4012 San Fernando St · San Antonio, TX 78237

$134,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,950 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 170 Days on market

Built 1950 6,534 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

THIS IS AN ABSOLUTELY A GOLD IN THE ROUGH; HOWEVER, PLEASE BE VERY CAREFUL WHEN SHOWING/WALKING THE BUILDING. THE PROPERTY WILL BE SOLD ABSOLUTELY IN AS-IS CONDITION. NO GUARANTY/WARANTY OF ANY KIND IMPLIED. AND I THANK YOU FOR SHOWING.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 169 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Down payment assistance resources available
• HOA & community: Subdivision: WEST LAWN AREA 5

Exterior

• Utilities: Water system
• Home design: Pre-owned; Approximate age: 75 years
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Siding exterior; Park/playground nearby

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (16 x 12)
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level with ceiling fan (18 x 13); Bedroom 2 (13 x 11); Bedroom 3 (14 x 12); Bedroom 4 (13 x 12); Bedroom 5 (12 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpeting; Ceramic tile; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with tub/shower combination (13 x 12)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living/dining room combination; Walk-in pantry; Cable TV available; Telephone service
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-210/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (6.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Edgewood ISD (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #812 of 826 in TX (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Las Palmas Leadership School For Girls (229 students, 91% FRL, charter) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 24% district-wide (66 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 127 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.56%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 6.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $76,537
• Equity at exit: $121,529

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.24×
• Total profit: $235,867
• Equity at exit: $262,081

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78237

• Home prices YoY: 14.1%
• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,265 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$253 /mo · $3,041/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $-17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,287

Max offer price $131,811

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3314 Perez St Unit 101 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1943	$1,050	$0.54	22d	1	0.91mi
3314 Perez St #102 San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	1943	$850	$0.44	22d	1	0.91mi
1906 Montezuma St San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.5	1790	$1,300	$0.73	44d	1	0.94mi
2323 Arbor Pl Unit 2 San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	2190	$750	$0.34	44d	1	1.17mi
2323 Arbor St Unit 3 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	2190	$1,050	$0.48	44d	1	1.17mi
2811 Buena Vista St San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1750	$2,350	$1.34	24d	1	1.24mi
2910 S Laredo St Unit 2 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	2127	$1,295	$0.61	3d	1	1.33mi
143 Huntington St Unit 101 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2298	$1,550	$0.67	44d	1	1.40mi
2425 Monterey St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,000	$1.41	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,900 Active 170 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,900 Active 169 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,900 Active 168 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,900 Active 167 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,900 Active 165 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $134,900 Active 164 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,900 Active 161 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,900 Active 160 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,900 Active 159 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $134,900 Active 158 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $134,900 Active 155 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,900 Active 154 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,900 Active 153 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    remarks 236-char remark
15. 2026-05-31
    listed $134,900 Active 152 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,041 · $253/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,041 · $253/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,183
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$3,041
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,215
• − Management: −$1,215
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable loss: −$2,442
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$586
• After-tax cash flow: $376/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edgewood ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818150
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $27,419
• Composite: 12.82/100
• National rank: #9597
• State rank: #812 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,379
• Household income: $42,772
• Rent vs Own: 38.7% rent · 61.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1185.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 95% Two or more races 50% White 3% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 84%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 66%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 30.52%
• Current HPI: 247.7257
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.13%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-29 Listed $134,900 LERA

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,041 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.