23 Tiffany Pl #23 · Santa Rosa, CA 95409

$109,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 128 Days on market

Built 1972 Est $181k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Super location, hidden within a senior park, close to clubhouse and easy access to all amenities. Features Retro styled 2 bedrooms 2 baths, large den/family room with washer dryer hookups. Original paneling throughout. Windows are updated double pane. Park requirements for income to qualify are based upon 3.5-4 times your net income, after taxes and all debts! This is a 55+ community.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Washer dryer hookups
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• CLUBHOUSE
• WASHER DRYER HOOKUPS
• UPDATED DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease: $801
• HOA & community: No association; Senior community; Located in Santa Rosa Village (park)

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking for 2 (side-by-side)
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector; Smoke detector
• Utilities: Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in park (double wide); Faces north; Original condition
• Construction: Marlette manufactured home; Aluminum skirting; Other roof type
• Exterior features: Covered deck; Carpeted porch; Porch with awning; Railed porch; Shed(s); Close to clubhouse; Located on a cul-de-sac; Front landscaping

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas oven; Free-standing gas oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Range hood
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Shower stall(s); Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Carbon monoxide detector; Smoke detector; Den; Dining room (Dining/Living combo); Living room with attached deck; Laminate counters
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet with hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.9% vs local median 2.5% in Santa Rosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#112 in CA, #3,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 154 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.80%
• DSCR: 3.48
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $181,440
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34 Maywood Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$195,000	$135	96
35 Maywood Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,368 (-5%)	12mo	$170,000	$124	79
26 Tiffany Pl #26	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	12mo	$170,000	$126	78
2 Larkspur Pl	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	18mo	$119,000	$89	71
65 Brier Pl	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	15mo	$250,000	$186	66
162 Larkspur Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	15mo	$100,000	$80	62
186 Redwing Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-3%)	2mo	$249,000	$178	61
11 Larkspur Pl	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	22mo	$122,500	$98	59
48 Cardinal Way	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,288 (-11%)	10mo	$244,000	$189	51
129 Redwing Dr	0.54mi	2/1.5	1,300 (-10%)	19mo	$148,000	$114	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.27×
• Total profit: $69,961
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.73×
• Total profit: $176,392
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95409

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,773 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$137 /mo · $1,648/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$582
• Net cashflow: $1,364

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,046

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
808 Shady Oak Dr Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,800	$2.55	13d	1	0.21mi
4145 Shadow Ln Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	825	$2,893	$3.51	13d	11	0.30mi
1201 Mission Blvd Unit 1255 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	970	$2,000	$2.06	13d	1	0.37mi
4656 Quigg Dr Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$2,680	$2.82	13d	9	0.58mi
3732 Ahl Park Ct Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$2,796	$2.73	13d	7	0.59mi
3637 Sonoma Ave Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.5	1117	$2,599	$2.33	13d	3	0.61mi
2041 Terrace Way Unit 1538698P Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	1323	$4,500	$3.40	21d	1	1.17mi
6263 Montecito Blvd Unit 05 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,650	$2.65	13d	1	1.22mi
6263 Montecito Blvd Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,650	$2.65	23d	1	1.22mi
1530 Atlanta Ct Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0	903	$2,345	$2.60	13d	2	1.26mi
1525 Atlanta Ct Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	1.0	1146	$2,695	$2.35	13d	1	1.28mi
174 S Boas Dr Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	781	$2,755	$3.53	13d	6	1.29mi
42 Redwood Ct Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.0	1166	$2,700	$2.32	13d	1	1.34mi
2601 Vallejo St Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	3.0	1232	$2,650	$2.15	13d	1	1.36mi
1208 McDonald Ave Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	1820	$3,800	$2.09	13d	1	1.38mi
6600 Montecito Blvd Unit 02 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$2,450	$2.58	21d	1	1.39mi
1303 Hexem Ave Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.0	1529	$3,500	$2.29	21d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,900 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,900 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,900 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,900 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,900 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,900 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,900 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,900 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $109,900 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,900 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 387-char remark
14. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $109,900 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 111 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 110 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 109 DOM
18. 2026-02-11
    listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,272
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$1,648
• − Insurance: −$1,347
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,662
• − Management: −$2,662
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $15,600
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,744
• After-tax cash flow: $12,630/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa High
• NCES district ID: 0635830
• Math proficiency: 31% —
• Reading proficiency: 47% —
• Median HH income: $62,000
• Composite: 37.25/100
• National rank: #8972
• State rank: #703 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Rosa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #3940

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Rosa, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 210,074
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 25,616
• Household income: $107,867
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 908.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -750.32%
• Current HPI: 226.8795
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Listed $120,000 BAREIS