215 E Bramble Dr · Paulden, AZ 86334

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · Land · 110 Days on market

Built 1971 $147/sqft · 28% below area Est $166k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

A Prime Opportunity for Builders & Visionaries. This offering includes three contiguous parcels of land, ready for your new construction. The existing manufactured home has served its purpose and is offered as-is, a potential trade-in or removal item, presenting a blank canvas for your dream home or development project. The land is the true asset, with existing water, sewer, electrical, and phone hookups in place. Enjoy the convenience of easy Highway 89 access, just 5 minutes from essential services and 15 minutes from Chino Valley. (Tax Id# 305-03-037f Through 305-03-037h). Lots Are Located In A Great Area And Has Multiple Access to highway 89. I know that Zillow only shows you two of the properties, however that's just an issue with their algorithm. We would make sure that you had all three conjoining parcels. Highlighted in the photos. We are open to reasonable offers. 201 E Bramble Dr, Paulden, AZ 86334 Parcel number: 305-03-037F 215 E Bramble Dr, Paulden, AZ 86334 Parcel number 305-03-037G 229 E Bramble Dr, Paulden, AZ 86334 Parcel number 305-03-037H

Key facts

• Built 1971
• Listed 110 days

Tags

• THREE CONTIGUOUS PARCELS
• EXISTING WATER HOOKUPS
• EXISTING SEWER HOOKUPS
• EXISTING ELECTRICAL HOOKUPS
• EASY HIGHWAY 89 ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $277 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.0% in Paulden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#202 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Chino Valley Unified District (4474) (town): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #112 of 249 in AZ (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 192 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $120k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,200 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.88%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $165,726
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -27.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-1,800
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $21,211
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86334

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25415 N Cedar Dr Paulden, AZ	3.0	2.0	896	$1,400	$1.56	43d	1	0.39mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 108 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 99 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 92 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 91 DOM
17. 2026-02-24
    listed $120,000 Active 1078-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1078 chars)

    A Prime Opportunity for Builders & Visionaries. This offering includes three contiguous parcels of land, ready for your new construction. The existing manufactured home has served its purpose and is offered as-is, a potential trade-in or removal item, presenting a blank canvas for your dream home or development project. The land is the true asset, with existing water, sewer, electrical, and phone hookups in place. Enjoy the convenience of easy Highway 89 access, just 5 minutes from essential services and 15 minutes from Chino Valley. (Tax Id# 305-03-037f Through 305-03-037h). Lots Are Located In A Great Area And Has Multiple Access to highway 89. I know that Zillow only shows you two of the properties, however that's just an issue with their algorithm. We would make sure that you had all three conjoining parcels. Highlighted in the photos. We are open to reasonable offers. 201 E Bramble Dr, Paulden, AZ 86334 Parcel number: 305-03-037F 215 E Bramble Dr, Paulden, AZ 86334 Parcel number 305-03-037G 229 E Bramble Dr, Paulden, AZ 86334 Parcel number 305-03-037H

18. 2016-02-12
    soldstatus $30,000
19. 2010-09-21
    soldstatus $1,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,344
• − Management: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $1,499
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$360
• After-tax cash flow: $2,961/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chino Valley Unified District (4474)
• NCES district ID: 0400003
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,429
• Composite: 25.22/100
• National rank: #7505
• State rank: #112 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Paulden

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #202
• US rank: #20477

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paulden, AZ
• City population: 4,309
• Population (ZIP): 4,309

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Italian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.07%
• Current HPI: 433.9478
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+11900.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Listed $120,000 Fizber.com
• 2016-02-12 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2010-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $1,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $44 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.