28-A Oak Knoll Est · Elizabethtown, PA 17022

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2016

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Oaknoll Estates in Elizabethtown. This 2016 champion Redman has over 1700 ft. ² with three bedrooms and two large bathrooms! This home has tons of storage and feels very open with 9ft ceilings and is very inviting. The seller is going to include refrigerator, stove , washer , dryer, house generator and dishwasher. The home has a propane heat and gas oven along with central air. The sellers are including all furnishings minus personal items with the sale of the home. This includes the shed with electric. There is an oversized stone driveway that can fit up to three cars along with additional street parking. This is a smart home with security cameras and equipment including in the sale just need a wi- fi service. The propane tank is owned so you can shop rates to save you costs. Lot rent is 575 a month and includes water, sewer, and snow removal. All applicants must be approved and adhere to the pet guidelines.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Two spacious decks
• Double lot

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• TWO SEPARATE LIVING ROOM AREAS
• DOUBLE LOT
• TWO SPACIOUS DECKS
• ATTRACTIVE LANDSCAPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade finished area recorded by assessor
• Financial info: Ownership includes ground rent; Property manager present
• HOA & community: Ground rent $553 per month

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking; Driveway
• Utilities: Central air conditioning (electric); Propane for heating and hot water; Community water; Community septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Frame construction; Excellent condition
• Construction: Frame construction; Manufactured structure; Double wide (Champion)
• Exterior features: Located in Oak Knoll Estates; Not in a federal flood zone; Community septic system; Community water service; Monthly ground rent

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump(s); Propane-fired hot water
• Interior features: Accessible doors that swing inward; Main-level ramp for accessibility; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $518 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 2.8% in Elizabethtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#201 in PA, #1,759 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Lower Dauphin SD (suburban): math 45% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #130 of 539 in PA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Londonderry El Sch (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #737 of 1,518 statewide, top 52%, 222 students, 42% FRL); Lower Dauphin Ms (math 28% / reading 53%, grade F, #248 of 512 statewide, top 50%, 883 students, 27% FRL); Lower Dauphin Hs (math 82%, 1,085 students, 22% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.5% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.45%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $17,412
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.26×
• Total profit: $85,377
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17022

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,721 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $921/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $518

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,065

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $595	-5% $556	+0% $518	+5% $480	+10% $442
Rent	-10% $382	-5% $450	+0% $518	+5% $586	+10% $654
Rate	-1.0pp $586	-0.5pp $553	base $518	+0.5pp $483	+1.0pp $448

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $135,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $135,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $921 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,527 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: +$606/yr (+$50/mo · 65.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,647
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$921
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,652
• − Management: −$1,652
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $4,258
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,022
• After-tax cash flow: $5,197/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lower Dauphin SD
• NCES district ID: 4214100
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $67,760
• Composite: 46.09/100
• National rank: #2513
• State rank: #130 of 539 in PA

Livability — Elizabethtown

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #201
• US rank: #1759

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lancaster County · 390,309 people
• City population: 31,908
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• Population (ZIP): 31,908
• Household income: $86,767
• Rent vs Own: 31.8% rent · 68.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1404.0

Population outlook (Dauphin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 281,628 people
• By 2030: 283,549 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 285,385 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 286,188 · +1.6%
• By 2075: 291,053 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 282,374 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dauphin

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: 9.1pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+8.5 2016: D+2.8 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+9.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.73%
• Current HPI: 266.3184
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.52%
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+227.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $135,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-11-08 Sold (MLS) $100,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-10-19 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-10-07 Price Changed $118,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-09-25 Price Changed $128,998 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-09-02 Price Changed $128,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-07-29 Listed $129,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1991-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $41,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $921 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.