16225 N Cave Creek Rd #1 · Phoenix, AZ 85032

$9,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 215 Days on market

Built 1970 $12/sqft · 77% below area ↓ 57% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2 bed, 2 bath home in the gated 55+ community of Villa Carmel! This well-maintained property offers low-maintenance landscaping, covered carport parking, & 2 convenient storage sheds. Recent updates include new interior paint, flooring in the kitchen & living room, & updated lighting. All appliances are included, making this home truly move-in ready. Inside, enjoy comfortable dining & living areas, a well-appointed kitchen with everything needed for everyday cooking, & cozy bedrooms that provide restful retreat spaces. The home also features a lovely screened-in patio, perfect for relaxing year-round. Residents enjoy access to desirable community amenities, including a hot tub, refreshing pool. Don't miss this wonderful opportunity! Clubhouse has Fun Events: Bingo, Dinners, Texas Holdem, Coffee & Donuts and Special Holiday Events! 10 minute drive to Desert Ridge, Paradise Valley Mall w/tons of restaurants & shopping. Quick drive to the freeway for easy access to the airport and around the Valley.

Key facts

• Gated community
• New flooring
• Storage shed

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• LOW MAINTENANCE LANDSCAPING
• COVERED CARPORT PARKING
• STORAGE SHED
• NEW INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $10k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $875 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $10k).
• Recommended offer: $9k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 112.3% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $68 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $297 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 215 days — a 12% lower offer ($9k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $8,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 215 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 12.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 112.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 378.62%
• DSCR: 17.85
• GRM: 0.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $43,624
• List price: $9,900
• Delta: -77.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16225 N Cave Creek Rd #32	0.11mi	2/2.0	840 (+5%)	22mo	$79,900	$95	68
2618 E Sandra Ter	0.13mi	3/1.5 (+1)	820 (+2%)	21mo	$170,000	$207	66
16225 N Cave Creek Rd #106	0.11mi	2/1.0	720 (-10%)	12mo	$25,000	$35	64
16225 N Cave Creek Rd #9	0.11mi	2/1.0	720 (-10%)	19mo	$9,000	$13	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.26×
• Total profit: $50,621
• Equity at exit: $1,476

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 37.93×
• Total profit: $102,362
• Equity at exit: $856

Cash invested: $2,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85032

• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 0.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,194 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$52
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$12 /mo · $148/yr
• Insurance: −$4
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $875

Break-even live

Break-even rent $87

Max offer price $9,900

Occupancy floor 22%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $2,475
• Closing costs: $297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16033 N 25th St Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,350	$1.29	8d	1	0.12mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$942	$1.35	22d	1	0.15mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	575	$942	$1.64	4d	6	0.15mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$1,159	$1.66	24d	1	0.15mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Unit 312 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$856	$1.56	22d	1	0.15mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Unit 107 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$829	$1.18	24d	1	0.15mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Unit 112 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$856	$1.56	24d	1	0.15mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Apt 310 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$942	$1.35	24d	1	0.15mi
2616 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 2624-2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	825	$1,095	$1.33	24d	1	0.18mi
2616 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 2624-4 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	825	$999	$1.21	5d	1	0.18mi
16621 N 25th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	570	$899	$1.58	8d	1	0.25mi
16437 N 31st St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	687	$1,049	$1.53	2d	4	0.25mi
16627 N 25th St Unit 23 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	765	$1,145	$1.50	24d	1	0.30mi
2432 E Tracy Ln Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,375	$1.38	18d	1	0.31mi
16801 N 26th St Apt 17 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,195	$1.49	24d	1	0.35mi
2802 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	929	$950	$1.02	24d	1	0.37mi
2807 E Paradise Ln Unit 103 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1124	$1,475	$1.31	24d	1	0.37mi
2807 E Le Marche Ave Apt 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	884	$995	$1.13	24d	1	0.37mi
2807 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$865	$0.96	24d	1	0.39mi
2826 E Le Marche Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	725	$1,000	$1.38	5d	1	0.41mi
2819 E Marconi Ave Unit 201 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$950	$1.06	24d	1	0.42mi
15651 N 27th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	878	$1,300	$1.48	24d	1	0.42mi
2826 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	929	$1,295	$1.39	17d	1	0.42mi
2826 E Monte Cristo Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	929	$1,295	$1.39	15d	1	0.42mi
2814 E Kathleen Rd #102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	24d	1	0.43mi
15601 N 27th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	894	$1,422	$1.59	5d	2	0.45mi
2838 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	780	$1,200	$1.54	8d	1	0.45mi
2822 E Kathleen Rd Unit 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	850	$1,100	$1.29	5d	1	0.46mi
2821 E Kathleen Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1106	$900	$0.81	24d	1	0.46mi
2821 E Kathleen Rd Unit 101 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1106	$900	$0.81	24d	1	0.46mi
2844 E Marconi Ave Unit 101 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1123	$1,550	$1.38	22d	1	0.47mi
2837 E Marconi Ave Unit 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	900	$975	$1.08	24d	1	0.48mi
2837 E Marconi Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	24d	1	0.48mi
15425 N 25th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	677	$1,149	$1.70	8d	5	0.48mi
15601 N 27th St #18 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	888	$1,495	$1.68	14d	1	0.48mi
2718 E Beck Ln Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	950	$1,295	$1.36	24d	1	0.49mi
2846 E Kathleen Rd Unit 103 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1106	$949	$0.86	24d	1	0.50mi
2846 E Kathleen Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1106	$949	$0.86	24d	1	0.50mi
2726 E Beck Ln Unit 03 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	916	$1,295	$1.41	24d	1	0.50mi
2725 E Beck Ln Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	916	$1,395	$1.52	15d	1	0.53mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $9,900 Active 215 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $9,900 Active 214 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $14,900 Active 214 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $14,900 Active 213 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $14,900 Active 212 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $14,900 Active 210 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $14,900 Active 209 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $14,900 Active 206 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $14,900 Active 205 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $14,900 Active 204 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $14,900 Active 201 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $14,900 Active 200 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $14,900 Active 199 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $14,900 Active 198 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $14,900 Active 197 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    price $14,900 1050-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1050 chars)

