104 Badger Ln Lot 1411 · Gold Key Lake, PA 18458

$69,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · Manufactured · 408 Days on market

Built 2008 Fair condition 5,227 sqft lot $172/sqft · 34% above area Est $52k · 34% over $159/mo HOA · 13% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this 2008 beautiful park model with full sized deck in Trails End! Light and airy with huge windows, allowing a great amount of natural light in your home away from home. Featuring high ceilings, a double loft, and a very different layout for the kitchen/living room. Outside deck includes the grill and furniture, allowing you to enjoy the great outdoors! Property has a fire pit, graveled driveway and shed.

Key facts

• Double loft
• Full sized deck
• Outside deck

Tags

• FULL SIZED DECK
• DOUBLE LOFT
• KITCHEN LIVING ROOM LAYOUT
• OUTSIDE DECK
• FIRE PIT
• GRAVELED DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $69k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $356 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 5.9% in Gold Key Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#789 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($477 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 408 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $60,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 408 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.12%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $51,671
• List price: $69,000
• Delta: 33.54%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
173 Shohola Ln Ln	0.20mi	1/1.0	420 (+5%)	24mo	$56,500	$135	62
149 Arapajo Dr	0.30mi	2/1.0 (+1)	400 (0%)	23mo	$76,000	$190	62
111 Owego Ln Unit Owego Lane	0.46mi	1/1.0	420 (+5%)	22mo	$64,500	$154	52
3911 Aztec Dr	0.55mi	2/1.0 (+1)	375 (-6%)	24mo	$53,000	$141	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.12×
• Total profit: $60,373
• Equity at exit: $62,161

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.3%
• Equity multiple: 9.29×
• Total profit: $160,188
• Equity at exit: $134,052

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18458

• Home prices YoY: 13.2%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,256 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$86 /mo · $1,035/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$159
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $356

Break-even live

Break-even rent $805

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $159 · $1,908/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,000 Active 408 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,000 Active 407 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,000 Active 406 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,000 Active 405 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,000 Active 403 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,000 Active 402 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,000 Active 399 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,000 Active 398 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,000 Active 397 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $69,000 Active 394 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,000 Active 393 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,000 Active 392 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,000 Active 391 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,000 Active 390 DOM
15. 2025-08-05
    price $69,000 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    Welcome to this 2008 beautiful park model with full sized deck in Trails End! Light and airy with huge windows, allowing a great amount of natural light in your home away from home. Featuring high ceilings, a double loft, and a very different layout for the kitchen/living room. Outside deck includes the grill and furniture, allowing you to enjoy the great outdoors! Property has a fire pit, graveled driveway and shed.

16. 2025-05-06
    listed $80,000 Active 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    Welcome to this 2008 beautiful park model with full sized deck in Trails End! Light and airy with huge windows, allowing a great amount of natural light in your home away from home. Featuring high ceilings, a double loft, and a very different layout for the kitchen/living room. Outside deck includes the grill and furniture, allowing you to enjoy the great outdoors! Property has a fire pit, graveled driveway and shed.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,067
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$1,035
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,205
• − Management: −$1,205
• − HOA: −$1,908
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $3,496
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$839
• After-tax cash flow: $3,434/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2008 park model has a fair condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Light wear and tear
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Aesthetic update needed
• Minor Exterior siding — Slight wear

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Resale Replace worn flooring — New flooring improves the home's appearance and functionality.
• Resale Update kitchen cabinets — Fresh cabinets can significantly improve the home's value.
• Resale Replace worn exterior siding — Fresh siding enhances the home's curb appeal and value.
• Rental Clean and maintain HVAC unit — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and reduces energy costs.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Light wear and tear	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Aesthetic update needed	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior siding · Slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Resale Replace worn flooring — New flooring improves the home's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Resale Update kitchen cabinets — Fresh cabinets can significantly improve the home's value. ↑
• Resale Replace worn exterior siding — Fresh siding enhances the home's curb appeal and value. ↑
• Rental Clean and maintain HVAC unit — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and reduces energy costs. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Gold Key Lake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #789
• US rank: #7969

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,576

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 31.80%
• Current HPI: 272.6294
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-13.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $69,000 PWMLS
• 2025-05-06 Listed $80,000 PWMLS