12 Henderson Rd · Hankins, NY 12741

$229,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,424 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 301 Days on market

Built 1890 6.64 ac lot $161/sqft · 66% below area ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Off a quiet country road and down a long driveway sits an original Mileses homestead, reminiscent of years gone by. Dating back to circa 1850, and added to and improved over the years, this home features a rocking chair front porch where you can relax and take in the sounds of nature and enjoy the distant views. This vintage farmhouse offers good-sized rooms and some original features, with great potential for the buyer who appreciates old homes. Privately set on 6.64 acres, the land is beautifully timbered and mostly level to gently sloping. There is a spring on the property that is the water source for the home, plus remnants from a barn and old blacksmith shop can also be found. Don't miss the opportunity to visit this property if you're looking for that special place in the country where your creativity can soar.

Key facts

• Remnants from a barn
• 6.64 acre lot
• Built 1890

Tags

• ROCKING CHAIR FRONT PORCH
• PRIVATELY SET ON 6.64 ACRES
• BEAUTIFULLY TIMBERED LAND
• MOSTLY LEVEL TO GENTLY SLOPING
• SPRING ON THE PROPERTY
• REMNANTS FROM A BARN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-293 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (22.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (32.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (32.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 1.6% in Hankins — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sullivan West Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #436 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 301 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $154,105 (32.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 301 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.48%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $797,568
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: -71.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $8,902
• Equity at exit: $102,968

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $57,853
• Equity at exit: $158,686

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12741

• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,541 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$214 /mo · $2,570/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $-293

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,912

Max offer price $177,234

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-163	-5% $-228	+0% $-293	+5% $-358	+10% $-423
Rent	-10% $-415	-5% $-354	+0% $-293	+5% $-232	+10% $-171
Rate	-1.0pp $-178	-0.5pp $-235	base $-293	+0.5pp $-352	+1.0pp $-413

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $229,000 Active 301 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 299 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 298 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 297 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 296 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 294 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $229,000 Active 293 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 290 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 289 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 288 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 287 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,000 Active 284 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 283 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 282 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 281 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    status Active 830-char remark

    Show marketing remark (830 chars)

    Off a quiet country road and down a long driveway sits an original Mileses homestead, reminiscent of years gone by. Dating back to circa 1850, and added to and improved over the years, this home features a rocking chair front porch where you can relax and take in the sounds of nature and enjoy the distant views. This vintage farmhouse offers good-sized rooms and some original features, with great potential for the buyer who appreciates old homes. Privately set on 6.64 acres, the land is beautifully timbered and mostly level to gently sloping. There is a spring on the property that is the water source for the home, plus remnants from a barn and old blacksmith shop can also be found. Don't miss the opportunity to visit this property if you're looking for that special place in the country where your creativity can soar.

17. 2026-01-14
    status Active 830-char remark

    Show marketing remark (830 chars)

    Off a quiet country road and down a long driveway sits an original Mileses homestead, reminiscent of years gone by. Dating back to circa 1850, and added to and improved over the years, this home features a rocking chair front porch where you can relax and take in the sounds of nature and enjoy the distant views. This vintage farmhouse offers good-sized rooms and some original features, with great potential for the buyer who appreciates old homes. Privately set on 6.64 acres, the land is beautifully timbered and mostly level to gently sloping. There is a spring on the property that is the water source for the home, plus remnants from a barn and old blacksmith shop can also be found. Don't miss the opportunity to visit this property if you're looking for that special place in the country where your creativity can soar.

18. 2026-01-01
    historical 830-char remark

    Show marketing remark (830 chars)

    Off a quiet country road and down a long driveway sits an original Mileses homestead, reminiscent of years gone by. Dating back to circa 1850, and added to and improved over the years, this home features a rocking chair front porch where you can relax and take in the sounds of nature and enjoy the distant views. This vintage farmhouse offers good-sized rooms and some original features, with great potential for the buyer who appreciates old homes. Privately set on 6.64 acres, the land is beautifully timbered and mostly level to gently sloping. There is a spring on the property that is the water source for the home, plus remnants from a barn and old blacksmith shop can also be found. Don't miss the opportunity to visit this property if you're looking for that special place in the country where your creativity can soar.

19. 2025-11-06
    price $229,000 830-char remark

    Show marketing remark (830 chars)

    Off a quiet country road and down a long driveway sits an original Mileses homestead, reminiscent of years gone by. Dating back to circa 1850, and added to and improved over the years, this home features a rocking chair front porch where you can relax and take in the sounds of nature and enjoy the distant views. This vintage farmhouse offers good-sized rooms and some original features, with great potential for the buyer who appreciates old homes. Privately set on 6.64 acres, the land is beautifully timbered and mostly level to gently sloping. There is a spring on the property that is the water source for the home, plus remnants from a barn and old blacksmith shop can also be found. Don't miss the opportunity to visit this property if you're looking for that special place in the country where your creativity can soar.

20. 2025-05-21
    listed $249,000 Active 830-char remark

    Show marketing remark (830 chars)

    Off a quiet country road and down a long driveway sits an original Mileses homestead, reminiscent of years gone by. Dating back to circa 1850, and added to and improved over the years, this home features a rocking chair front porch where you can relax and take in the sounds of nature and enjoy the distant views. This vintage farmhouse offers good-sized rooms and some original features, with great potential for the buyer who appreciates old homes. Privately set on 6.64 acres, the land is beautifully timbered and mostly level to gently sloping. There is a spring on the property that is the water source for the home, plus remnants from a barn and old blacksmith shop can also be found. Don't miss the opportunity to visit this property if you're looking for that special place in the country where your creativity can soar.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,570 · $214/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,220 · $268/mo
• Expected delta: +$650/yr (+$54/mo · 25.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,493
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$2,570
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,479
• − Management: −$1,479
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$7,670
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,841
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,676/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sullivan West Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600023
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $56,078
• Composite: 40.05/100
• National rank: #3817
• State rank: #436 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hankins

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 309

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 26% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $229,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-21 Listed $249,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,570 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.