    Charming 2 bed, 2 bath home in the gated 55+ community of Villa Carmel! This well-maintained property offers low-maintenance landscaping, covered carport parking, & 2 convenient storage sheds. Recent updates include new interior paint, flooring in the kitchen & living room, & updated lighting. All appliances are included, making this home truly move-in ready. Inside, enjoy comfortable dining & living areas, a well-appointed kitchen with everything needed for everyday cooking, & cozy bedrooms that provide restful retreat spaces. The home also features a lovely screened-in patio, perfect for relaxing year-round. Residents enjoy access to desirable community amenities, including a hot tub, refreshing pool. Don't miss this wonderful opportunity! Clubhouse has Fun Events: Bingo, Dinners, Texas Holdem, Coffee & Donuts and Special Holiday Events! 10 minute drive to Desert Ridge, Paradise Valley Mall w/tons of restaurants & shopping. Quick drive to the freeway for easy access to the airport and around the Valley.

17. 2026-02-19
    price $20,000 1050-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1050 chars)

    Charming 2 bed, 2 bath home in the gated 55+ community of Villa Carmel! This well-maintained property offers low-maintenance landscaping, covered carport parking, & 2 convenient storage sheds. Recent updates include new interior paint, flooring in the kitchen & living room, & updated lighting. All appliances are included, making this home truly move-in ready. Inside, enjoy comfortable dining & living areas, a well-appointed kitchen with everything needed for everyday cooking, & cozy bedrooms that provide restful retreat spaces. The home also features a lovely screened-in patio, perfect for relaxing year-round. Residents enjoy access to desirable community amenities, including a hot tub, refreshing pool. Don't miss this wonderful opportunity! Clubhouse has Fun Events: Bingo, Dinners, Texas Holdem, Coffee & Donuts and Special Holiday Events! 10 minute drive to Desert Ridge, Paradise Valley Mall w/tons of restaurants & shopping. Quick drive to the freeway for easy access to the airport and around the Valley.

18. 2025-12-07
    price $29,000 1050-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1050 chars)

    Charming 2 bed, 2 bath home in the gated 55+ community of Villa Carmel! This well-maintained property offers low-maintenance landscaping, covered carport parking, & 2 convenient storage sheds. Recent updates include new interior paint, flooring in the kitchen & living room, & updated lighting. All appliances are included, making this home truly move-in ready. Inside, enjoy comfortable dining & living areas, a well-appointed kitchen with everything needed for everyday cooking, & cozy bedrooms that provide restful retreat spaces. The home also features a lovely screened-in patio, perfect for relaxing year-round. Residents enjoy access to desirable community amenities, including a hot tub, refreshing pool. Don't miss this wonderful opportunity! Clubhouse has Fun Events: Bingo, Dinners, Texas Holdem, Coffee & Donuts and Special Holiday Events! 10 minute drive to Desert Ridge, Paradise Valley Mall w/tons of restaurants & shopping. Quick drive to the freeway for easy access to the airport and around the Valley.

19. 2025-11-15
    listed $35,000 Active 1050-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1050 chars)

    Charming 2 bed, 2 bath home in the gated 55+ community of Villa Carmel! This well-maintained property offers low-maintenance landscaping, covered carport parking, & 2 convenient storage sheds. Recent updates include new interior paint, flooring in the kitchen & living room, & updated lighting. All appliances are included, making this home truly move-in ready. Inside, enjoy comfortable dining & living areas, a well-appointed kitchen with everything needed for everyday cooking, & cozy bedrooms that provide restful retreat spaces. The home also features a lovely screened-in patio, perfect for relaxing year-round. Residents enjoy access to desirable community amenities, including a hot tub, refreshing pool. Don't miss this wonderful opportunity! Clubhouse has Fun Events: Bingo, Dinners, Texas Holdem, Coffee & Donuts and Special Holiday Events! 10 minute drive to Desert Ridge, Paradise Valley Mall w/tons of restaurants & shopping. Quick drive to the freeway for easy access to the airport and around the Valley.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,325
• − Mortgage interest: −$555
• − Property taxes: −$148
• − Insurance: −$50
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,146
• − Management: −$1,146
• − Depreciation: −$288
• Taxable income: $10,992
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,638
• After-tax cash flow: $7,857/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 70,839
• Household income: $78,643
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2887.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 17% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 21% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -488.65%
• Current HPI: 339.4181
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.46%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-57.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $14,900 ARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $20,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-07 Price Changed $29,000 ARMLS
• 2025-11-15 Listed $35,000 ARMLS