154 Davenport Rd · Holiday City South, NJ 08757

$270,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,328 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1986 4,791 sqft lot Est $356k · 24% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Comfortable Capri model in popular Holiday City South features front flex room for office/den or spare bedroom, large open livingroom/dingingroom and 2 huge bedrooms. Brand new HWBB gas heat and hot water heater, Community has clubhouse, pool, tennis, bingo and close to tons of shopping. Ready for personal touches and updates!

Key facts

• Community pool
• Community clubhouse
• Front flex room

Tags

• FRONT FLEX ROOM
• LARGE OPEN LIVINGROOM
• COMMUNITY CLUBHOUSE
• COMMUNITY POOL
• COMMUNITY TENNIS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA with clubhouse and community room; Quarterly HOA fee ($75) covering trash, common area, lawn maintenance, pool, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership; Model: CAPRI
• Construction: Crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooking; Stove; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Linoleum; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Window treatments and blinds/shades; Light fixtures; Garage door opener
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $114 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (9.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (9.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.9% in Holiday City South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#302 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Central Regional School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #357 of 472 in NJ (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Regional Middle School (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #279 of 431 statewide, top 66%, 716 students, 37% FRL); Central Regional High School (math 15% / reading 39%, grade F, #312 of 399 statewide, top 79%, 1,606 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 509 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,444/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1010% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $270k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,367 (9.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.81%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $355,904
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
154 Davenport Rd	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,328 (0%)	1mo	$251,500	$189	99
11 Selkirk Ave	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,328 (0%)	1mo	$410,000	$309	90
73 San Carlos St	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,232 (-7%)	1mo	$330,000	$268	79
3 Woodstock Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,232 (-7%)	1mo	$368,000	$299	75
5 Templeton St	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,232 (-7%)	1mo	$300,000	$244	75
18 Pulaski Blvd	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,364 (+3%)	1mo	$290,000	$213	74
115 San Carlos St	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,232 (-7%)	1mo	$360,000	$292	70
16 Calalou Ct	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,232 (-7%)	1mo	$390,000	$317	69
165 Pulaski Blvd	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,324 (-0%)	0mo	$320,000	$242	67
6 Speighstown Pl	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,232 (-7%)	0mo	$295,000	$239	64
49 Sabinas St	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,232 (-7%)	1mo	$267,000	$217	61
8 Newbury Ct	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,509 (+14%)	1mo	$420,000	$278	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-36,498
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-22,424
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08757

• Active inventory: 509
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,444 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$263 /mo · $3,160/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,300

Max offer price $270,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $267	-5% $190	+0% $114	+5% $37	+10% $-39
Rent	-10% $-79	-5% $17	+0% $114	+5% $210	+10% $307
Rate	-1.0pp $250	-0.5pp $182	base $114	+0.5pp $44	+1.0pp $-27

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12 Mayaquez Ln Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1364	$2,100	$1.54	0d	1	0.34mi
43 Stockport Dr Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1559	$2,500	$1.60	0d	1	0.57mi
2 York St Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.5	1105	$2,200	$1.99	0d	1	0.84mi
59 Guadeloupe Dr Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1126	$2,300	$2.04	0d	1	1.02mi
146 Attison Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1376	$2,500	$1.82	8d	1	1.35mi
510 Jamaica Blvd Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1264	$2,500	$1.98	0d	1	1.40mi
159 Fort de France Ave Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1440	$2,475	$1.72	8d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: watergaspool

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   listed $270,000 Active
3. 2006-03-16
   soldstatus $170,000
4. 1991-12-24
   soldstatus $85,900
5. 1986-08-01
   soldstatus $73,990

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,160 · $263/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,941 · $412/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,782/yr (+$148/mo · 56.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,324
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$3,160
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,346
• − Management: −$2,346
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$3,156
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$757
• After-tax cash flow: $2,123/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3402910
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,676
• Composite: 25.59/100
• National rank: #7422
• State rank: #357 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Holiday City South

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #302
• US rank: #9268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday City South, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 36,087
• Household income: $58,319
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1010.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -429.32%
• Current HPI: 305.1341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+264.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $270,000 MOMLS
• 2006-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 1991-12-24 Sold (Public Records) $85,900 Public Records
• 1986-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $73,990 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,160 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.