216 Stoney Rdg · Hudson, TX 75904

$201,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 158 Days on market

Built 2026 $126/sqft · 21% below area Est $256k · 21% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Glacier Plan from our Freedom Series is a thoughtfully designed 2-story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,600 square feet of living space, complete with a 2-car garage. As you step inside, you'll pass the staircase to the upper level before arriving at the bright and open family room. This inviting space flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining area, creating the perfect setting for family time or entertainment. A convenient half bathroom is located just off the kitchen for easy access. The upper level is designed for relaxation and privacy, featuring a spacious primary suite with a walk-in closet and a private bathroom. Two secondary bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a la

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 157 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $202k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-239 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (27.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.0% in Hudson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#791 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Hudson ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #85 of 826 in TX (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: W F Peavy Pri (696 students, 59% FRL); Hudson Middle (math 71% / reading 55%, grade B+, #123 of 1,662 statewide, top 8%, 646 students, 55% FRL); Hudson H S (math 66% / reading 68%, grade B, #163 of 1,632 statewide, top 11%, 797 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 296 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 120 units permitted in Angelina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $146,504 (27.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.06%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $256,338
• List price: $201,990
• Delta: -21.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-47,901
• Equity at exit: $30,117

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-61,183
• Equity at exit: $17,464

Cash invested: $56,557 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75904

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Active inventory: 296
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,465 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,059
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$252 /mo · $3,030/yr
• Insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $-239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,767

Max offer price $167,475

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-99	-5% $-169	+0% $-239	+5% $-308	+10% $-378
Rent	-10% $-354	-5% $-296	+0% $-239	+5% $-181	+10% $-123
Rate	-1.0pp $-137	-0.5pp $-187	base $-239	+0.5pp $-291	+1.0pp $-344

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,498
• Closing costs: $6,060
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3011 Ted Trout Dr Lot 11 Lufkin, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,095	$0.90	45d	1	0.57mi
861 Mount Carmel Rd Lufkin, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,045	$0.86	45d	4	1.03mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $201,990 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $201,990 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $201,990 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $201,990 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $201,990 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $201,990 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $201,990 Active 149 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $201,990 Active 148 DOM
9. 2026-05-12
   historical
10. 2026-04-22
    price $204,990
11. 2026-04-21
    price $204,990
12. 2026-04-21
    price $204,990
13. 2026-04-18
    price $205,990
14. 2026-04-17
    price $205,990
15. 2026-04-17
    price $205,990
16. 2026-04-14
    listed $208,990 Active
17. 2026-04-14
    historical
18. 2026-04-13
    price $208,990
19. 2026-04-13
    price $208,990
20. 2026-04-11
    price $208,990
21. 2026-03-30
    price $213,990
22. 2026-03-27
    listed $213,990 Active
23. 2026-03-25
    price $213,990
24. 2026-03-11
    price $218,990
25. 2026-03-06
    price $228,990
26. 2026-03-04
    price $234,990
27. 2026-02-27
    price $229,990
28. 2026-02-06
    price $234,990
29. 2026-01-24
    price $236,490
30. 2026-01-15
    price $237,990
31. 2026-01-15
    price $237,990
32. 2026-01-02
    listed $241,490 Active
33. 2025-12-22
    price $239,990
34. 2025-11-19
    listed $243,711 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,580
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,315
• − Property taxes: −$3,030
• − Insurance: −$1,010
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,406
• − Management: −$1,406
• − Depreciation: −$5,876
• Taxable loss: −$6,463
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,551
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,311/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hudson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823790
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,047
• Composite: 49.4/100
• National rank: #2012
• State rank: #85 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hudson

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #791
• US rank: #14441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hudson, TX
• County: Angelina County · 62,696 people
• Metro: Lufkin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,462
• Household income: $60,205
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1159.0

Population outlook (Angelina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,174 people
• By 2030: 90,697 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 91,291 · +1.2%
• By 2050: 91,168 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 88,961 · -1.3%
• By 2100: 80,590 · -10.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 16% Two or more races 12% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Angelina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.0) · D 23.7% · R 75.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -35.0pp · 2024: -52.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.0 2020: R+46.1 2016: R+47.3 2012: R+43.9 2008: R+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.71%
• Current HPI: 213.4236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lufkin, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.9% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $204,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $204,990 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $204,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $205,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $205,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $205,990 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-04-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $208,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $208,990 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $208,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $208,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $213,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $213,990 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $213,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $218,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $228,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $234,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $229,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $234,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $236,490 Zillow
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $237,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $237,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-02 Listed $241,490 Zillow
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $239,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-19 Listed $243,711 HARMLS