3919 Vineyard Dr · Houston, TX 77082

$140,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,524 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1981 5,401 sqft lot $92/sqft · 39% below area Est $230k · 39% under $18/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Perfect investment opportunity with an ideal roommate-style layout! This 2-bedroom, 2-full bath home features spacious bedroom suites located on opposite sides of the house, offering privacy and flexibility for tenants, guests, or multi-generational living. The central living area and kitchen create a functional and inviting common space perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The updated secondary bathroom adds modern appeal, while the large bedrooms provide comfort and plenty of storage potential. Natural light pours throughout the home, creating a bright and airy atmosphere in every room. With a smart floor plan, generous living spaces, and strong rental potential, this property is

Key facts

• 5,401 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1981

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Sterling Association Service manages the association; Annual association fee of $215

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1981; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (16 x 14); Bedroom on first floor (12 x 11)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9 ($108/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Alief ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #717 of 826 in TX (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Albright Middle (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 1,058 students, 81% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $140k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.27%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $229,933
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -39.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3919 Vineyard Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,524 (0%)	0mo	$140,000	$92	100
16218 Indian Mill Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,497 (-2%)	1mo	$229,990	$154	87
16127 Ridgegreen Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,424 (-7%)	1mo	$255,000	$179	70
3631 Brier Gardens Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,583 (+4%)	0mo	$234,900	$148	66
3742 Royal Manor Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,583 (+4%)	1mo	$275,000	$174	65
3427 Esterbrook Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,562 (+2%)	3mo	$239,900	$154	63
16022 Glen Mar Drive Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,705 (+12%)	1mo	$258,950	$152	57
16123 Ridgegreen Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,734 (+14%)	2mo	$218,990	$126	57
3703 Redwood Falls Dr	0.63mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,583 (+4%)	2mo	$260,000	$164	55
3607 Vineyard Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,715 (+12%)	1mo	$185,000	$108	55
3831 E Traditions Ct	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,316 (-14%)	2mo	$175,000	$133	55
16026 Mission Village Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,364 (-10%)	3mo	$219,900	$161	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.21% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-21,801
• Equity at exit: $25,881

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-31,032
• Equity at exit: $20,882

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77082

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,560 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$413 /mo · $4,958/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$18
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,549

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $88	-5% $49	+0% $9	+5% $-31	+10% $-70
Rent	-10% $-114	-5% $-53	+0% $9	+5% $71	+10% $132
Rate	-1.0pp $79	-0.5pp $45	base $9	+0.5pp $-27	+1.0pp $-64

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15706 Tammany Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,816	$1.28	13d	1	0.31mi
3707 Addicks Clodine Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,375	$1.26	25d	1	0.38mi
15035 Westpark Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	977	$1,569	$1.61	2d	13	0.61mi
15035 Westpark Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	977	$1,150	$1.18	44d	1	0.61mi
3530 Green Crest Dr Unit 3563 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1215	$1,522	$1.25	44d	1	0.74mi
15250 Gray Ridge Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1063	$1,501	$1.41	44d	1	0.77mi
3530 Green Crest Dr Houston, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1116	$1,335	$1.20	22d	6	0.81mi
3206 Diamond Star Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2122	$2,279	$1.07	44d	1	0.83mi
6514 Winkleman Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2225	$2,095	$0.94	13d	1	0.85mi
16311 Paso Hondo Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1449	$1,723	$1.19	44d	1	0.86mi
16717 Westpark Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1042	$1,845	$1.77	3d	38	0.86mi
6822 Santa Rita Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,510	$1.16	25d	1	0.95mi
15770 Bellaire Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	938	$1,362	$1.45	12d	1	1.00mi
14906 Westpark Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1174	$1,599	$1.36	2d	44	1.11mi
15155 S Richmond Ave Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,375	$1.26	13d	1	1.14mi
15155 S Richmond Ave Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,375	$1.26	44d	1	1.14mi
14723 W Oaks Plaza Dr Unit 14756 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,896	$1.39	11d	1	1.26mi
7431 Navidad Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1904	$1,621	$0.85	44d	1	1.30mi
7223 Londres Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.5	1076	$1,720	$1.60	44d	1	1.33mi
3616 S Richmond Ave Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1149	$2,217	$1.93	2d	23	1.33mi
14913 Richmond Ave Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	935	$1,496	$1.60	21d	24	1.34mi
14723 W Oaks Plaza Dr Unit 3165 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,864	$1.36	3d	1	1.36mi
15155 Richmond Ave Unit 15188 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1542	$1,863	$1.21	11d	1	1.41mi
15155 Richmond Ave Unit 15212 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1231	$1,358	$1.10	16d	1	1.41mi
15161 Richmond Ave Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1175	$1,505	$1.28	44d	1	1.45mi
15155 Richmond Ave Unit 15192 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1175	$1,423	$1.21	11d	1	1.45mi
15155 Richmond Ave Unit 525 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1542	$1,831	$1.19	3d	1	1.45mi
15155 Richmond Ave Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1175	$1,399	$1.19	6d	1	1.45mi
15155 Richmond Ave Unit 2112 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1175	$1,391	$1.18	3d	1	1.45mi
15155 Richmond Ave Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1175	$1,399	$1.19	8d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $18 · $216/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-13
   listed $140,000 Active 897-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   historical $140,000 897-char remark
3. 1995-12-27
   soldstatus $62,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,958 · $413/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,958 · $413/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,723
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$4,958
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,498
• − Management: −$1,498
• − HOA: −$216
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$2,061
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$495
• After-tax cash flow: $602/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alief ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807830
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $37,775
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8391
• State rank: #717 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 59,412
• Household income: $62,455
• Rent vs Own: 63.6% rent · 36.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3722.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 40% Hispanic / Latino 27% White 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Armenian 2% Arab 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 4% Arabic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.21%
• Current HPI: 237.2183
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.62%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+124.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-05-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Coming Soon $140,000 HARMLS
• 1995-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,958 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.