1023 N Bay St · Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77617

$445,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,625 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2024 5,998 sqft lot $274/sqft · 30% below area Est $613k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

60x100 lot is located near Rollover Pass. The Gulf is just yards from the Bay, with this property sitting right in the middle. No restrictions, buy out properties all around. Incredible views in every direction.

Key facts

• Large island
• Scenic views
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LARGE ISLAND
• SCENIC VIEWS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; One-story (single level); Built in 2024
• Construction: Cement siding; Composition roof; Built in 2024
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven and electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 13x12); Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (each approx. 12x11)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Washer hookup and electric dryer hookup; Dishwasher; Electric oven and electric range; Microwave
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $445k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (44.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $346k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (44.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.1% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• High Island ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #177 of 1,141 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: High Island School (math 42% / reading 42%, 151 students, 60% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the High Island ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 228 active listings in the ZIP; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($438k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,175 (44.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.29%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $612,528
• List price: $445,000
• Delta: -24.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-16,828
• Equity at exit: $200,091

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $40,338
• Equity at exit: $308,365

Cash invested: $124,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77617

• Active inventory: 228
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,461 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax from tax record: −$661 /mo · $7,928/yr
• Insurance: −$185
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$669 /mo · $8,028/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$727
• Net cashflow: $-1,114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,872

Max offer price $248,175

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-862	-5% $-988	+0% $-1,114	+5% $-1,240	+10% $-1,366
Rent	-10% $-1,388	-5% $-1,251	+0% $-1,114	+5% $-977	+10% $-841
Rate	-1.0pp $-890	-0.5pp $-1,001	base $-1,114	+0.5pp $-1,229	+1.0pp $-1,347

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,250
• Closing costs: $13,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $445,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $445,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $445,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $445,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $445,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $445,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $445,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $445,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $445,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $445,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $445,000 Active 1 DOM
13. 2025-11-10
    price $465,000 587-char remark
14. 2025-08-16
    price $495,000 587-char remark
15. 2025-05-23
    listed $524,900 Active 587-char remark
16. 2016-02-19
    historical 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    60x100 lot is located near Rollover Pass. The Gulf is just yards from the Bay, with this property sitting right in the middle. No restrictions, buy out properties all around. Incredible views in every direction.

17. 2016-02-18
    soldstatus Sold 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    60x100 lot is located near Rollover Pass. The Gulf is just yards from the Bay, with this property sitting right in the middle. No restrictions, buy out properties all around. Incredible views in every direction.

18. 2016-01-26
    status Pending 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    60x100 lot is located near Rollover Pass. The Gulf is just yards from the Bay, with this property sitting right in the middle. No restrictions, buy out properties all around. Incredible views in every direction.

19. 2015-10-28
    price $21,000

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    60x100 lot is located near Rollover Pass. The Gulf is just yards from the Bay, with this property sitting right in the middle. No restrictions, buy out properties all around. Incredible views in every direction.

20. 2015-10-28
    price $21,000 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    60x100 lot is located near Rollover Pass. The Gulf is just yards from the Bay, with this property sitting right in the middle. No restrictions, buy out properties all around. Incredible views in every direction.

21. 2015-06-26
    listed $22,000 Active 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    60x100 lot is located near Rollover Pass. The Gulf is just yards from the Bay, with this property sitting right in the middle. No restrictions, buy out properties all around. Incredible views in every direction.

22. 2007-04-03
    soldstatus
23. 1984-10-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,928 · $661/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,144 · $679/mo
• Expected delta: +$216/yr (+$18/mo · 2.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone VE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,537
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,927
• − Property taxes: −$7,928
• − Insurance: −$10,253
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,323
• − Management: −$3,323
• − Depreciation: −$12,945
• Taxable loss: −$21,162
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,079
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,291/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: High Island ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823160
• Math proficiency: 65% ▲ 30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $49,447
• Composite: 50.69/100
• National rank: #3933
• State rank: #177 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Bolivar Peninsula

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #13437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bolivar Peninsula, TX
• City population: 2,957
• Population (ZIP): 38

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 18% Serbian 18%
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1922.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $445,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $465,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-16 Price Changed $495,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-23 Listed $524,900 HARMLS
• 2016-02-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2016-02-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-01-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-10-28 Price Changed $21,000 Galveston MLS
• 2015-10-28 Price Changed $21,000 HARMLS
• 2015-06-26 Listed $22,000 HARMLS
• 2007-04-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1984-10-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+53.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,928 · +2231.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.