13589 Point Lookout Rd · St. George Island, MD 20680

$269,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,472 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1986 5.15 ac lot Est $353k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor alert with major rehab project. The roof has been replaced in the past year. It is a 2 bedroom but was a 3 bedroom at one time. A wall could be put back up to separate the rooms again. There is a sunroom on the rear of the home. Heat pump is removed. Many of the the floor joists need replacing. Nice level lot on 1.43 Acres not 5 Acres that backs to the woods. Built in 1986. 1 car garage and expansive carport that could be enclosed for an attached 4 car garage. This is being sold strictly as -is. CASH or FHA 203K loan. Serious inquiries only.

Key facts

• Backs to woods
• Expansive carport
• Level lot

Tags

• SUNROOM
• LEVEL LOT
• BACKS TO WOODS
• EXPANSIVE CARPORT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Road maintenance agreement; Ground rent paid annually

Exterior

• Parking: Front-entry attached garage (1 car); Attached carport parking (4 spaces); Total of 5 garage/parking spaces; Concrete, shared, and dirt driveway access
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system; Electric for heating, cooling, and hot water; No municipal trash service
• Home design: Detached property; Architectural shingle roof; Built as recorded by assessor
• Construction: Brick construction; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Backs to trees; Above-grade and below-grade structures noted

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level; Master bedroom
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level); Master bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Living room; Dining room; Sun/Florida room; Fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $374 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (0.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $269k (0.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 1.6% in St. George Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spring Ridge Middle (math 15% / reading 39%, grade F, #81 of 225 statewide, top 38%, 987 students, 60% FRL); Great Mills High (math 42% / reading 55%, grade D, #111 of 222 statewide, top 50%, 1,779 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 28% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $75k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 79% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $268,606 (0.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.95%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $353,280
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
49219 Bennett Dr	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,458 (-1%)	16mo	$349,900	$240	71
49461 Bayne Rd	0.75mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,592 (+8%)	10mo	$239,000	$150	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $30,520
• Equity at exit: $93,655

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $109,752
• Equity at exit: $125,881

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20680

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,686 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,706/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$564
• Net cashflow: $374

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,213

Max offer price $269,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $269,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $269,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $269,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   remarks 559-char remark
10. 2026-06-08
    listed $269,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,706 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,819 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: +$113/yr (+$9/mo · 4.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 79% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,233
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$2,706
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,579
• − Management: −$2,579
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable income: $131
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$31
• After-tax cash flow: $4,453/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Mary'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400600
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,240
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6444
• State rank: #8 of 24 in MD

Livability — St. George Island

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 702

Population outlook (St. Mary's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,125 people
• By 2030: 128,374 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 137,305 · +11.5%
• By 2050: 143,065 · +16.2%
• By 2075: 153,408 · +24.6%
• By 2100: 151,790 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Mary's

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.2% · R 57.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.13%
• Current HPI: 291.229
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $269,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,706 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.