2059 Pebble Creek Dr · Brandon, MS 39042

$286,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,550 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 2024 6,098 sqft lot Est $271k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Better than new and loaded with upgrades, this beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Stonebridge offers approximately 1,550 square feet of living space in one of the area's most sought-after communities. From the open-concept layout to the extensive improvements already completed, this home is truly move-in ready. The spacious living area features a cozy fireplace and flows seamlessly into the kitchen, where you'll find quartz countertops, a stylish backsplash, luxury vinyl plank flooring, and modern finishes throughout. The owners have invested in numerous upgrades, including gutters, a wood privacy fence, an extended back patio, a French drain in the backyard, and a security system with ext

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Security system
• French drain

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• WOOD PRIVACY FENCE
• EXTENDED BACK PATIO
• FRENCH DRAIN
• SECURITY SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (management provided); Community clubhouse; Community pool; Community playground; Sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with automatic opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single-family house; One level; Builder-provided living area measurement
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation; Architectural shingle roof; Built by builder
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Rain gutters; Privacy wood fencing in backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Gas log fireplace; Trash disposal; Lighting
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $286k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-377 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (23.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.2% in Brandon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#3 in MS, #1,514 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rouse Elementary (797 students, 100% FRL); Brandon Middle School (math 67% / reading 49%, grade B, #11 of 179 statewide, top 6%, 1,193 students, 100% FRL); Brandon High School (math 47% / reading 49%, grade D, #27 of 197 statewide, top 13%, 1,648 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,432 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.74%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $271,250
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
538 Stone Brook Pl	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+0%)	1mo	$284,999	$183	90
244 Stonebridge Blvd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,531 (-1%)	0mo	$270,000	$176	90
309 Flagstone Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-2%)	2mo	$265,000	$175	88
217 Stonebridge Blvd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,628 (+5%)	5mo	$269,900	$166	80
509 Stone Brook Pl	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+3%)	2mo	$289,999	$181	78
409 Sand Stone Pl	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,633 (+5%)	5mo	$244,000	$149	77
505 Stone Brook Pl	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+3%)	6mo	$289,999	$181	75
503 Stone Brook Pl	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,675 (+8%)	5mo	$292,999	$175	73
535 Stone Brook Pl	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,675 (+8%)	6mo	$292,999	$175	72
534 Stone Brook Pl	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,750 (+13%)	2mo	$299,999	$171	67
507 Stone Brook Pl	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,750 (+13%)	4mo	$299,999	$171	65
544 Stone Brook Pl	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,750 (+13%)	8mo	$299,999	$171	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-60,020
• Equity at exit: $42,644

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-37,108
• Equity at exit: $24,728

Cash invested: $80,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39042

• Home prices YoY: -34.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,342 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,500
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,176/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-377

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,819

Max offer price $219,432

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-215	-5% $-296	+0% $-377	+5% $-458	+10% $-539
Rent	-10% $-562	-5% $-469	+0% $-377	+5% $-284	+10% $-192
Rate	-1.0pp $-233	-0.5pp $-304	base $-377	+0.5pp $-451	+1.0pp $-526

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,500
• Closing costs: $8,580
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
610 Diamond Way Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,595	$1.43	45d	1	0.06mi
604 King Richard Rd Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,125	$0.98	15d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-22
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-22
   listed $286,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,176 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,259 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: +$83/yr (+$7/mo · 3.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,102
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,020
• − Property taxes: −$2,176
• − Insurance: −$6,548
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,248
• − Management: −$2,248
• − Depreciation: −$8,320
• Taxable loss: −$9,460
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,270
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

Livability — Brandon

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #1514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 79,950
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 39,142
• Household income: $88,597
• Rent vs Own: 17.4% rent · 82.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 474.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.04%
• Current HPI: 172.5248
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.13%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Listed $286,000 MLSU
• 2007-11-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,176 · +90.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.