3731 Kaylee Rd · Cut and Shoot, TX 77306

$259,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,557 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2022 6,041 sqft lot Est $254k · at est. $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 3731 Kaylee Rd in Conroe! Built in 2022, this beautifully maintained single-story home offers 1,691 square feet of comfortable living space with 2 full bathrooms and an open-concept layout designed for modern living. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining space, creating the perfect setting for everyday living and entertaining. Situated on a 6,100-square-foot lot, this home features a low-maintenance yard, central heating and cooling, and contemporary finishes throughout. The thoughtfully designed floor plan maximizes both functionality and comfort, making it ideal for first-time homebuyers, growing families, or investors. Conveniently located in C

Key facts

• Low-maintenance yard
• Open-concept layout
• 6,041 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LOW-MAINTENANCE YARD
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT CONSTRUCTION
• CENTRAL HEATING AND COOLING
• CONTEMPORARY FINISHES
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Waukegan Way POA with an annual fee of $300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story layout (all main rooms on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2022; Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on first floor
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor); Three additional bedrooms (first floor)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Living room; Dining room; Kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-469/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.9% in Cut and Shoot — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Creighton El (math 31% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 940 students, 92% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 34% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,108 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.64%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $253,791
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3579 Korina Way	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,604 (+3%)	0mo	$235,000	$147	83
14148 Kamilia Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,421 (-9%)	2mo	$256,000	$180	76
14744 S Ascot Bend Cir	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,535 (-1%)	3mo	$241,065	$157	72
14749 S Ascot Bend Cir	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (+0%)	3mo	$249,967	$160	68
2702 Pheasant Hill Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (+0%)	3mo	$238,386	$153	68
3564 Korina Way	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,345 (-14%)	2mo	$215,000	$160	61
855 Waukegan Rd	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,691 (+9%)	2mo	$279,990	$166	61
14716 South Ascot Bend Cir	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (-9%)	2mo	$230,990	$163	53
14700 South Ascot Bend Cir	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (-9%)	1mo	$233,990	$165	52
14720 South Ascot Bend Cir	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (-10%)	2mo	$233,990	$166	52
2627 Rain Quail Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (-10%)	1mo	$233,990	$166	51
14884 North Ascot Bend Cir	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (-10%)	6mo	$229,990	$163	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-44,585
• Equity at exit: $38,765

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-41,897
• Equity at exit: $22,479

Cash invested: $72,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,221 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$297 /mo · $3,563/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,271

Max offer price $253,093

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $108	-5% $35	+0% $-39	+5% $-113	+10% $-186
Rent	-10% $-215	-5% $-127	+0% $-39	+5% $49	+10% $136
Rate	-1.0pp $92	-0.5pp $27	base $-39	+0.5pp $-106	+1.0pp $-175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,998
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15141 Meadow Gln S Conroe, TX	3.0	3.0	1864	$1,961	$1.05	23d	1	0.42mi
14990 N Ascot Bend Cir Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1607	$2,400	$1.49	45d	1	0.53mi
14918 N Ascot Bend Cir Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	1979	$1,955	$0.99	45d	1	0.59mi
343 Parkin Ct Cut and Shoot, TX	3.0	2.0	2014	$1,985	$0.99	45d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $259,990 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,990 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,990 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,990 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,990 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $259,990 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,563 · $297/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,758 · $396/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,194/yr (+$100/mo · 33.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,653
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,563
• − Property taxes: −$3,563
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,132
• − Management: −$2,132
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$7,563
• Taxable loss: −$4,902
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,176
• After-tax cash flow: $708/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $259,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-10 Listed $279,990 HARMLS
• 2021-10-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+89.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,563 · -6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.