7207 Hunters Creek #4 Rd #4 · Holland, NY 14080

$15,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 10 Days on market

Built 1970

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this one bedroom one bath with upgrades plus! Updates include a new addition that could be used as a work room, storage, or office. New roof, new furnace an updated living room, updated bedroom. Newer kitchen cabinets. This home is in a park like setting and within the Holland School District. The sheds will stay on the property . Park approval is required. House is being sold as is.

Key facts

• New furnace
• Updated living room
• Updated bedroom

Tags

• NEW ADDITION
• NEW ROOF
• NEW FURNACE
• UPDATED LIVING ROOM
• UPDATED BEDROOM
• NEWER KITCHEN CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $558 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($838 rent vs $15k).
• Cap rate 51.0% vs local median 1.7% in Holland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,016 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Holland Central School District (rural): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #501 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $104 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $450 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $15,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 50.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 159.54%
• DSCR: 8.10
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $3,200
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7207 Hunters Creek # 37 Rd #37	0.00mi	2/1.0 (+1)	910 (+14%)	9mo	$4,000	$4	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.89×
• Total profit: $33,146
• Equity at exit: $2,237

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.79×
• Total profit: $74,709
• Equity at exit: $1,297

Cash invested: $4,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14080

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $838 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$19 /mo · $225/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$176
• Net cashflow: $558

Break-even live

Break-even rent $131

Max offer price $15,000

Occupancy floor 28%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $569	-5% $564	+0% $558	+5% $553	+10% $548
Rent	-10% $492	-5% $525	+0% $558	+5% $591	+10% $625
Rate	-1.0pp $566	-0.5pp $562	base $558	+0.5pp $555	+1.0pp $551

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,750
• Closing costs: $450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   listed $15,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,056
• − Mortgage interest: −$840
• − Property taxes: −$225
• − Insurance: −$75
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$805
• − Management: −$805
• − Depreciation: −$436
• Taxable income: $6,871
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,649
• After-tax cash flow: $5,052/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Holland Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614550
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $59,519
• Composite: 35.39/100
• National rank: #4950
• State rank: #501 of 590 in NY

Livability — Holland

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1016
• US rank: #19853

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 4,434
• Population (ZIP): 4,434

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.07%
• Current HPI: 323.2109
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $15,000 WNYREIS