 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $385,990 Active 179 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $385,990 Active 178 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $385,990 Active 173 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $385,990 Active 172 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $385,990 Active 171 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $385,990 Active 170 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $385,990 Active 165 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $385,990 Active 164 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $385,990 Active 163 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $385,990 Active 162 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,621
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,621
• − Property taxes: −$5,790
• − Insurance: −$1,930
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,890
• − Management: −$3,890
• − Depreciation: −$11,229
• Taxable income: $271
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$65
• After-tax cash flow: $6,335/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ave Maria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ave Maria, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,149
• Household income: $62,333
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1093.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 39% Black 19% White 16% Native American 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Current HPI: 226.9105
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B