CHAMPLAIN Plan · Texas City, TX 77568

$309,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,786 sqft · SingleFamily · 400 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The single-story Champlain plan boasts an open, inviting central layout, with a spacious great room overlooking a dining area and a kitchen with a center island and built-in pantry. The primary suite is adjacent, showcasing a walk-in closet and private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower. Two secondary bedrooms each offer a walk-in closet. You'll also find a private study in this plan. 2-bay garage included. Options: Covered patio

Key facts

• Built-in pantry
• Central layout
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• CENTRAL LAYOUT
• GREAT ROOM
• DINING AREA
• KITCHEN WITH CENTER ISLAND
• BUILT-IN PANTRY
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $309,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $370,127.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-701 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (13.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (24.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (24.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 654 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 400 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $234,996 (24.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 400 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.12%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $370,127
• List price: $309,990
• Delta: -16.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13714 Ballast Green Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,738 (-3%)	1mo	$344,560	$198	83
13220 Harbor Point Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,819 (+2%)	1mo	$354,990	$195	82
3026 Banyan Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,850 (+4%)	1mo	$345,900	$187	75
14001 Baikal Manor Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,804 (+1%)	1mo	$321,990	$178	71
2917 Mariner Island Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,922 (+8%)	1mo	$360,990	$188	71
13525 Bonita Island Way	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,900 (+6%)	1mo	$288,900	$152	69
13016 Cobalt Cove Ct	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,963 (+10%)	0mo	$312,990	$159	65
13421 Diamond Reef Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,900 (+6%)	1mo	$284,900	$150	64
13926 Baikal Manor Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,619 (-9%)	1mo	$305,990	$189	62
13544 Diamond Reef Ln	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,635 (-8%)	1mo	$284,900	$174	52
13001 Deep Marine Dr	0.43mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,053 (+15%)	1mo	$338,000	$165	45
13009 Oleander Bay Ln	0.48mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,040 (+14%)	0mo	$325,000	$159	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-102,346
• Equity at exit: $55,187

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-137,013
• Equity at exit: $32,002

Cash invested: $103,636 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 654
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,350 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,941
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$463 /mo · $5,552/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $-701

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,238

Max offer price $268,635

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,532
• Closing costs: $11,104
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Santa Fe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$2,445	$1.08	1d	1	0.55mi
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	22d	1	0.93mi
6136 Lago Mar Blvd Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,900	$1.34	44d	1	0.95mi
6130 Lago Mar Blvd Texas City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$2,199	$2.06	4d	2	1.04mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	12d	1	1.10mi
3301 Gulf Fwy La Marque, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	991	$2,430	$2.45	2d	22	1.11mi
2437 Regatta Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,079	$1.13	5d	1	1.20mi
2301 Starboard Sail Alta Loma, TX	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,181	$1.18	11d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $309,990 Active 400 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $309,990 Active 399 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $309,990 Active 398 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $309,990 Active 397 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $309,990 Active 395 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $309,990 Active 391 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $309,990 Active 390 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $309,990 Active 389 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $309,990 Active 386 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $309,990 Active 385 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $309,990 Active 384 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $309,990 Active 383 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,990 Active 382 DOM
14. 2025-05-14
    listed $309,990 Active 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    The single-story Champlain plan boasts an open, inviting central layout, with a spacious great room overlooking a dining area and a kitchen with a center island and built-in pantry. The primary suite is adjacent, showcasing a walk-in closet and private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower. Two secondary bedrooms each offer a walk-in closet. You'll also find a private study in this plan. 2-bay garage included. Options: Covered patio

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,733
• − Property taxes: −$5,552
• − Insurance: −$1,851
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,256
• − Management: −$2,256
• − Depreciation: −$10,767
• Taxable loss: −$15,215
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,652
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,765/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 49,936
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-05-14 Listed $309,990 Zillow