36 Cottage Rd · Baiting Hollow, NY 11933

$139,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 606 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 170 Days on market

Built 1955 2,614 sqft lot $231/sqft · 8% below area Est $151k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a chic spot to land while your Hamptons home is rented? Dreaming of summer days where you can stroll to a private, residents-only beach? Perfectly positioned with effortless access to both the North and South Forks-farm stands, wineries, iconic beaches, and all the charm of the East End-this stylish 3-bed, 1-bath beach bungalow is your perfect Hamptons escape. Enjoy an expansive deck with grill, outdoor dining, and a cozy fire pit for golden-hour gatherings. Head down the private beach staircase, complete with hooks for your chairs and umbrella-because in the Hamptons, beach days should feel effortless. With a generous yard and parking for four cars, this retreat blends relaxed coastal living with quintessential Hamptons ease. This beach house opportunity is truly a must-see. Located in the seasonal community of Woodcliff Park, open April through October. Owner/Broker.

Key facts

• Generous yard
• Outdoor dining
• Cozy fire pit

Tags

• PRIVATE RESIDENTS ONLY BEACH
• EXPANSIVE DECK
• OUTDOOR DINING
• COZY FIRE PIT
• PRIVATE BEACH STAIRCASE
• GENEROUS YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($24k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.2% vs local median 5.5% in Baiting Hollow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#953 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $140k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.43%
• DSCR: 3.69
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $151,288
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -7.53%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 65.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.69×
• Total profit: $144,463
• Equity at exit: $64,960

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.58×
• Total profit: $335,915
• Equity at exit: $101,739

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11933

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,696 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,862/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$776
• Net cashflow: $1,973

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,199

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 170 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 169 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 168 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 167 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 165 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 161 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 160 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 159 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $139,900 Active 156 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 155 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 154 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 153 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 152 DOM
14. 2026-04-20
    price $139,900 896-char remark

    Show marketing remark (896 chars)

    Looking for a chic spot to land while your Hamptons home is rented? Dreaming of summer days where you can stroll to a private, residents-only beach? Perfectly positioned with effortless access to both the North and South Forks-farm stands, wineries, iconic beaches, and all the charm of the East End-this stylish 3-bed, 1-bath beach bungalow is your perfect Hamptons escape. Enjoy an expansive deck with grill, outdoor dining, and a cozy fire pit for golden-hour gatherings. Head down the private beach staircase, complete with hooks for your chairs and umbrella-because in the Hamptons, beach days should feel effortless. With a generous yard and parking for four cars, this retreat blends relaxed coastal living with quintessential Hamptons ease. This beach house opportunity is truly a must-see. Located in the seasonal community of Woodcliff Park, open April through October. Owner/Broker.

15. 2025-12-30
    listed $149,900 Active 896-char remark

    Show marketing remark (896 chars)

    Looking for a chic spot to land while your Hamptons home is rented? Dreaming of summer days where you can stroll to a private, residents-only beach? Perfectly positioned with effortless access to both the North and South Forks-farm stands, wineries, iconic beaches, and all the charm of the East End-this stylish 3-bed, 1-bath beach bungalow is your perfect Hamptons escape. Enjoy an expansive deck with grill, outdoor dining, and a cozy fire pit for golden-hour gatherings. Head down the private beach staircase, complete with hooks for your chairs and umbrella-because in the Hamptons, beach days should feel effortless. With a generous yard and parking for four cars, this retreat blends relaxed coastal living with quintessential Hamptons ease. This beach house opportunity is truly a must-see. Located in the seasonal community of Woodcliff Park, open April through October. Owner/Broker.

16. 2018-06-11
    soldstatus $63,000 Closed 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Rare Find 3 Bedroom Cottage In Seasonal Beachfront Community & On Large Parcel. Just A Short Stroll Around The Corner To The Beach Staircase. Community Open April 15-October 15. Land Is Leased. Perfect For Snowbird Living Or Vacationing On The North Fork By The Beach. Cash Sales Only, Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

17. 2018-05-17
    listed $69,990 New 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Rare Find 3 Bedroom Cottage In Seasonal Beachfront Community & On Large Parcel. Just A Short Stroll Around The Corner To The Beach Staircase. Community Open April 15-October 15. Land Is Leased. Perfect For Snowbird Living Or Vacationing On The North Fork By The Beach. Cash Sales Only, Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

18. 2013-01-11
    soldstatus $25,000
19. 2012-07-13
    listed $34,990

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,862 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,113 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: +$251/yr (+$21/mo · 13.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,349
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,862
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,548
• − Management: −$3,548
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $22,786
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,469
• After-tax cash flow: $18,202/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Baiting Hollow

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #953
• US rank: #18639

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baiting Hollow, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,784

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Current HPI: 397.7148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+299.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $139,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-30 Listed $149,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-11 Sold (MLS) $63,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-17 Listed $69,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-01-11 Sold (MLS) $25,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-13 Listed $34,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,862 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.