407 Sheridan Ave · Niles, OH 44446

$79,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1948 4,451 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Side by side duplex 1 bedroom 1 bath units.

Key facts

• 4,451 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1948

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Condition listed as fixer
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt/fiberglass roof
• Exterior features: Driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 8 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating
• Interior features: Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Has heating system (baseboard)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 1-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $860 ($10k/yr) — positive. Per door: $430/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Cap rate 19.2% vs local median 5.8% in Niles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#628 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Niles City (suburban): math 37% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #507 of 656 in OH (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 129 units permitted in Trumbull County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trumbull County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $79,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.12%
• DSCR: 3.05
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $41,816
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.78×
• Total profit: $106,942
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44446

• Home prices YoY: -19.9%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,742 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $769/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $860

Break-even live

Break-even rent $654

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 46%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	1	1	$1,742
Total (2 units)			$1,742

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $79,900 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 43-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $79,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $769 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,008 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: +$239/yr (+$20/mo · 31.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,904
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$769
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,672
• − Management: −$1,672
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $9,591
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,302
• After-tax cash flow: $8,016/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niles City
• NCES district ID: 3904449
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,965
• Composite: 37.02/100
• National rank: #4517
• State rank: #507 of 656 in OH

Livability — Niles

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #628
• US rank: #11037

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niles, OH
• County: Trumbull County · 61,158 people
• City population: 20,060
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• Population (ZIP): 20,060
• Household income: $50,468
• Rent vs Own: 43.9% rent · 56.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 820.0

Population outlook (Trumbull County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,696 people
• By 2030: 184,015 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 166,810 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 149,857 · -21.8%
• By 2075: 115,769 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 83,617 · -56.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Trumbull

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.2% · R 58.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+6.4 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.52%
• Current HPI: 198.7738
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $79,900 MLSNOW

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $769 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.