850 Levi Ln · Mesquite, TX 75126

$275,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,752 sqft · SingleFamily · 399 Days on market

Built 2018 6,273 sqft lot $157/sqft · 11% below area Est $309k · 11% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home in Forney ISD! Spacious living room with breakfast bar connecting to the eat-in kitchen, which offers granite countertops & stainless steel appliances. The primary suite features a walk-in closet with custom closet system & ensuite bath. Your furry friends will have room to run and play in the spacious backyard. Easy access to I-20.

Key facts

• Custom closet system
• Walk-in closet
• Ensuite bath

Tags

• BREAKFAST BAR
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• CUSTOM CLOSET SYSTEM
• ENSUITE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $117 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (6.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.4% in Mesquite — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#358 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools C-, crime F, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2179 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 399 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 399 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.82%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $309,019
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -11.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3210 Emerson Rd	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-9%)	4mo	$253,990	$159	79
3225 Stanley St	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,801 (+3%)	1mo	$269,900	$150	64
2465 Willard Way	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,627 (-7%)	4mo	$289,990	$178	62
4200 Plateau Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,832 (+5%)	4mo	$320,990	$175	59
2015 Allyson Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,614 (-8%)	3mo	$245,000	$152	54
2002 Carriage Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,885 (+8%)	1mo	$253,500	$134	53
2008 Allyson Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,869 (+7%)	4mo	$249,900	$134	49
2007 Sterling Gate Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,912 (+9%)	2mo	$265,000	$139	48
4174 Plateau Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,935 (+10%)	4mo	$340,490	$176	47
4194 Plateau Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0	2,014 (+15%)	4mo	$359,490	$178	42
2029 Karsen Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,496 (-15%)	5mo	$249,990	$167	42
4168 Plateau Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,014 (+15%)	4mo	$362,750	$180	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-41,088
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-41,997
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2179
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,574 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$317 /mo · $3,810/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,426

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2850 Dusty Rd Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2115	$2,450	$1.16	19d	1	0.21mi
1450 Arabella Ave Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1636	$2,250	$1.38	12d	1	0.41mi
2320 Willard Way Forney, TX	5.0	4.0	2408	$3,950	$1.64	43d	1	0.46mi
3001 Glazner Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$2,350	$1.56	43d	1	0.49mi
3137 Grimaldo Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1585	$2,195	$1.38	24d	1	0.52mi
3137 Grimaldo Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,995	$1.27	12d	1	0.52mi
3012 Glazner Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1984	$2,195	$1.11	3d	1	0.53mi
2035 Karsen Ln Heartland, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$2,125	$1.34	1d	1	0.53mi
3204 Stanley St Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2425	$2,400	$0.99	24d	1	0.56mi
4186 Rim Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2060	$2,750	$1.33	43d	1	0.60mi
2038 Allyson Dr Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1496	$1,900	$1.27	43d	1	0.61mi
4198 Plateau Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1832	$3,573	$1.95	43d	1	0.63mi
4162 Rim Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1916	$2,500	$1.30	43d	1	0.65mi
2040 Shawnee Trl Heartland, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,000	$1.09	15d	1	0.66mi
3324 Perman Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1724	$2,125	$1.23	12d	1	0.67mi
4178 Plateau Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1832	$3,573	$1.95	44d	1	0.67mi
3328 Perman Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2301	$2,400	$1.04	43d	1	0.67mi
4170 Plateau Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$3,573	$1.70	43d	1	0.68mi
2048 Stagecoach Trl Heartland, TX	3.0	2.5	2284	$2,300	$1.01	1d	1	0.73mi
2048 Stagecoach Trl Unit NA Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2284	$2,295	$1.00	43d	1	0.73mi
2015 Angel Way Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,671	$1.19	22d	1	0.80mi
4306 Paxton Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1837	$2,600	$1.42	43d	1	0.85mi
4009 Freedom St Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,800	$1.27	44d	1	0.96mi
4005 Waterford Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1852	$2,350	$1.27	43d	1	0.96mi
2048 Lake Trail Dr Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1900	$2,300	$1.21	1d	1	1.00mi
2048 Lake Trail Dr Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1908	$2,250	$1.18	2d	1	1.00mi
4032 Eagle Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,775	$1.22	4d	1	1.08mi
2140 Florence Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2032	$2,600	$1.28	43d	1	1.23mi
2302 Doe Branch Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2457	$2,750	$1.12	22d	1	1.26mi
2503 Blue Oasis Ct Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2127	$2,499	$1.17	7d	1	1.27mi
1308 Middlebrooks Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2231	$2,650	$1.19	44d	1	1.42mi
1968 Marble Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2051	$2,350	$1.15	15d	1	1.42mi
4121 Gaillardia Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2135	$2,250	$1.05	18d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $275,000 Active 399 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $275,000 Active 398 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $275,000 Active 397 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $275,000 Active 396 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $275,000 Active 395 DOM
6. 2025-09-16
   price $275,000 378-char remark

   Show marketing remark (378 chars)

   Charming 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home in Forney ISD! Spacious living room with breakfast bar connecting to the eat-in kitchen, which offers granite countertops & stainless steel appliances. The primary suite features a walk-in closet with custom closet system & ensuite bath. Your furry friends will have room to run and play in the spacious backyard. Easy access to I-20.

7. 2025-05-01
   listed $285,000 Active 378-char remark

   Show marketing remark (378 chars)

   Charming 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home in Forney ISD! Spacious living room with breakfast bar connecting to the eat-in kitchen, which offers granite countertops & stainless steel appliances. The primary suite features a walk-in closet with custom closet system & ensuite bath. Your furry friends will have room to run and play in the spacious backyard. Easy access to I-20.

8. 2025-05-01
   historical

   Show marketing remark (378 chars)

   Charming 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home in Forney ISD! Spacious living room with breakfast bar connecting to the eat-in kitchen, which offers granite countertops & stainless steel appliances. The primary suite features a walk-in closet with custom closet system & ensuite bath. Your furry friends will have room to run and play in the spacious backyard. Easy access to I-20.

9. 2025-01-23
   listed $285,000 Active
10. 2024-10-28
    soldstatus
11. 2024-10-25
    soldstatus Closed
12. 2024-09-26
    historical Active Option Contract
13. 2024-09-18
    price $285,000
14. 2024-08-09
    status Active
15. 2024-08-03
    historical Active Option Contract
16. 2024-07-22
    status Active
17. 2024-07-16
    historical Active Option Contract
18. 2024-06-29
    listed $290,000 Active
19. 2019-02-11
    soldstatus Sold
20. 2019-02-02
    status Pending
21. 2018-12-30
    listed $211,490 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,810 · $317/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,032 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,223/yr (+$102/mo · 32.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,884
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$3,810
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,471
• − Management: −$2,471
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$3,150
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$756
• After-tax cash flow: $2,160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mesquite

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #7743

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 150,788
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+30.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $275,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-05-01 Listed $285,000 NTREIS
• 2025-01-23 Listed $285,000 NTREIS
• 2024-10-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-10-25 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2024-09-26 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2024-09-18 Price Changed $285,000 NTREIS
• 2024-08-09 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2024-08-03 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2024-07-22 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2024-07-16 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2024-06-29 Listed $290,000 NTREIS
• 2019-02-11 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2019-02-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2018-12-30 Listed $211,490 NTREIS

Property tax history

+22.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,810 · -53.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.